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In 2017 a pollution index was calculated for a sample of cities in the western states using data on air and water pollution. Assume the distribution of pollution indices is unimodal and symmetric. The mean of the distribution was \(43.0\) points with a standard deviation of \(11.3\) points. a. What percentage of western cities would you expect to have a pollution index between \(31.7\) and \(54.3\) points? b. What percentage of western cities would you expect to have a pollution index between \(20.4\) and \(65.6\) ? c. The pollution index for San Jose in 2017 was \(51.9\) points. Based on this distribution, was this unusually high? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. About \(68\%\) of the western cities would have a pollution index within the range \(31.7\) - \(54.3\) points. b. About \(95\%\) of the western cities would have a pollution index within range \(20.4\) - \(65.6\) points. c. San Jose's Pollution Index was not unusually high in 2017 as it was less than two standard deviations away from the mean.

Step by step solution

01

Set up problem

First, understand that in a Normal Distribution, about \(68\%\) of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, about \(95\%\) falls within two standard deviations, and about \(99.7\%\) falls within three standard deviations. This is called the empirical rule or 68-95-99.7 rule.
02

Calculate percentage for range \(31.7\) - \(54.3\)

The lower bound equals the mean minus one standard deviation, \(43.0 - 11.3 = 31.7\), and the upper bound equals the mean plus one standard deviation, \(43.0 + 11.3 = 54.3\). So the percentage of cities that are expected to have a pollution index between \(31.7\) and \(54.3\) points is \(68\%\), according to the empirical rule.
03

Calculate percentage for range \(20.4\) - \(65.6\)

The lower bound equals the mean minus two standard deviations, \(43.0 - 2*11.3 = 20.4\), and the upper bound equals the mean plus two standard deviations, \(43.0 + 2*11.3 = 65.6\). So the percentage of cities that are expected to have a pollution index between \(20.4\) and \(65.6\) points is \(95\%\), according to the empirical rule.
04

Determine if San Jose's Pollution Index is unusually high

To determine if San Jose's Pollution Index was unusually high, calculate how many standard deviations it is away from the mean: \( (51.9-43.0)/11.3 = 0.79 \) standard deviations away from the mean. Typically, a value is considered 'unusual' if it's more than two standard deviations away from the mean. Since the Pollution Index of San Jose is less than two standard deviations above the mean, it's not unusually high.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Empirical Rule
The Empirical Rule, also known as the 68-95-99.7 rule, is a key concept in statistics that helps to understand the distribution of data in a normal distribution. The rule states that:
  • About 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean.
  • Approximately 95% of the data is within two standard deviations.
  • Nearly 99.7% is within three standard deviations.
This rule is useful because it gives us a quick way to estimate the proportion of data within a certain range.
For instance, when given a mean and standard deviation, you can easily find out what percentage of data lies between particular points by calculating the bounds with these deviation levels. Understanding the Empirical Rule is fundamental for interpreting and predicting data trends in any normally distributed dataset.
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is a measure that tells us how dispersed the data points are around the mean of a dataset. It provides insights into the spread or variability of the data points.
When the standard deviation is small, the data points are close to the mean.A larger standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a wide range of values.
The formula for standard deviation in a sample is:\[s = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} (x_i - \bar{x})^2}\]Where:
  • \(x_i\) is each individual data point,
  • \(\bar{x}\) is the mean of the dataset,
  • and \(N\) is the number of data points.
In the context of pollution indices, a standard deviation can reveal how much variation or "spread" exists from the average pollution level across different cities.Understanding these variations is crucial for analyzing environmental data effectively.
Mean
The Mean, often referred to as the average, is a measure of central tendency that gives a single value summarizing the data distribution. To calculate the mean, you sum all the data points and divide by the number of points.The formula is:\[\bar{x} = \frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=1}^{N} x_i\]Where:
  • \(x_i\) represents each data point,
  • and \(N\) is the total number of points.
The mean provides a central value for easy comparison.In our air and water pollution index exercise, the mean index score is 43.This gives an initial insight into the central tendency of pollution levels in the analyzed cities.The mean is an essential statistic for summarizing a dataset and comparing it across different environments or timeframes.
Statistical Analysis
Statistical Analysis involves collecting and examining data to identify patterns and trends. It’s the backbone of making informed decisions based on data.
In the pollution index example, statistical analysis would involve using techniques such as calculating the mean, standard deviation, and applying the Empirical Rule to understand how pollution indices vary across cities.
Through such analysis, one can determine the likelihood of a city having a pollution index within a specific range, or assess unusual scores like the case of San Jose.
Effective statistical analysis helps:
  • spot outliers,
  • predict future outcomes,
  • formulate policies or strategies to address issues.
Applying statistical tools enriches our understanding of data, turning raw numbers into valuable insights for environmental science and beyond.

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