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According to the American Veterinary Medical Association, \(36 \%\) of Americans own a dog. a. Find the probability that exactly 4 out of 10 randomly selected Americans own a dog. b. In a random sample of 10 Americans, find the probability that 4 or fewer own a dog.

Short Answer

Expert verified
For part a, after calculating with the binomial formula, we obtain the exact probability for 4 out of 10 Americans to own a dog. For part b, the result is obtained by summing up the binomial probabilities for the cases of 0 to 4 Americans owning a dog.

Step by step solution

01

Identifying the variables

We identify the variables as follows: n (number of trials) = 10, k (number of 'successes') = 4, p (probability of 'success') = 0.36.
02

Calculation of binomial probability for exactly 4 successes

The binomial probability P(X=k) for exactly k successes is given by the formula: P(X=k) = \(C(n, k) * p^{k} * (1 - p)^{n - k}\). Plugging our values in: P(X=4) = \(C(10, 4) * 0.36^{4} * (1 - 0.36)^{10 - 4}\). Here, \(C(10, 4)\) stands for the number of combinations of 10 items taken 4 at a time.
03

Calculate binomial probability for 4 or fewer

For part b, we need to find the probability that 4 or fewer own a dog. That means we need to sum up the probabilities for X=0, X=1, X=2, X=3, and X=4. So calculate this probability using the binomial formula for each X and then sum them up: P(X ≤ 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Unlocking the Mysteries of Probability Theory
Probability theory is the mathematical framework that allows us to analyze randomness and uncertainty. It equips students with the tools to predict the likelihood of certain events occurring. In our daily lives, this could range from estimating the chance of rain on a particular day, to calculating the odds of winning a game of chance.

At its core, probability is represented as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates an impossibility and 1 signifies certainty. The probability of an event A, denoted as P(A), is calculated by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes, assuming each outcome is equally likely.

For example, the exercise you're looking at deals with the probability of Americans owning a dog. With the given statistics from the American Veterinary Medical Association, we can determine how likely — or unlikely — any given number of Americans out of a sample own a dog, using the principles of this theory.
The Role of Binomial Distribution in Probability
The binomial distribution is a cornerstone concept within probability theory, particularly when dealing with a fixed number of independent trials or experiments, which either result in a 'success' or a 'failure'. The exercise we're dissecting spotlights this distribution in a real-world scenario.

When we talk about binomial distribution, there are a few key parameters to consider: the number of trials (n), the probability of success in each trial (p), and the number of successes we're interested in (k). The formula for calculating the probability of obtaining exactly k successes is:
\[P(X=k) = C(n, k) \cdot p^k \cdot (1 - p)^{n - k}\]
This formula not only calculates the probability but also incorporates combinatorics, which is essential in understanding the different ways 'successes' can be achieved during the trials.

Applying the binomial formula to our veterinary example clarifies the probability of exactly 4 out of 10 Americans owning a dog, using the given probability of success (dog ownership) as 36%.
Combinatorics: The Art of Counting
Combinatorics, often considered a part of discrete mathematics, revolves around counting, arranging, and combining objects following specific rules. This field is fundamentally linked to probability and helps solve problems where order and selection are focal points.

In terms of our ongoing discussion, combinatorics is used to calculate the number of ways we can select k successes out of n trials, which is essential for determining binomial probabilities. The commonly used function in combinatorics is the combination, denoted as C(n, k) or sometimes written as \( \binom{n}{k} \), which represents the number of ways to choose k items from a set of n distinct items without regard to the order. In the dog ownership exercise, it tells us how many ways we can find 4 dog owners in a group of 10 people.

The calculation for a combination is given by: \[C(n, k) = \frac{n!}{k! \cdot (n - k)!}\]
where '!' denotes factorial, the product of all positive integers up to that number. Combinatorics plays a key role not only in probability but across various domains like computer science, cryptography, and even biology.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Alaska Airlines has an on-time arrival rate of \(88 \%\). Assume that in one day, this airline has 1200 flights. Suppose we pick one day in December and find the number of ontime Alaska Airline arrivals. Why would it be inappropriate to use the binomial model to find the probability that at least 1100 of the 1200 flights arrive on time? What condition or conditions for use of the binomial model is or are not met?

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