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Many of you probably played the game "Rock, Paper, Scissors" as a child. Consider the following variation of that game. Instead of two players, suppose three players play this game, and let us call these players A, B, and C. Each player selects one of these three items - Rock, Paper, or Scissors - independent of each other. Player A will win the game if all three players select the same item, for example, rock. Player B will win the game if exactly two of the three players select the same item and the third player selects a different item. Player C will win the game if every player selects a different item. If Player \(\mathrm{B}\) wins the game, he or she will be paid \(\$ 1\). If Player \(C\) wins the game, he or she will be paid \(\$ 3\). Assuming that the expected winnings should be the same for each player to make this a fair game, how much should Player A be paid if he or she wins the game?

Short Answer

Expert verified
If Player A wins the game, he or she should be paid $4 to ensure the game is fair for all players.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Win Conditions for Each Player

Player A wins if all three pick the same item, which can happen in 3 ways (Rock, Rock, Rock; Paper, Paper, Paper; Scissors, Scissors, Scissors). Player B wins if exactly two players pick the same item and the third one is different. There are 3 choices for the repeated item, 2 ways to pick which one is unique, and 2 choices for the unique item. Therefore, there are \(3 × 2 × 2 = 12\) ways. Player C wins if all three items are different, which can occur in \(3!\) or 6 ways.
02

Calculate Probabilities for Each Player’s Win

The total possible outcomes are \(3 × 3 × 3 = 27\). Therefore, the associated probabilities for Players A, B, and C winning are as follows: P(A wins) = \(\frac{3}{27}\) = \(\frac{1}{9}\), P(B wins) = \(\frac{12}{27}\) = \(\frac{4}{9}\), and P(C wins) = \(\frac{6}{27}\) = \(\frac{2}{9}\).
03

Compute Expected Winnings and Determine Player A’s Payout

It’s given that Player B gets $1 if he/she wins and Player C gets $3. We’ve also been told that to make it a fair game, all three players should have the same expectation of winning. If \(E\) is the expected winnings, the payout for Player A, \(x\), should make the expected winnings for each player equal. Therefore, \(\frac{1}{9}(x) = \frac{4}{9}(1) = \frac{2}{9}(3)\). Solving this equation gives us \(x = 4\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Game Theory
Game theory is a fascinating field of mathematics and economics that studies strategic situations. These involve multiple decision-makers, such as players in a game. Each player tries to maximize their own payoff. In the context of "Rock, Paper, Scissors" modified for three players, each player selects an option based on their strategy to win.

The game becomes a strategic battle, as each player's choice affects not only their own outcome but also the outcome of others. The aim is to understand how players make decisions and to predict which strategies will emerge as dominant.

The players do not know in advance what the others will pick. This makes their choice a part of strategic decision-making. This situation is a classic example of a non-cooperative game where the focus is on competition.
Expected Value
Expected value is a key concept in probability and statistics. It quantifies the average outcome of a random event after many repetitions. In the modified Rock, Paper, Scissors game, each player's win condition has a certain probability.

For a game to be considered fair, the expected value of winning for each player should be the same. The expected value is calculated by multiplying the probability of each outcome by the payoff for that outcome. Then, sum these values up.

For example, if Player B has a 4/9 probability of winning $1, then B's expected value is (4/9) × $1 = $4/9. Similarly, Player C’s expected value with a 2/9 probability and a $3 payout is (2/9) × $3 = $6/9. Making the game fair involves setting Player A's payout such that the expected value is equal to $4/9 or $6/9.
Fair Game
A fair game is one where each player has the same expected outcome over time, ensuring no player has a systematic advantage.

In the given problem, fairness requires that the expected winnings of Player A, Player B, and Player C are identical. This is because each player's chance of winning varies and is represented by different payoffs.

