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In spite of the potential safety hazards, some people would like to have an Internet connection in their car. A preliminary survey of adult Americans has estimated this proportion to be somewhere around. 30 (USA Today. May 1,2009 ). a. Use the given preliminary estimate to determine the sample size required to estimate the proportion of adult Americans who would like an Internet connection in their car to within \(.02\) with \(95 \%\) confidence. b. The formula for determining sample size given in this section corresponds to a confidence level of \(95 \%\). How would you modify this formula if a \(99 \%\) confidence level was desired? c. Use the given preliminary estimate to determine the sample size required to estimate the proportion of adult Americans who would like an Internet connection in their car to within \(.02\) with \(99 \%\) confidence.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) To estimate the proportion to within \(.02\) with \(95 \%\ confidence, the required sample size is 2168. b) For a \(99 \%\ confidence level, replace the z-value in the sample size formula with 2.58. c) To estimate the proportion to within \(.02\) with \(99 \%\ confidence, the required sample size is 4031.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Sample Size for 95% Confidence Level

Using the sample size formula: \(n = (Z^2 * P * (1-P)) / E^2\), where \(Z\) is the z-value (1.96 for 95% confidence level), \(P\) is the preliminary proportion estimate (0.30), and \(E\) is the margin of error (0.02). Thus, substituting these values into the formula gives \(n = (1.96^2 * 0.30 * 0.70) / 0.02^2 = 2167.44\). However, we can't have a fractional part of a person in a sample, so it rounds up to the nearest whole person to give a sample size of 2168.
02

Modification of Sample Size Formula for 99% Confidence Level

To achieve a 99% confidence level, the z-value is 2.58. So, the formula for the sample size would be modified by replacing the z-value (1.96) with the new z-value (2.58). The modified sample size formula: \(n = (Z^2 * P * (1-P)) / E^2\), where Z is the z-value for 99% confidence level, i.e. 2.58.
03

Calculate Sample Size for 99% Confidence Level

Applying the modified formula with the z-value of 2.58 for 99% confidence level gives: \(n = (2.58^2 * 0.30 * 0.70) / 0.02^2 = 4030.25\). Rounding up to the nearest whole person gives a sample size of 4031. This is the sample size needed for a 99% confidence level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Level
When researchers conduct a survey, they can never include the entire population due to time and resource constraints. Instead, they select a smaller group, called a sample, to represent the population. However, since a sample is just a snapshot, there's a possibility that it might not perfectly reflect the entire population. This is where the concept of the confidence level steps in. The confidence level quantifies the certainty with which we can expect that the range of values we estimate from our sample actually includes the true population parameter.

For instance, a 95% confidence level means that if we were to take 100 different samples and calculate 100 confidence intervals, we would expect about 95 of those intervals to actually contain the population proportion. It's like saying, 'We are 95% confident that the true value lies within this interval.' If you were to increase this to, for instance, 99%, you're simply becoming more cautious, expecting more intervals (99 out of 100) to capture the true population proportion. However, as we become more confident (increasing our confidence level), the size of the sample necessary to maintain the same margin of error also increases.
Margin of Error
Another key concept in determining sample size is the margin of error, which represents the radius of the confidence interval, or in simpler terms, how much wiggle room we're allowing for our estimate of the population proportion. The margin of error is influenced by the variability of the population and the size of the sample. Smaller margins of error suggest more precise estimates but require larger sample sizes.

To put it into context with our example, a margin of error of 0.02 implies that the true proportion of adult Americans who would like an Internet connection in their car is estimated to be within 2 percentage points of what our sample data suggests. If our sample data shows a 30% proportion, we can say we are 95% confident the actual population proportion lies between 28% and 32%. Reducing the margin of error means that we're cutting down this range, making our estimates more precise.
Z-Value
The z-value, also known as the z-score, is a numeric measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It is measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. When it comes to sample size determination, the z-value corresponds to the chosen confidence level. It is a critical value from the standard normal distribution.

For a 95% confidence level, the typical z-value used is 1.96. This value signifies that the area between -1.96 and +1.96 under the standard normal curve accounts for 95% of the total area (i.e., probability). To achieve a 99% confidence level, a larger z-value like 2.58 is used, which widens the range to capture 99% of the total area under the curve. Thus, increasing the z-value widens the confidence interval, which directly impacts the sample size needed to ensure the same margin of error.
Population Proportion
The population proportion, denoted as P, is the estimated percentage of the population that displays a certain characteristic. In our exercise, P represents the proportion of adult Americans who are interested in having an Internet connection in their car. The initial estimate given is 0.30 or 30%, based on the preliminary survey.

This proportion is an essential component in calculating the required sample size because it tells us how varied the responses might be—if everyone or no one wanted an Internet connection, the proportion would be very predictable (0 or 1), and we wouldn't need a large sample to estimate it. However, proportions closer to 0.5 imply more variability and therefore require larger samples to estimate with the same degree of confidence and margin of error. This concept is pivotal in statistical sampling and confidence interval construction.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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