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Use the following information to answer the next six exercises: On average, a clothing store gets 120 customers per day. What is the probability of getting 35 customers in the first four hours? Assume the store is open 12 hours each day.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of getting exactly 35 customers in the first four hours is calculated using the Poisson distribution with \( \lambda = 40 \), resulting in a very small value.

Step by step solution

01

Interpret the problem as a Poisson distribution

We are dealing with a Poisson process since we want to find the probability of a given number of events (customers) in a fixed interval of time. The problem provides the average number of customers as 120 per 12-hour day, from which we can determine the average number per hour.
02

Determine the average rate for four hours

If the store gets 120 customers in 12 hours, then the rate per hour is \( \lambda = \frac{120}{12} = 10 \) customers per hour. Therefore, for four hours the rate \( \lambda = 10 \times 4 = 40 \) customers.
03

Apply the Poisson probability formula

The Poisson probability mass function is given by:\[ P(X = k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \cdot \lambda^k}{k!} \]Where \( \lambda = 40 \) is the average rate we found and \( k = 35 \) is the number of customers we want to find the probability for.
04

Substitute values into the Poisson formula

Substitute \( \lambda = 40 \) and \( k = 35 \) into the Poisson formula:\[ P(X = 35) = \frac{e^{-40} \cdot 40^{35}}{35!} \]
05

Calculate the probability

Using a calculator or software, compute \( e^{-40} \), \( 40^{35} \), and \( 35! \), then use these to find \( P(X = 35) \). This calculation approximately yields a very small probability, indicating it is unlikely for exactly 35 customers to arrive in the first four hours.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability Theory is a branch of mathematics focused on analyzing random events and outcomes. In simple terms, it helps us measure the likelihood of different events happening.
One of the essential aspects of Probability Theory is interpreting real-world situations mathematically, like determining the likelihood of specific occurrences.
The Poisson distribution, as in the original exercise, is a powerful tool within Probability Theory.
  • It is used for predicting the probability of a number of events happening within a fixed interval of time.
  • The distribution is particularly useful for modeling events that occur independently and sporadically.
In the context of the clothing store, Probability Theory helps in gauging the probability of having a certain number of customer arrivals in a specified time. By converting the average daily customer count into an hourly rate and applying it to a shorter time interval, students can calculate specific probabilities using this distribution.
Statistical Methods
Statistical Methods involve organizing, summarizing, and analyzing data. These methods are crucial for interpreting data and deriving meaningful conclusions.
When applying Statistical Methods to the exercise regarding the clothing store, several steps are undertaken to arrive at a solution:
  • First, the problem is understood statistically by identifying it as a suitable case for the Poisson distribution.
  • Then, we calculate the average rate of customer arrival per hour to suit the statistical model.
  • Finally, with the necessary data, the Poisson formula is applied to determine specific probabilities.
Using these methods provides a systematic approach to solve the problem, enabling students to understand and compute probabilities effectively. It's a bridge between pure calculations and meaningful real-world applications.
Customer Arrival Rate
Customer Arrival Rate is a concept used to quantify the number of customers visiting a location over a specific period.
This metric can vary from store to store and even within different times of the day.
In the textbook exercise, the average Customer Arrival Rate is crucial for calculating desired probabilities using the Poisson distribution model.
  • Firstly, the problem sets the customer base as 120 customers every 12 hours, averaging 10 customers per hour.
  • Secondly, by extending this rate to the four-hour interval in question, it helps determine the suitable Poisson parameter (\( \lambda \) becomes 40).
Understanding the Customer Arrival Rate allows students to make justified assays on specific probabilities. It's a vital concept in statistical models predicting the likelihood of customer patterns and behaviors, ensuring businesses can prepare and plan operations efficiently.

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