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Use the following information to answer the next seven exercises: The U.S. Census Bureau conducts a study to determine the time needed to complete the short form. The Bureau surveys 200 people. The sample mean is 8.2 minutes. There is a known standard deviation of 2.2 minutes. The population distribution is assumed to be normal. If the Census wants to increase its level of confidence and keep the error bound the same by taking another survey, what changes should it make?

Short Answer

Expert verified
To maintain the same error bound with increased confidence, increase the sample size.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Confidence and Error Bound

Increasing the confidence level in a statistical analysis means you want to be more certain about your results. However, to maintain the same margin of error (error bound), without changing other factors like the standard deviation or population mean, you need to adjust the sample size.
02

Use the Formula for Sample Size Adjustment

The error bound for a confidence interval is computed using the formula: \( E = Z \times \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( E \) is the error bound, \( Z \) is the z-score corresponding to the confidence level, \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size. If you want a higher \( Z \) value (which indicates higher confidence), \( n \) must increase to keep \( \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \) constant.
03

Solve for Increased Sample Size

To keep \( E \) the same with a higher \( Z \), you need to solve the relationship \( E = Z_{new} \times \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n_{new}}} = Z_{old} \times \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \). This simplifies to \( n_{new} = \left( \frac{Z_{new}}{Z_{old}} \right)^2 \times n \). An increase in \( n \) (new sample size) is necessary to keep the error bound the same.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size Determination
Determining the right sample size is crucial when conducting any statistical study. In our case, we want to increase the confidence level of our survey results without changing the margin of error. This requires us to adjust the sample size appropriately.

The relationship between confidence level and sample size is directly proportional. If we want to be more confident that our survey results are reflective of the entire population, we must sample a larger group. This is because higher confidence levels are associated with a larger Z-score, which is the number that directly impacts how many people we should survey.

To find out the necessary sample size for keeping the margin of error constant while increasing confidence, we can use the formula:
  • \( n_{new} = \left( \frac{Z_{new}}{Z_{old}} \right)^2 \times n \)
This equation helps us understand that as our Z-score climbs with a desire for increased confidence, the sample size \( n \) should also multiply accordingly. By following this rule, we ensure that we can increase our confidence without altering the error bounds.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that helps us understand the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. In the context of the Census Bureau study, the known standard deviation was 2.2 minutes. This number tells us how much the time people take to fill the form varies.

In simple terms, if the standard deviation is small, it means that most of the values are close to the mean, indicating less variability. Conversely, a larger standard deviation means there is a wider spread of data points from the mean.

Standard deviation is used in various calculations including computing the error bound of a confidence interval. It's pivotal in understanding our data's behavior and is crucial when determining sample size, influencing how confident we can be in our results.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is one of the key components of constructing confidence intervals. It essentially determines the range within which we expect our true population parameter to fall. In our context, it’s the range around the sample mean where we estimate the true mean time to fill the form lies.

An error bound, or margin of error, can be computed using the formula:
  • \( E = Z \times \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \)
Where \( E \) is the margin of error, \( Z \) is the z-score correlating with our desired confidence level, \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size.

The margin of error is vital as it communicates the potential error in our survey estimate. A smaller margin of error indicates more precision while a larger margin indicates less precision. Adjusting the sample size is a primary method for altering the margin of error, but as in this exercise, if the confidence level changes, sample size becomes the tool to preserve it without changing our confidence in the results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Use the following information to answer the next five exercises: The standard deviation of the weights of elephants is known to be approximately 15 pounds. We wish to construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean weight of newborn elephant calves. Fifty newborn elephants are weighed. The sample mean is 244 pounds. The sample standard deviation is 11 pounds. In words, define the random variables \(X\) and \(\overline{X}\) .

Use the following information to answer the next 13 exercises: The data in Table 8.10 are the result of a random survey of 39 national flags (with replacement between picks) from various countries. We are interested in finding a confidence interval for the true mean number of colors on a national flag. Let X = the number of colors on a national flag. $$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline X & {\text { Freq }} \\ \hline 1 & {1} \\\ \hline 2 & {7} \\ \hline 3 & {78} \\ \hline 4 & {7} \\ \hline 5 & {6} \\\ \hline\end{array}$$ Calculate the following: a. \(\overline{x}=\) b. \(s_{x}=\) c. \(n=\)

The American Community Survey \((\mathrm{ACS}),\) part of the United States Census, conducts a yearly census similar to the one taken every ten years, but with a smaller percentage of participants. The most recent survey estimates with 90\(\%\) confidence that the mean household income in the U.S. falls between \(\$ 69,720\) and \(\$ 69,922\) . Find the point estimate for mean U.S. household income and the error bound for mean U.S. household income.

Use the following information to answer the next five exercises: The standard deviation of the weights of elephants is known to be approximately 15 pounds. We wish to construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean weight of newborn elephant calves. Fifty newborn elephants are weighed. The sample mean is 244 pounds. The sample standard deviation is 11 pounds. What will happen to the confidence interval obtained, if 500 newborn elephants are weighed instead of 50? Why?

Use the following information to answer the next five exercises. Suppose the marketing company did do a survey. They randomly surveyed 200 households and found that in 120 of them, the woman made the majority of the purchasing decisions. We are interested in the population of households where women make the majority of the purchasing decisions. Identify the following: a. \(x=\) _____ b. \(n=\) ______ c. \(p^{\prime}=\) _____

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