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Past experience has indicated that the true response rate is \(40 \%\) when individuals are approached with a request to fill out and return a particular questionnaire in a stamped and addressed envelope. An investigator believes that if the person distributing the questionnaire is stigmatized in some obvious way, potential respondents would feel sorry for the distributor and thus tend to respond at a rate higher than \(40 \%\). To investigate this theory, a distributor is fitted with an eye patch. Of the 200 questionnaires distributed by this individual, 109 were returned. Does this strongly suggest that the re-sponse rate in this situation exceeds the rate in the past? State and test the appropriate hypotheses at significance level .05.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The null hypothesis that the rate of returned questionnaires is less than or equal to 40% would be accepted or rejected based on the comparison of test statistic with the critical value. To conclude whether the response rate has significantly increased, one must follow the step-by-step solution as outlined, from formulating hypotheses to decision making.

Step by step solution

01

Set up the Hypotheses

First, formulate the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) is that the distribution rate has not increased or remained the same. In other words, the rate is less than or equal to 40%. The alternative hypothesis (\(H_1\)) is that the distribution rate is higher than 40%.
02

Compute the Test Statistics

Calculate the test statistic, which is a normalized measure of how far the observed sample statistic is from the hypothesized population parameter under \(H_0\). This is usually represented as `z`. The formula for `z` is \[ z = \frac {(\hat{p}-p_0)}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1-p_0)}{n}}} \] where, \n\n\(\hat{p}\) = observed sample proportion (109/200 = 0.545), \n\n\(p_0\) = hypothesized population proportion under \(H_0\) (0.4), \n\n\(n\) = sample size (200). \n\nSubstitute these values into the formula to get the value of z.
03

Determine the Rejection Region

The rejection region is determined by the significance level and the type of test. Here, it's a one-sided test at the 0.05 significance level. For a one-sided test, the z-score that corresponds to a 0.05 significance level is approximately 1.645. So, the rejection region is \(z > 1.645\).
04

Make a Decision

Compare the calculated test statistic (`z`) with the critical value (1.645). If `z` is greater than the critical value, then reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. If not, do not reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
When conducting hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis, denoted as \(H_0\), represents the statement that there is no effect or no difference, and it serves as the default or starting assumption. In the context of the exercise, the null hypothesis posits that the response rate to the questionnaire is \(40\text{%}\) or less, reflecting no increase due to the distributor wearing an eye patch. The null hypothesis is what we test against and is assumed true unless evidence suggests otherwise.

The assessment of the null hypothesis is crucial since it forms the basis for statistical inference. It's like a scientific claim that we try to challenge with data. If the data provide sufficient evidence to contradict \(H_0\), then we consider rejecting it in favor of an alternative hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \(H_1\) or \(H_a\), represents the statement that there is an effect or a difference that counters the null hypothesis. In this case, the alternative hypothesis claims that the response rate to the questionnaire exceeds \(40\text{%}\) due to the sympathy for the eye patch-clad distributor.

This hypothesis is what researchers aim to support, demonstrating that their theory or belief has statistical merit. In hypothesis testing, we don't 'prove' the alternative hypothesis; we simply accumulate evidence that suggests the null hypothesis may not be true, thereby giving credence to the alternative.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a standardized value that reflects how far away our sample statistic is from the null hypothesis value. It is calculated based on sample data and provides a measure for making a decision about the hypotheses.

In this exercise, the test statistic \(z\) is used to assess the discrepancy between the observed sample proportion and the population proportion stated under \(H_0\). A large magnitude of this statistic means that the sample evidence is not aligning well with the null hypothesis, indicating that the alternative hypothesis may be more appropriate.
Significance Level
The significance level, denoted by \(\alpha\), is a threshold that determines the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (a type I error). Commonly set at \(0.05\) or \(5\text{%}\), the significance level establishes a critical value, or boundary, for the test statistic. If the test statistic exceeds this critical value, we reject the null hypothesis.

