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Michael Sosin \(^{\star}\) investigated determinants that account for individuals' making a transition from having a home (domiciled) but using meal programs to becoming homeless. The following table contains the data obtained in the study. Is there sufficient evidence to indicate that the proportion of those currently working is larger for domiciled men than for homeless men? Use \(\alpha=.01\) $$\begin{array}{lcc} \hline & \begin{array}{c} \text { Homeless } \\ \text { Men } \end{array} & \text { Domiciled Men } \\ \hline \text { Sample size } & 112 & 260 \\ \text { Number currently working } & 34 & 98 \\ \hline \end{array}$$

Short Answer

Expert verified
There is insufficient evidence to conclude that domiciled men have a higher proportion of those currently working.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Hypotheses

We need to set up the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis \( H_0 \) states that the proportion of currently working domiciled men is equal to the proportion of currently working homeless men. The alternative hypothesis \( H_a \) claims that the proportion is greater for domiciled men. Mathematically, this is \( H_0: p_1 = p_2 \) and \( H_a: p_1 > p_2 \), where \( p_1 \) and \( p_2 \) are the proportions of currently working domiciled and homeless men, respectively.
02

Calculate the Sample Proportions

Next, we calculate the sample proportions of men who are currently working in both groups. For domiciled men, the proportion \( \hat{p}_1 \) is \( \frac{98}{260} \) and for homeless men, the proportion \( \hat{p}_2 \) is \( \frac{34}{112} \). This results in \( \hat{p}_1 \approx 0.377 \) and \( \hat{p}_2 \approx 0.304 \).
03

Determine the Pooled Proportion

The pooled proportion \( \hat{p} \) is calculated using the total number of successes and total sample size, \( \hat{p} = \frac{98 + 34}{260 + 112} = \frac{132}{372} \approx 0.355 \).
04

Calculate the Test Statistic

The test statistic for comparing two proportions can be calculated as: \[ z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{\sqrt{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})\left(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}\right)}} \] Substituting the known values: \[ z = \frac{0.377 - 0.304}{\sqrt{0.355(1 - 0.355)\left(\frac{1}{260} + \frac{1}{112}\right)}} \] After calculation, we find \( z \approx 1.452 \).
05

Determine the Critical Value

For a significance level of \( \alpha = 0.01 \) in a one-tailed test, the critical value from the z-table is approximately 2.33.
06

Compare Test Statistic with Critical Value

Compare the calculated z-test statistic with the critical z-value. If \( z \) is greater than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis. Here, since \( 1.452 < 2.33 \), we do not reject the null hypothesis.
07

Conclusion

There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the proportion of those currently working is larger for domiciled men than for homeless men at \( \alpha = 0.01 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Proportion Comparison
Proportion comparison is a crucial statistical method used to examine if there are significant differences between two groups based on a particular characteristic.
In the context of the exercise, we are interested in determining if there is a difference between the proportions of domiciled men and homeless men who are currently working.
To achieve this, we assess the sample proportions from the given data: 98 out of 260 domiciled men are working, yielding a proportion of approximately 0.377, whereas 34 out of 112 homeless men are working, resulting in a proportion of approximately 0.304.
These individual sample proportions are key indicators that help us to set the foundation for further statistical testing, providing a basis for the next steps in hypothesis verification.
Z-Test
The z-test is a statistical procedure used to determine whether there is a significant difference between the means or proportions of two groups.
In this case, we employ the z-test to compare these proportions and ascertain statistical significance.
Calculating the z-test statistic involves determining the difference between the two sample proportions and dividing this by the standard error of the difference.
  • Formula for the test statistic: \[ z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{\sqrt{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})\left(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}\right)}} \]
  • Here, \( \hat{p} \) is the pooled proportion, which combines successes from both groups divided by the total sample size.
The z-test helps to determine if the observed difference between proportions is large enough to reject the null hypothesis, by calculating and comparing this statistic to a critical value from the z-table.
Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted by \( \alpha \), is the threshold for determining whether a result is statistically significant.
It reflects the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true, thus defining the risk level you are willing to take in making a type I error.
  • Common significance levels used are 0.05, 0.01, and 0.10.
  • In our exercise, the significance level is set at 0.01, indicating a stricter criterion for ruling out random chance.
This means we want a 99% confidence that our conclusion is correct. The critical value at \( \alpha = 0.01 \) for a one-tailed z-test is approximately 2.33.
If the z-test statistic exceeds this critical value, it suggests sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Hypothesis testing begins with clearly defining the null and alternative hypotheses.
These hypotheses provide a structured framework for analysis and decision-making.
  • The null hypothesis \( H_0 \) assumes no effect or difference, serving as a default position. In our exercise, it states that the proportion of working domiciled men is equal to the proportion of working homeless men \( (p_1 = p_2) \).
  • The alternative hypothesis \( H_a \) suggests that there is an effect or difference, which we are interested in proving. Here, it indicates that the working proportion is greater in domiciled men \( (p_1 > p_2) \).
Careful formulation of these hypotheses is vital, as they guide the statistical analysis and interpretation of results.
Inferences based on the test outcomes are drawn by comparing the test statistic against critical values, leading to either rejecting the null hypothesis or not.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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