To determine a fair payout for Player A, we set their expected value of winning equal to those of players B and C. This involves solving the equation of expected values derived from their respective probabilities and payouts. If Player B receives $1 and Player C receives $3, this needs to balance Player A’s expected value, resulting in Player A needing a payout of $4 for fairness.

Maintaining fairness is crucial for games to be engaging and enjoyable, preventing any player from feeling disadvantaged over time.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is an area of mathematics focused on counting, arrangement, and combination of sets. It plays a significant role in determining the number of possible outcomes and the probability associated with each one in games.

For the modified Rock, Paper, Scissors, combinatorics helps us calculate the different scenarios in which each player wins. By counting possibilities, we see Player A can win if all choose the same object: 3 outcomes (e.g., all Rock, all Paper, all Scissors).

Player B's win condition is more complex, involving exactly two players choosing the same and one choosing differently. This accounts for 12 combinations, calculated using permutations.

Player C wins when all three players pick different items, which occurs in 6 ways, thanks to the factorial counting rule. Understanding these outcomes and their likelihoods requires combinatorial knowledge. This makes it crucial in predicting probabilities in strategic games.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A commuter airline receives an average of \(9.7\) complaints per day from its passengers. Using the Poisson formula, find the probability that on a certain day this airline will receive exactly 6 complaints.

Bender Electronics buys keyboards for its computers from another company. The keyboards are received in shipments of 100 boxes, each box containing 20 keyboards. The quality control department at Bender Electronics first randomly selects one box from each shipment and then randomly selects 5 keyboards from that box. The shipment is accepted if not more than 1 of the 5 keyboards is defective. The quality control inspector at Bender Electronics selected a box from a recently received shipment of keyboards. Unknown to the inspector, this box contains 6 defective keyboards. a. What is the probability that this shipment will be accepted? b. What is the probability that this shipment will not be accepted?

Twenty corporations were asked whether or not they provide retirement benefits to their employees. Fourteen of the corporations said they do provide retirement benefits to their employees, and 6 said they do not. Five corporations are randomly selected from these \(20 .\) Find the probability that a., exactly 2 of them provide retirement benefits to their employees. b. none of them provides retirement benefits to their employees. c. at most one of them provides retirement benefits to employees.

Suppose that a certain casino has the "money wheel" game. The money wheel is divided into 50 sections, and the wheel has an equal probability of stopping on each of the 50 sections when it is spun. Twenty-two of the sections on this wheel show a \(\$ 1\) bill, 14 show a \(\$ 2\) bill, 7 show a \(\$ 5\) bill, 3 show a \(\$ 10\) bill, 2 show a \(\$ 20\) bill, 1 shows a flag, and 1 shows a joker. A gambler may place a bet on any of the seven possible outcomes. If the wheel stops on the outcome that the gambler bet on, he or she wins. The net payoffs for these outcomes for \(\$ 1\) bets are as follows. a), If the gambler bets on the \(\$ 1\) outcome, what is the expected net payoff? b. Calculate the expected net payoffs for each of the other six outcomes. c. Which bet(s) is (are) best in terms of expected net payoff? Which is (are) worst?

One of the toys made by Dillon Corporation is called Speaking Joe, which is sold only by mail. Consumer satisfaction is one of the top priorities of the company's management. The company guarantees a refund or a replacement for any Speaking Joe toy if the chip that is installed inside becomes defective within 1 year from the date of purchase. It is known from past data that \(10 \%\) of these chips become defective within a 1 -year period. The company sold 15 Speaking Joes on a given day. a. Let \(x\) denote the number of Speaking Joes in these 15 that will be returned for a refund or a replacement within a 1 -year period. Using the appropriate probabilities table from Appendix \(\mathrm{C}\), obtain the probability distribution of \(x\) and draw a graph of the probability distribution. Determine the mean and standard deviation of \(x\). b. Using the probability distribution constructed in part a, find the probability that exactly 5 of the 15 Speaking Joes will be returned for a refund or a replacement within a 1 -year period.

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