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Use the following information to answer the next six exercises: On average, eight teens in the U.S. die from motor vehicle injuries per day. As a result, states across the country are debating raising the driving age. Is it likely that there will be no teens killed from motor vehicle injuries on any given day in the U.S? Justify your answer numerically.

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, it's not likely since the probability is only about 0.000335.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Given Problem

We are told that on average, eight teens die from motor vehicle injuries each day in the U.S. We need to determine the likelihood of having zero deaths on any given day.
02

Define the Distribution

Assume the number of teen deaths from motor vehicle injuries per day follows a Poisson distribution. In a Poisson distribution, the key parameter is 68, which represents the average number of occurrences per interval. Here, 68 because, on average, there are eight deaths per day.
03

Apply the Poisson Probability Formula

The Poisson probability formula is \[ P(X = k) = \frac{{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}}{{k!}} \]where 6 is the average rate of occurrence (8), and \( k \) is the number of occurrences we want to find the probability for (0 in this case).
04

Calculate the Probability for Zero Deaths

Substitute \( \lambda = 8 \) and \( k = 0 \) into the formula: \[ P(X = 0) = \frac{{e^{-8} 68^0}}{{0!}} = e^{-8} \]Since 0! equals 1, we simplify to \[ P(X = 0) = e^{-8} \].
05

Evaluate the Exponential

Calculate \( e^{-8} \) using a calculator. This value is approximately 0.000335.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
When tackling problems related to the likelihood of events, probability calculation is key. This involves determining how likely an event is to happen. In this scenario, we are interested in finding the probability of having zero teen deaths from motor vehicle injuries on any given day in the U.S.

Firstly, it's important to recognize the type of problem and appropriate statistical method to use. For events that occur randomly and independently over a continuous interval, such as time, the Poisson distribution is particularly useful. This distribution helps in calculating the probability of a specific number of events occurring within a fixed period.
  • The average rate of occurrence, lemda, is crucial as it forms the basis of calculations using the Poisson distribution.
  • For this problem, lemda is 8, signifying the average occurrences per day.
  • Substituting values into the Poisson probability formula gives the likelihood of a specific event count, such as zero deaths.
This probability calculation highlights how statistical methods and parameters permit precise evaluation of real-world scenarios, aiding in making data-driven decisions.
Statistical Distributions
Understanding statistical distributions is foundational for statistical analysis and probability calculations. A statistical distribution describes the likelihood of occurrence of different outcomes in an experiment.

The Poisson distribution, one of the key distributions in statistics, is specifically applied for counting the number of times an event happens within a constant time interval. It suits events that are rare and independent, making it apt for calculating averages of rare events like daily teen deaths in the U.S. due to vehicle accidents.
  • Each unique distribution is characterized by its own parameters; for Poisson, it's the average rate of occurrence, lemda.
  • This dictates the frequency and probability of event occurrences.
  • Interpreting results from a known distribution helps in understanding and forecasting real-world scenarios.
By leveraging statistical distributions, analysts derive meaningful insights into event patterns and craft quantitative explanations for observed data.
Exponential Function
Mathematics often employs exponential functions for modeling processes that grow or decay at a constant rate. The exponential function is represented as \(e^{x}\), where \(e\) is a mathematical constant approximately equal to 2.718.

In our scenario, the exponential function arises within the Poisson probability formula as \(e^{-\lambda}\). It reflects decay and is crucial for calculating probabilities when events are unlikely, or decay rapidly to near-zero probabilities.
  • For \(\lambda = 8\), \(e^{-8}\) is the computed decay factor, indicating the probability of observing no events.
  • This reflects how event probabilities decrease as lemda increases, in the context of rare event occurrences.
  • Calculations like \(e^{-8}\) show exponentially declining probabilities, guiding predictions and assessments effectively.
Exponential functions are essential in statistical calculations, providing insights into how likelihoods of occurrence change with different rates of event occurrences, and illustrating the nature of random processes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Use the following information to answer the next four exercises. Recently, a nurse commented that when a patient calls the medical advice line claiming to have the flu, the chance that he or she truly has the flu (and not just a nasty cold) is only about 4%. Of the next 25 patients calling in claiming to have the flu, we are interested in how many actually have the flu. State the distribution of \(X.\)

In one of its Spring catalogs, L.L. Bean® advertised footwear on 29 of its 192 catalog pages. Suppose we randomly survey 20 pages. We are interested in the number of pages that advertise footwear. Each page may be picked more than once. a. In words, define the random variable \(X.\) b. List the values that \(X\) may take on. c. Give the distribution of \(X . X \sim\) ____ (__,___) d. How many pages do you expect to advertise footwear on them? e. Is it probable that all twenty will advertise footwear on them? Why or why not? f. What is the probability that fewer than ten will advertise footwear on them? g. Reminder: A page may be picked more than once. We are interested in the number of pages that we must randomly survey until we find one that has footwear advertised on it. Define the random variable X and give its distribution. h. What is the probability that you only need to survey at most three pages in order to find one that advertises footwear on it? i. How many pages do you expect to need to survey in order to find one that advertises footwear?

Use the following information to answer the next two exercises: The probability that the San Jose Sharks will win any given game is 0.3694 based on a 13-year win history of 382 wins out of 1,034 games played (as of a certain date). An upcoming monthly schedule contains 12 games. Approximately 8% of students at a local high school participate in after- school sports all four years of high school. A group of 60 seniors is randomly chosen. Of interest is the number who participated in after-school sports all four years of high school. a. In words, define the random variable\( X.\) b. List the values that \(X\) may take on. c. Give the distribution of \(X . X \sim\) ___ (___,____) d. How many seniors are expected to have participated in after-school sports all four years of high school? e. Based on numerical values, would you be surprised if none of the seniors participated in after-school sports all four years of high school? Justify your answer numerically. f. Based upon numerical values, is it more likely that four or that five of the seniors participated in after-school sports all four years of high school? Justify your answer numerically.

Use the following information to answer the next two exercises: The probability that the San Jose Sharks will win any given game is 0.3694 based on a 13-year win history of 382 wins out of 1,034 games played (as of a certain date). An upcoming monthly schedule contains 12 games. According to The World Bank, only 9% of the population of Uganda had access to electricity as of 2009. Suppose we randomly sample 150 people in Uganda. Let \(X\) = the number of people who have access to electricity. a. What is the probability distribution for \(X\)? b. Using the formulas, calculate the mean and standard deviation of \(X\). c. Use your calculator to find the probability that 15 people in the sample have access to electricity. d. Find the probability that at most ten people in the sample have access to electricity. e. Find the probability that more than 25 people in the sample have access to electricity.

Suppose that the PDF for the number of years it takes to earn a Bachelor of Science (B.S.) degree is given in Table 4.31. $$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline x & {P(x)} \\ \hline 3 & {0.05} \\ \hline 4 & {0.40} \\ \hline 5 & {0.30} \\ \hline 6 & {0.15} \\ \hline 7 & {0.10} \\\ \hline\end{array}$$ a. In words, define the random variable \(X.\) b. What does it mean that the values zero, one, and two are not included for x in the PDF?

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