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According to a recent Pew Research poll, 75% of millenials (people born between 1981 and 1995) have a profile on a social networking site. Let \(X =\) the number of millenials you ask until you find a person without a profile on a social networking site. a. Describe the distribution of X. b. Find the (i) mean and (ii) standard deviation of X. c. What is the probability that you must ask ten people to find one person without a social networking site? d. What is the probability that you must ask 20 people to find one person without a social networking site? e. What is the probability that you must ask at most five people?

Short Answer

Expert verified
X is geometrically distributed with mean 4 and standard deviation approximately 3.464. Probabilities: 10 people (0.033), 20 people (0.000084), at most 5 people (0.7627).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Distribution Type

Given that 75% of millennials have a profile, the probability of finding someone **without** a profile is 25% or 0.25. This scenario follows a geometric distribution, where \(X\) represents the number of trials until the first success (a person without a profile).
02

Define Parameters

For a geometric distribution, the parameter \(p\) is the probability of success on each trial. Here, \(p = 0.25\) since a 'success' is finding someone without a profile.
03

Calculate the Mean

The mean of a geometric distribution is given by \( \mu = \frac{1}{p} \). Substituting \(p = 0.25\), we get \( \mu = \frac{1}{0.25} = 4 \).
04

Calculate the Standard Deviation

The standard deviation of a geometric distribution is \( \sigma = \sqrt{\frac{1 - p}{p^2}} \). Substituting \(p = 0.25\), we get \( \sigma = \sqrt{\frac{0.75}{0.25^2}} = \sqrt{12} \approx 3.464 \).
05

Probability for Asking Ten People

The probability of asking exactly ten people before finding one without a profile is \( P(X=10) = (1-p)^{9} \times p \). Substituting \(p = 0.25\), we get \( P(X=10) = 0.75^9 \times 0.25 \approx 0.033 \).
06

Probability for Asking Twenty People

Similarly, the probability of asking exactly twenty people is \( P(X=20) = (1-p)^{19} \times p \). Substituting \(p = 0.25\), we compute \( P(X=20) = 0.75^{19} \times 0.25 \approx 0.000084 \).
07

Probability for At Most Five People

The probability of asking at most five people is the sum of probabilities for \(X = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5\). We compute \( P(X \leq 5) = 1 - (1-p)^5 \). Substituting \(p = 0.25\), \( P(X \leq 5) = 1 - 0.75^5 \approx 0.7627 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is a mathematical concept that helps us to predict how likely events are to occur. In this exercise, we're dealing with a scenario where we want to find out how many people we need to ask before we find someone without a social networking profile. This type of scenario is modeled using a geometric distribution.

A geometric distribution is used when we're interested in finding the number of trials required to achieve the first success—like finding someone without a profile. It is characterized by a constant probability of success on each trial. Here, a "success" is identifying a person who doesn't have a social media profile, with a probability of 25% (0.25). The interesting aspect of probability is how it helps us see beyond individual cases to larger patterns.
Mean and Standard Deviation
The mean and standard deviation are critical statistics for understanding and summarizing the characteristics of a probability distribution. For a geometric distribution, these measures give us deeper insight into our results.

- **Mean**: The mean is the average number of trials expected until the first success occurs. In our case, it’s calculated as the reciprocal of the probability of success, \( \mu = \frac{1}{p} \). With the given probability of 0.25, the mean is \( \frac{1}{0.25} = 4 \). This means that, on average, you will need to ask 4 people until you find one without a profile.

- **Standard Deviation**: The standard deviation measures how much the number of trials is likely to vary from the mean. It's calculated as \( \sigma = \sqrt{\frac{1 - p}{p^2}} \). Substituting our probability, \( \sigma = \sqrt{\frac{0.75}{0.0625}} = \sqrt{12} \approx 3.464 \). This indicates that while the expected number of trials is 4, it can often vary by about 3 to 4 trials. Understanding these concepts helps in predicting and managing expectations in probability scenarios.
Pew Research Poll
Pew Research often conducts polls that give us insights into societal and demographic trends. In this particular exercise, the poll results show that 75% of millennials have a profile on a social networking site. Polls like these are used to capture the current state of social trends in specific groups.

Pew Research Polls are renowned for their methodological rigor, and these results are significant because they highlight the behavior and preferences of millennials. These statistics are important for marketers, sociologists, and businesses that want to understand the digital habits of this demographic group. The polling provides a snapshot that can be valuable for anticipating changing social dynamics.
Millennials
Millennials are a demographic cohort following Generation X, typically including those born from 1981 to 1995. Known for being the first generation to come of age during the internet era, millennials have influenced major shifts in the way we interact, consume information, and entertain ourselves. They are recognized for their tech-savvy nature and as predominant users of digital platforms.

Studies like this one help us contextualize how millennials engage with technology. It’s intriguing to note that a significant majority, 75%, are involved in social networking, indicating a strong inclination towards staying interconnected digitally. Understanding millennials' behavior is crucial for adapting products, services, and communication strategies to align with their preferences, making them a key focus group for market research and innovation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Approximately 8% of students at a local high school participate in after- school sports all four years of high school. A group of 60 seniors is randomly chosen. Of interest is the number that participated in after-school sports all four years of high school. a. In words, define the random variable X. b. List the values that X may take on. c. Give the distribution of \(X, X \sim\) _____(_____,_____) d. How many seniors are expected to have participated in after-school sports all four years of high school? e. Based on numerical values, would you be surprised if none of the seniors participated in after school sports all four years of high school? Justify your answer numerically. f. Based on numerical values, is it more likely that four or that five of the seniors participated in after-school sports all four years of high school? Justify your answer numerically.

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Use the following information to answer the next seven exercises: A ballet instructor is interested in knowing what percent of each year's class will continue on to the next, so that she can plan what classes to offer. Over the years, she has established the following probability distribution. \(\bullet\) Let \(X=\) the number of years a student will study ballet with the teacher. \(\bullet\) Let \(P(x)=\) the probability that a student will study ballet \(x\) years. In words, define the random variable \(X\).

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