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Use the following information to answer the next six exercises: On average, eight teens in the U.S. die from motor vehicle injuries per day. As a result, states across the country are debating raising the driving age. Is it likely that there will be more than 20 teens killed from motor vehicle injuries on any given day in the U.S.? Justify your answer numerically.

Short Answer

Expert verified
It is unlikely; the probability of more than 20 teens dying in a day is very small, given \( \lambda = 8 \).

Step by step solution

01

Identify Distribution and Parameters

We are given that on average, 8 teens die per day from motor vehicle injuries. This suggests a Poisson distribution, where \( \lambda = 8 \) since it's the average rate of occurrence.
02

Set Up Probability Question

We want to find the probability that more than 20 teens die on any given day, which means \( P(X > 20) \).
03

Use Poisson Cumulative Distribution

For Poisson distribution, we use cumulative probability to find \( P(X \leq 20) \), and then subtract from 1 to find \( P(X > 20) \).
04

Calculate Cumulative Probability

Use a statistical calculator or software to find \( P(X \leq 20) \) for \( \lambda = 8 \). This usually involves summing Poisson probabilities from 0 to 20.
05

Calculate Desired Probability

Subtract the cumulative probability from 1: \( P(X > 20) = 1 - P(X \leq 20) \). With calculation, you would determine this value is very small, indicating it's unlikely.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Cumulative Probability
In probability theory, cumulative probability refers to the likelihood that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value. For a Poisson distribution, this means adding up all the probabilities from 0 to a specific number, which in this case was 20.
By determining how likely it is for a given outcome or set of outcomes to occur, we can make informed hypotheses or decisions about data. For example, when calculating if more than 20 accidents occur, we figure out the likelihood of having 20 or fewer and then subtract it from 1. This subtraction gives the probability of having more than the specified number of events.
This cumulative approach helps us quickly see how likely it is for the occurrence to meet or exceed a particular threshold.
Probability Distribution
A probability distribution is essentially a function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes. In many scenarios, this involves identifying the type of distribution involved, like the Poisson distribution for events that happen independently over a fixed interval of time or space.
The Poisson distribution in particular is defined by a single parameter, \( \lambda \), which indicates the expected number of events per unit time. With \( \lambda = 8 \), the problem specifies that we expect 8 occurrences or accidents per day on average, and we use this to model how daily variations play out statistically. Understanding this distribution is essential for making informed predictions and analyses.
Statistical Calculator
A statistical calculator or relevant software is a useful tool when dealing with complex probability computations like summing up probabilities for a Poisson distribution.
These calculators can handle the math involved in calculating cumulative probabilities and doing so more efficiently and accurately than manual calculations.
  • When \( \lambda \) is specific, like 8 in this case, entering this into a calculator alongside the range of interest (i.e., 0 to 20) provides us with the cumulative probability we'll use.
  • Considering their accessibility and precision, tools like these make approaching statistical problems more feasible even for students or practitioners without deep statistical training.
Using such tools helps focus on the interpretation and application of results rather than getting bogged down by arithmetic details.
Lambda Parameter
In the world of probability, especially in Poisson distributions, \( \lambda \) is known as the rate parameter. It's a critical component because it represents the average number of occurrences in a defined interval.
For our problem, \( \lambda = 8 \) signifies that, on average, 8 teens in the U.S. are injured in car accidents daily.
  • \( \lambda \) helps tailor the Poisson model to reflect real-world data, because once set, it captures how frequently the observed events happen over time.
  • This parameter aids in creating predictions about future occurrences or understanding diversions from the expected norm.
Understanding \( \lambda \) not only clarifies how the Poisson distribution functions, but also enhances how we can employ it in planning, forecasting, or assessing outcomes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Fertile, female cats produce an average of three litters per year. Suppose that one fertile, female cat is randomly chosen. In one year, find the probability she produces: a. In words, define the random variable X. b. List the values that X may take on. c. Give the distribution of \(X, X \sim\) _______ d. Find the probability that she has no litters in one year. e. Find the probability that she has at least two litters in one year. f. Find the probability that she has exactly three litters in one year.

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Find the expected value from the expected value table. $$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|}\hline x & {P(x)} & {x^{*} P(x)} \\ \hline 2 & {0.1} & {2(0.1)=0.2} \\ \hline 4 & {0.3} & {4(0.3)=1.2} \\ \hline 6 & {0.4} & {6(0.4)=2.4} \\ \hline 8 & {0.2} & {8(0.2)=1.6} \\ \hline\end{array}$$

Use the following information to answer the next seven exercises: A ballet instructor is interested in knowing what percent of each year's class will continue on to the next, so that she can plan what classes to offer. Over the years, she has established the following probability distribution. \(\bullet\) Let \(X=\) the number of years a student will study ballet with the teacher. \(\bullet\) Let \(P(x)=\) the probability that a student will study ballet \(x\) years. You are playing a game by drawing a card from a standard deck and replacing it. If the card is a face card, you win \(\$ 30\). If it is not a face card, you pay \(\$ 2\). There are 12 face cards in a deck of 52 cards. What is the expected value of playing the game?

A group of Martial Arts students is planning on participating in an upcoming demonstration. Six are students of Tae Kwon Do; seven are students of Shotokan Karate. Suppose that eight students are randomly picked to be in the first demonstration. We are interested in the number of Shotokan Karate students in that first demonstration. a. In words, define the random variable X. b. List the values that X may take on. C. Give the distribution of \(X . X \sim\) ____ (___,____) d. How many Shotokan Karate students do we expect to be in that first demonstration?

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