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91Ó°ÊÓ

In a group of 20 athletes, 6 have used performance-enhancing drugs that are illegal. Suppose that 2 athletes are randomly selected from this group. Let \(x\) denote the number of athletes in this sample who have used such illegal drugs. Write the probability distribution of \(x\). You may draw a tree diagram and use that to write the probability distribution. (Hint: Note that the selections are made without replacement from a small population. Hence, the probabilities of outcomes do not remain constant for each selection.)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability distribution of \(x\) (number of athletes in the sample who have used illegal drugs) is \(P(x) = \frac{91}{190}, \frac{84}{190}, \frac{15}{190}\) for \(x = 0, 1, 2\) respectively.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate total probabilities

First, we need to calculate the total number of ways to choose 2 athletes out of 20. This can be done using the combination formula \(\binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!}\), where '!' denotes factorial. When \(n=20\) and \(r=2\), the total number of ways is \(\binom{20}{2} = 190\).
02

Calculate probability of \(x=0\)

For \(x=0\) (no athlete having used drugs), consider selecting 2 athletes from those who have not used drugs, which is 14 (20-6). Use the combination formula again \(\binom{14}{2}= 91\). The probability will be the ratio of these combinations to the total combinations. So, the probability \(P(x=0)\) is \(\frac{91}{190}\).
03

Calculate probability of \(x=1\)

For \(x=1\) (one athlete having used drugs), consider selecting 1 athlete from those who have used drugs (6 in total) and 1 from those who have not. The number of combinations for this event is \(\binom{6}{1}\cdot\binom{14}{1}= 84\). Hence, the probability \(P(x=1)\) is \(\frac{84}{190}\).
04

Calculate probability of \(x=2\)

Lastly, for \(x=2\) (both athletes having used drugs), consider selecting 2 athletes from those who have used drugs. The number of combinations for this event is \(\binom{6}{2}= 15\). So, the probability \(P(x=2)\) is \(\frac{15}{190}\).
05

Derive the Probability Distribution

Finally, we can write the probability distribution as \(P(x) = \frac{91}{190}, \frac{84}{190}, \frac{15}{190}\) for \(x = 0, 1, 2\) respectively. This answers the given exercise.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combination Formula
When dealing with problems that involve choosing a specific number of items from a larger set without regard to the order, the combination formula becomes an indispensable tool. The combination formula is written as \( \binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} \). Here, \( n \) represents the total number of items, \( r \) stands for the number of items to be selected, and '!' denotes factorial, which means multiplying a series of descending natural numbers.For example, if you have 20 athletes and need to select 2, you use the combination formula \( \binom{20}{2} \). Calculating this gives the total number of ways these selections can be made, which is 190 unique combinations.Using combinations is crucial when calculating probabilities, as it helps determine how many different groups or events can occur. By understanding the total possible outcomes, you can more accurately assess the probability of specific events occurring.
Tree Diagram
A tree diagram is a visual tool used to map out all possible outcomes of a particular event or series of events. In probability, tree diagrams help in understanding how different possibilities branch out from one another. Each branch of the tree represents a possible outcome, and when you follow it to the end, you can see all combinations of events. For example, if you are selecting 2 athletes from a group where some have used illegal drugs and some haven’t, a tree diagram can help you see all the selection paths. You can depict various scenarios, such as both athletes using drugs, only one athlete using drugs, or neither using drugs. Using a tree diagram in this context can simplify the calculation of probabilities since it visually presents all potential outcomes and combinations. Especially in cases involving dependent events, like selections without replacement, tree diagrams are invaluable. Each choice affects the following probability, making it easier to see how the sample space changes with each selection.
Probability Without Replacement
When you are dealing with a probability problem where selections are made without replacement, the probabilities change as each item is selected. This is because the pool of possible selections decreases, which in turn affects the likelihood of future selections. For instance, in our athlete example, removing one athlete from the pool means fewer options for subsequent selections, which alters the probability. If you're choosing two athletes from a group of 20 where 6 have used drugs, the selection of one of them first decreases the total pool to 19 athletes when you make your second selection. Without replacement scenarios are called dependent events since each selection affects the outcome for the next. Understanding this concept is key to accurately calculating probabilities in these cases. By recalculating probabilities with each new selection, you gain a clearer understanding of each distinct event's likelihood.

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