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In 2017 a pollution index was calculated for a sample of cities in the eastern states using data on air and water pollution. Assume the distribution of pollution indices is unimodal and symmetric. The mean of the distribution was \(35.9\) points with a standard deviation of \(11.6\) points. (Source: numbeo. com) see Guidance page \(142 .\) a. What percentage of eastern cities would you expect to have a pollution index between \(12.7\) and \(59.1\) points? b. What percentage of castern cities would you expect to have a pollution index between \(24.3\) and \(47.5\) points? c. The pollution index for New York, in 2017 was \(58.7\) points. Based on this distribution, was this unusually high? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 95% b. 68% c. The pollution index for New York can be considered high but not unusually high by the empirical rule 68-95-99.7, as the z-score of about 2 is still within 95% of the data.

Step by step solution

01

Calculation for Range 12.7 to 59.1

For part a, we need to check how many standard deviations 12.7 and 59.1 are from the mean 35.9. Calculate the Z scores: \(Z = (X - \mu) / \sigma\). Z for 12.7 = \((12.7 - 35.9) / 11.6\) which is approximately -2. Z for 59.1 = \((59.1 - 35.9) / 11.6\) which is approximately +2. So, we are asked to find the percentage of cities falling within two standard deviations of the mean. From the Empirical rule, we know that this is 95%.
02

Calculation for Range 24.3 to 47.5

Similarly, for part b, calculate Z for 24.3 and 47.5. Z for 24.3 = \((24.3 - 35.9) / 11.6\) which is -1 approximately. Z for 47.5 = \((47.5 - 35.9) / 11.6\) is approximately +1. So, we are asked to find the percentage of cities falling within one standard deviation of the mean. From the Empirical rule, we know that this is 68%.
03

Evaluating High Value

Now, for part c, calculate the Z score for New York that has a pollution index of 58.7. Z for 58.7 is \((58.7 - 35.9) / 11.6\) which is approximately 2. This lies within two standard deviations of the mean, but quite close to the upper limit. Hence, based on the empirical rule, this score can be considered high but not unusually high as it lies within 95% of the data, but if anything above 2 standard deviations is considered unusually high, then we can say it is unusually high.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding the Empirical Rule
When analyzing statistical data, especially in fields related to environmental science such as pollution tracking, the Empirical Rule is a handy tool to quickly assess the spread of data. It applies to bell-shaped, symmetrical distributions, which are commonly known as normal distributions. According to this rule, approximately 68% of all data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two standard deviations, and 99.7% within three standard deviations.

For example, with pollution indices that have a mean of 35.9 and a standard deviation of 11.6, we'd expect about 68% of cities to have pollution indices ranging from 24.3 to 47.5 points (35.9 plus or minus 11.6). This quick approximation provides valuable insights into the data without exhaustive calculations and can help assess the severity of pollution levels in a region.
Calculating Z-scores
The Z-score is a key concept in statistics, which measures the number of standard deviations a single data point, like a city's pollution index, is from the mean of the dataset. A Z-score is calculated using the formula:
\[ Z = \frac{(X - \mu)}{\sigma} \],
where \( X \) is the value of the data point, \( \mu \) is the mean, and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation. A positive Z-score implies that the data point is above the mean, while a negative Z-score means it is below. For instance, the Z-score for New York's pollution index of 58.7 with a mean of 35.9 and a standard deviation of 11.6 is approximately +2, suggesting it is higher than the average by about two standard deviations. Understanding Z-scores can help determine how unusual a particular data point is within a given dataset.
The Role of Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a mathematical term used to describe the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. It plays a crucial role in understanding the spread of a dataset, like a city's pollution index ratings. A smaller standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be closer to the mean of the set, while a larger standard deviation shows that the values are spread out over a wider range.

When dealing with environmental data, the standard deviation helps identify how consistent the pollution levels are across different areas. For population indices with a mean of 35.9 and a standard deviation of 11.6, this value gives us a way to gauge the variability of pollution in the region. A lower standard deviation would imply more uniformity in pollution levels, while a higher one implies a greater disparity, which can inform both public awareness and policy decision-making.

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