For our exercise, we use a \(0.05\) significance level, meaning there's a \(5\text{%}\) chance we're making a type I error if we reject the null hypothesis. It balances the risk of an incorrect rejection with the desire to detect an effect if there is one.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, denoted as \(\hat{p}\), represents the ratio of individuals in the sample with a particular characteristic, in this case, those who returned the questionnaire. It's a point estimate of the population proportion and a key element in calculating the test statistic.

In the given exercise, the sample proportion is calculated by dividing the number of returned questionnaires (109) by the total distributed (200), resulting in \(0.545\). This observed sample proportion is then compared against the hypothesized population proportion \(p_0\) to assess the validity of the null hypothesis through the test statistic.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The international polling organization Ipsos reported data from a survey of 2000 randomly selected Canadians who carry debit cards (Canadian Account Habits Survey, July 24, 2006). Participants in this survey were asked what they considered the minimum purchase amount for which it would be acceptable to use a debit card. Suppose that the sample mean and standard deviation were \(\$ 9.15\) and \(\$ 7.60\), respectively. (These values are consistent with a histogram of the sample data that appears in the report.) Do these data provide convincing evidence that the mean minimum purchase amount for which Canadians consider the use of a debit card to be appropriate is less than \(\$ 10\) ? Carry out a hypothesis test with a significance level of \(.01\).

The paper "Playing Active Video Games Increases Energy Expenditure in Children" (Pediatrics [2009]: 534-539) describes an interesting investigation of the possible cardiovascular benefits of active video games. Mean heart rate for healthy boys age 10 to 13 after walking on a treadmill at \(2.6 \mathrm{~km} /\) hour for 6 minutes is 98 beats per minute (bpm). For each of 14 boys, heart rate was measured after 15 minutes of playing Wii Bowling. The resulting sample mean and standard deviation were \(101 \mathrm{bpm}\) and \(15 \mathrm{bpm}\), respectively. For purposes of this exercise, assume that it is reasonable to regard the sample of boys as representative of boys age 10 to 13 and that the distribution of heart rates after 15 minutes of Wii Bowling is approximately normal. a. Does the sample provide convincing evidence that the mean heart rate after 15 minutes of Wii Bowling is different from the known mean heart rate after 6 minutes walking on the treadmill? Carry out a hypothesis test using \(\alpha=.01\). b. The known resting mean heart rate for boys in this age group is \(66 \mathrm{bpm}\). Is there convincing evidence that the mean heart rate after Wii Bowling for 15 minutes is higher than the known mean resting heart rate for boys of this age? Use \(\alpha=.01\).

A certain pen has been designed so that true average writing lifetime under controlled conditions (involving the use of a writing machine) is at least 10 hours. A random sample of 18 pens is selected, the writing lifetime of each is determined, and a normal probability plot of the resulting data supports the use of a one-sample \(t\) test. The relevant hypotheses are \(H_{0}: \mu=10\) versus \(H_{a}: \mu<10 .\) a. If \(t=-2.3\) and \(\alpha=.05\) is selected, what conclusion is appropriate?

A researcher speculates that because of differences in diet, Japanese children may have a lower mean blood cholesterol level than U.S. children do. Suppose that the mean level for U.S. children is known to be 170 . Let \(\mu\) represent the mean blood cholesterol level for all Japa-nese children. What hypotheses should the researcher test?

A manufacturer of hand-held calculators receives large shipments of printed circuits from a supplier. It is too costly and time-consuming to inspect all incoming circuits, so when each shipment arrives, a sample is selccted for inspcction. Information from the samplc is then used to test \(H_{0}: p=.01\) versus \(H_{a}: p>.01\), where \(p\) is the actual proportion of defective circuits in the shipment. If the null hypothesis is not rejected, the shipment is accepted, and the circuits are used in the production of calculators. If the null hypothesis is rejected, the entire shipment is returned to the supplier because of inferior quality. (A shipment is defined to be of inferior quality if it contains more than \(1 \%\) defective circuits.) a. In this context, define Type I and Type II errors. b. From the calculator manufacturer's point of view, which type of error is considered more serious? ca From the printed circuit supplier's point of view, which type of error is considered more serious?

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