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91Ó°ÊÓ

For a normal distribution with mean \(\mu\) and variance \(\sigma^{2}=25,\) an experimenter wishes to test \(H_{0}:\) \(\mu=10\) versus \(H_{a}: \mu=5 .\) Find the sample size \(n\) for which the most powerful test will have \(\alpha=\beta=.025\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sample size needed is 16.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We are given a normal distribution with mean \(\mu\) and variance \(\sigma^2 = 25\). We need to determine the sample size \(n\) for which the most powerful test for testing \(H_0: \mu = 10\) against \(H_a: \mu = 5\) has type I error \(\alpha = 0.025\) and type II error \(\beta = 0.025\).
02

Z-Value for Given Alpha

Since \(\alpha = 0.025\), we find the critical value for this level of significance using a standard normal distribution table. The critical value \(z_{\alpha}\) for \(\alpha = 0.025\) in a one-tailed test is approximately 1.96.
03

Z-Value for Given Beta

Similarly, we find the value of \(z_\beta\) corresponding to \(\beta = 0.025\). From the standard normal distribution table, the critical value \(z_{\beta}\) is approximately 1.96 for a one-tailed test.
04

Apply Neyman-Pearson Lemma

According to the Neyman-Pearson Lemma, the most powerful test for simple hypotheses involves comparing the sample mean \(\bar{x}\) to a critical value. The separation between \(\mu_0\) and \(\mu_a\) for the test is adjusted using the formula:\[\sqrt{n} = \frac{(z_{\alpha} + z_{\beta}) \cdot \sigma}{\mu_0 - \mu_a}\]where \(\sigma = 5\) and \(\mu_0 - \mu_a = 10 - 5 = 5\).
05

Solve for Sample Size n

Plug in the values into the equation:\[\sqrt{n} = \frac{(1.96 + 1.96) \cdot 5}{5}\]Simplify the equation:\[\sqrt{n} = \frac{(3.92) \cdot 5}{5} = 3.92\]Square both sides to solve for \(n\):\[n = (3.92)^2 = 15.3664\]Round up the sample size to obtain an integer value, \(n = 16\).
06

Conclusion

The sample size needed to achieve \(\alpha = 0.025\) and \(\beta = 0.025\) with the given test is 16.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
Normal distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, is a fundamental concept in statistics. It is defined by its bell-shaped curve, where the data is symmetrically distributed around the mean. The parameters that define a normal distribution are the mean \(\mu\), which represents the center of the distribution, and the variance \(\sigma^2\), which indicates how much the data spreads out from the mean. In this exercise, our distribution has a mean \(\mu\) of either 10 or 5 depending on the hypothesis, and a given variance of 25.
When dealing with hypothesis testing related to normal distribution, calculations often involve Z-scores. These Z-scores represent the number of standard deviations away from the mean a particular point is. This makes normal distributions particularly useful in hypothesis testing, as they allow for the calculation of probabilities and critical values that play an important role in decision making during tests.
A normal distribution is an essential element to hypothesis testing, providing the groundwork for determining sample sizes and type of errors, such as the ones observed in this problem.
Neyman-Pearson Lemma
The Neyman-Pearson Lemma is a powerful tool in statistics that helps to identify the most appropriate test for hypothesis testing. It is primarily concerned with maximizing the probability of correctly identifying the alternative hypothesis when it is true. In other words, this lemma seeks the most powerful test, which provides the greatest probability of detecting an effect when there is one.
In this problem, the Neyman-Pearson Lemma is applied to compare the null hypothesis \(H_0: \mu = 10\) against the alternative hypothesis \(H_a: \mu = 5\). It involves computing and comparing sample mean observations to a threshold value derived from both critical values for the type I (\(\alpha\)) and type II (\(\beta\)) errors. This threshold is instrumental in determining our sample size \(n\), ensuring that the chosen test maintains specified error rates.
By adhering to the principles of the Neyman-Pearson Lemma, experimenters ensure that their hypothesis tests are as effective as possible, given their constraints on error probabilities.
Type I Error
A type I error arises in hypothesis testing when a true null hypothesis is incorrectly rejected. This is analogous to a false positive result. The probability of making a type I error is denoted by \(\alpha\), which is also known as the level of significance. In the provided exercise, \(\alpha\) is set at 0.025, implying that there's a 2.5% risk of rejecting the true null hypothesis \(H_0: \mu = 10\).
Preventing type I errors is crucial, especially in fields where incorrect rejection of the null hypothesis could lead to significant consequences, such as in medical trials. Therefore, setting an appropriate \(\alpha\) level is a critical decision for researchers. It balances between being overly conservative and maintaining sufficient sensitivity to detect true effects.
In our scenario, the selection of 0.025 indicates a stringent criterion, prioritizing the accuracy of not falsely detecting an effect when there is none.
Type II Error
A type II error occurs when a false null hypothesis is incorrectly accepted. This is known as a false negative result. The probability of making a type II error is represented by \(\beta\). In the scenario discussed, \(\beta\) is also set at 0.025, meaning there is a 2.5% probability of accepting a false null hypothesis \(H_0: \mu = 10\) when the alternative \(H_a: \mu = 5\) is true.
To minimize type II errors, one typically strives for more powerful tests, which are tests arranged to have sufficient sensitivity to detect true effects. The power of a test is calculated as \(1 - \beta\), representing the probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis.
In this problem, setting \(\beta\) and \(\alpha\) to levels of 0.025 allows the experimenter to achieve a balance between minimizing the risk of errors, thus ensuring that both sensitivity and specificity are maintained for the hypothesis test.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The hourly wages in a particular industry are normally distributed with mean \(\$ 13.20\) and standard deviation \(\$ 2.50 .\) A company in this industry employs 40 workers, paying them an average of \(\$ 12.20\) per hour. Can this company be accused of paying substandard wages? Use an \(\alpha=.01\) level test.

