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Diabetes and unemployment. A 2012 Gallup poll surveyed Americans about their employment status and whether or not they have diabetes. The survey results indicate that \(1.5 \%\) of the 47,774 employed (full or part time) and \(2.5 \%\) of the 5,855 unemployed \(18-29\) year olds have diabetes. (a) Create a two-way table presenting the results of this study. (b) State appropriate hypotheses to test for independence of incidence of diabetes and employment status. (c) The sample difference is about \(1 \%\). If we completed the hypothesis test, we would find that the p-value is very small (about 0 ), meaning the difference is statistically significant. Use this result to explain the difference between statistically significant and practically significant findings.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) A two-way table summarizes the data. (b) Hypotheses: \( H_0 \), diabetes and employment are independent; \( H_a \), they are not. (c) Statistical significance indicates low probability of random occurrence, not practical relevance.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Survey Data

We have two groups from the survey: employed and unemployed Americans. The number of employed people surveyed is 47,774, and the number of unemployed surveyed is 5,855. We also know that 1.5% of the employed group and 2.5% of the unemployed group reported having diabetes.
02

Calculate the Number with Diabetes

For the employed group, calculate the number of individuals with diabetes: \[47,774 \times 0.015 = 716.61 \approx 717\].For the unemployed group, calculate the number of individuals with diabetes: \[5,855 \times 0.025 = 146.375 \approx 146\].
03

Create the Two-Way Table

We now set up a two-way table to organize the survey results.\[\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|}\hline& \text{Diabetes} & \text{No Diabetes} & \text{Total} \\hline\text{Employed} & 717 & 47,774 - 717 = 47,057 & 47,774 \\hline\text{Unemployed} & 146 & 5,855 - 146 = 5,709 & 5,855 \\hline\end{array}\]The totals for those without diabetes can also be calculated by subtracting those with diabetes from the total of each group.
04

State the Hypotheses

The null hypothesis \(H_0\) is that diabetes incidence is independent of employment status. The alternative hypothesis \(H_a\) is that diabetes incidence is not independent of employment status.
05

Explain Statistical and Practical Significance

The study shows a p-value near zero, indicating the difference in diabetes rates between employed and unemployed is statistically significant, meaning such a difference would rarely occur by chance under the null hypothesis. However, statistical significance does not imply practical significance. Even a minor, statistically significant difference may not be impactful or meaningful in real-world terms.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistical Significance
Statistical significance helps us understand if the differences observed in study results are likely to have occurred by pure chance. In the survey regarding diabetes among employed and unemployed Americans, the difference in diabetes rates (1.5% vs. 2.5%) has a very small p-value, almost zero. This means that the probability of observing a difference this large or larger, purely by random variation under the assumption that there is no real difference, is very low.

When scientists claim that a result is statistically significant, they are saying it is unlikely caused by random chance. However, statistical significance doesn't always mean the difference is practically important. It's crucial to distinguish between these two concepts, as a statistically significant result may not have a large enough effect to impact real-world decision-making or policy changes. Thus, while statistical significance tells us that the data suggests a certain relationship, it doesn't tell us about the magnitude or practical implications of that relationship.
Two-Way Table
A two-way table is a simple yet powerful tool for organizing data, making it easier to visualize relationships between two categorical variables. In the study about diabetes rates between employed and unemployed individuals, a two-way table helps to compare these groups in terms of their diabetes status.

The table is divided into sections, each representing a combination of outcomes:
  • The first row shows data for employed individuals, indicating how many have diabetes and how many do not.
  • The second row provides similar data for unemployed individuals.
This layout simplifies the process of comparing the groups by presenting both the raw data and calculated percentages side by side. By analyzing the two-way table, researchers can identify any apparent relationships between employment status and the prevalence of diabetes.
Null Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis is a default statement suggesting there is no effect or no difference between groups. For the diabetes and employment study, the null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) posits that the incidence of diabetes is independent of employment status. In other words, being employed or unemployed does not affect an individual's likelihood of having diabetes.

The role of the null hypothesis is not to be proven but rather to be tested. Researchers collect data and perform statistical tests to determine whether there's enough evidence to reject this null statement, in favor of an alternative hypothesis (\( H_a \)), which suggests the opposite, meaning a relationship does exist. If the test results in a p-value that is small enough (commonly less than 0.05), the null hypothesis can be rejected, indicating statistical evidence for a difference or relationship.
P-Value
The p-value is a crucial component of hypothesis testing as it helps us determine the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of observing the given results, or something more extreme, if the null hypothesis were true. In the survey example, the tiny p-value implies that such a difference in diabetes rates between the employed and unemployed would rarely happen by chance.

A p-value closer to zero indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis. Conventionally, a p-value less than 0.05 is considered statistically significant. In practical terms, this means researchers would reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is a significant effect or association. However, it's essential to interpret the p-value in context, acknowledging that statistical significance doesn't always mean practical relevance or importance.

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