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Based on a representative sample of 511 U.S. teenagers age 12 to 17 , International Communications Research estimated that the proportion of teens who support keeping the legal drinking age at 21 is \(\hat{p}=0.64\) \((64 \%)\). The press release titled "Majority of Teens (Still) Favor the Legal Drinking Age" (www.icrsurvey.com. January 21, 2009) also reported a margin of error of \(0.04(4 \%)\) for this estimate. Show how the reported value for the margin of error was computed.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The reported margin of error was calculated using the formula for a confidence interval around a sample proportion. Substituting the given values into this formula gives a margin of error of about 0.04.

Step by step solution

01

Recall the Formula for Margin of Error

The formula to compute the margin of error is as follows: \n Margin of Error = \(Z*\sqrt{\frac{{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}}{{n}}}\), where Z is the Z-score from the standard normal distribution corresponding to the desired confidence level (for a 95% confidence level, Z would typically be 1.96), \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion, and n is the sample size.
02

Substitute the Given Values into the Formula

We are given that \(\hat{p}=0.64\) and the sample size is 511. We are not given the Z score which corresponds to the level of confidence for this study, so we will have to make an assumption about its value. For simplicity, let's assume it's for a 95% confidence level and thus Z=1.96. Substituting these values into the formula gives: Margin of Error = \(1.96*\sqrt{\frac{{0.64(1-0.64)}}{{511}}}\).
03

Calculate the Margin of Error

After doing the calculations, the margin of error works out to be approximately 0.04, which matches the reported value in the problem.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, often denoted by \( \hat{p} \), represents the ratio of success in a sample. Here, 'success' refers to teens who support keeping the legal drinking age at 21. For the given problem, the sample proportion is 0.64 or 64%. This means that 64% of the surveyed teenagers favor the current legal drinking age.
Calculating the sample proportion is simple. You divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of outcomes in the sample. In this exercise, the survey found a certain number of teens supporting the legal drinking age out of 511 surveyed.
  • Sample Proportion Formula: \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \)
  • Where \(x\) is the number of favorable outcomes, and \(n\) is the total sample size.
Understanding the sample proportion helps in estimating the sentiment or behavior of a larger population by using a smaller, manageable group.
Confidence Level
The confidence level indicates the degree of certainty with which the sample data can be generalized to the broader population. For example, a 95% confidence level suggests that if the same sampling procedure were repeated multiple times, 95% of the derived confidence intervals would contain the true population parameter.
Confidence levels are crucial for determining the reliability of an estimate. They inform us about how sure we are regarding the estimate derived from the sample data.
  • A higher confidence level implies a broader confidence interval.
  • Commonly used confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%.
  • Choosing a confidence level involves trade-offs between certainty and precision of estimates.
In this exercise, it's assumed the confidence level is 95%, which aligns with standard practice in statistical reporting.
Z-score
The Z-score in statistics measures the number of standard deviations an element is from the mean. It is essential in calculating the margin of error and indicates how extreme a given data point is within a dataset.
For confidence intervals, the Z-score corresponds to the selected confidence level. For instance, a 95% confidence level typically uses a Z-score of 1.96. This reflects the portion of the normal distribution that lies within 1.96 standard deviations of the mean.
  • Z-score Formula: \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \)
  • For confidence intervals, the critical Z-scores or values from the Z-table are used.
  • Z-score impacts the calculation of the margin of error directly, affecting the width of the confidence interval.
The use of Z-score is vital for forming the basis of inferential statistics, allowing researchers to make deductions about populations from sample data.
Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a special case of the normal distribution. It has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. This distribution is crucial for many statistical methods, particularly those involving Z-scores.
Because it is normalized, any data point from a normally distributed dataset can be converted into the standard normal distribution using Z-scores. This conversion allows the generalization of results, regardless of the original scale of data.
  • The total area under the standard normal curve equals 1.
  • It allows comparison of results from different datasets.
  • Direct application in calculating probabilities and quantiles necessary for hypothesis testing and confidence intervals.
In the context of this exercise, utilizing the standard normal distribution helps relate the sample proportion to potential real proportions in the overall population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In spite of the potential safety hazards, some people would like to have an Internet connection in their car. A preliminary survey of adult Americans has estimated this proportion to be somewhere around. 30 (USA Today. May 1,2009 ). a. Use the given preliminary estimate to determine the sample size required to estimate the proportion of adult Americans who would like an Internet connection in their car to within \(.02\) with \(95 \%\) confidence. b. The formula for determining sample size given in this section corresponds to a confidence level of \(95 \%\). How would you modify this formula if a \(99 \%\) confidence level was desired? c. Use the given preliminary estimate to determine the sample size required to estimate the proportion of adult Americans who would like an Internet connection in their car to within \(.02\) with \(99 \%\) confidence.

The formula used to compute a confidence interval for the mean of a normal population when \(n\) is small is $$\bar{x} \pm(t \text { critical value }) \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}$$ What is the appropriate \(t\) critical value for each of the following confidence levels and sample sizes? a. \(95 \%\) confidence, \(n=17\) b. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=12\) c. \(99 \%\) confidence, \(n=24\) d. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=25\) e. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=13\) f. \(95 \%\) confidence, \(n=10\)

USA Today (October 14, 2002) reported that \(36 \%\) of adult drivers admit that they often or sometimes talk on a cell phone when driving. This estimate was based on data from a sample of 1004 adult drivers, and a bound on the error of estimation of \(3.1 \%\) was reported. Assuming a \(95 \%\) confidence level, do you agree with the reported bound on the error? Explain.

If a hurricane was headed your way, would you evacuate? The headline of a press release issued January 21, 2009 by the survey research company International CommunicationsResearch(icrsurvey.com) states, "Thirtyone Percent of People on High-Risk Coast Will Refuse Evacuation Order, Survey of Hurricane Preparedness Finds." This headline was based on a survey of 5046 adults who live within 20 miles of the coast in high hurricane risk counties of eight southern states. In selecting the sample, care was taken to ensure that the sample would be representative of the population of coastal residents in these states. Use this information to estimate the proportion of coastal residents who would evacuate using a \(98 \%\) confidence interval. Write a few sentences interpreting the interval and the confidence level associated with the interval.

In an AP-AOL sports poll (Assodated Press. December 18,2005\(), 394\) of 1000 randomly selected U.S. adults indicated that they considered themselves to be baseball fans. Of the 394 baseball fans, 272 stated that they thought the designated hitter rule should either be expanded to both baseball leagues or eliminated. a. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults who consider themselves to be baseball fans. b. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of those who consider themselves to be baseball fans who think the designated hitter rule should be expanded to both leagues or eliminated. c. Explain why the confidence intervals of Parts (a) and (b) are not the same width even though they both have a confidence level of \(95 \%\).

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