A manufacturer claimed that at least \(20 \%\) of the public preferred her product. A sample of 100 persons is taken to check her claim. With \(\alpha=.05,\) how small would the sample percentage need to be before the claim could legitimately be refuted? (Notice that this would involve a one- tailed test of the hypothesis.)

High airline occupancy rates on scheduled flights are essential for profitability. Suppose that a scheduled flight must average at least \(60 \%\) occupancy to be profitable and that an examination of the occupancy rates for 12010: 00 A.M. flights from Atlanta to Dallas showed mean occupancy rate per flight of \(58 \%\) and standard deviation \(11 \% .\) Test to see if sufficient evidence exists to support a claim that the flight is unprofitable. Find the \(p\) -value associated with the test. What would you conclude if you wished to implement the test at the \(\alpha=.10\) level?

The output voltage for an electric circuit is specified to be \(130 .\) A sample of 40 independent readings on the voltage for this circuit gave a sample mean 128.6 and standard deviation \(2.1 .\) Test the hypothesis that the average output voltage is 130 against the alternative that it is less than \(130 .\) Use a test with level. \(05 .\)

True or False. a. If the \(p\) -value for a test is .036 , the null hypothesis can be rejected at the \(\alpha=.05\) level of significance. b. In a formal test of hypothesis, \(\alpha\) is the probability that the null hypothesis is incorrect. c. If the \(p\) -value is very small for a test to compare two population means, the difference between the means must be large. d. Power \(\left(\theta^{*}\right)\) is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected when \(\theta=\theta^{*}\). e. Power( \((\theta)\) is always computed by assuming that the null hypothesis is true. f. If \(.01 < p\) -value \( < .025\), the null hypothesis can always be rejected at the \(\alpha=.02\) level of significance. g. Suppose that a test is a uniformly most powerful \(\alpha\) -level test regarding the value of a parameter \(\theta .\) If \(\theta_{a}\) is a value in the alternative hypothesis, \(\beta\left(\theta_{a}\right)\) might be smaller for some other \(\alpha\) -level test. h. When developing a likelihood ratio test, it is possible that \(L\left(\widehat{\Omega}_{0}\right) > L(\widehat{\Omega})\) i. \(-2 \ln (\lambda)\) is always positive.

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