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Your school library has 5 copies of George Polya's How To Solve it book. Copies 1 and 2 are first-edition, and copies 3,4 and 5 are second edition. You are searching for a first-edition book, and you will stop when you find a copy. For example, if you find copy 2 immediately, then the outcome is 2 . Outcome 542 represents the outcome that a first edition was found on the third attempt. a) List the outcomes of your sample space, \(U\). b) List the outcomes of the event \(A\) that two books must be searched. c) List the outcomes of the event \(B\) that at least two books must be searched. d) List the outcomes of the event C that copy 1 is found.

Short Answer

Expert verified
U: {1, 2, 31, 32, 41, 42, 51, 52, 341, 342, 351, 352, 431, 432, 451, 452, 531, 532, 541, 542}; A: {31, 32, 41, 42, 51, 52}; B: {31, 32, 41, 42, 51, 52, 341, 342, 351, 352, 431, 432, 451, 452, 531, 532, 541}; C: {1, 31, 41, 51, 341, 351, 431, 451, 531}

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Sample Space

In this problem, the order in which you find books matters when determining the sample space, which consists of possible outcomes. Specifically, you are looking for sequences of numbers that end with a 1 or 2 (indicating a first-edition book has been found).
02

Identify Outcomes for Event A

Event A concerns the situation where a first-edition book is found on the second try. This means the first book searched is a second-edition book (3, 4, or 5), and the second book is a first-edition book (1 or 2). Therefore, the outcomes for event A are 31 and 32, 41 and 42, 51 and 52.
03

Identify Outcomes for Event B

Event B concerns the situation where a first-edition book is found on the second or later try. This includes all outcomes for Event A and any sequence that finds a first-edition book third or later. Hence outcomes are 31, 32, 41, 42, 51, 52, 341, 342, 351, 352, 431, 432, 451, 452, 531, 532, and 541 (stopping after any first-edition is found, such as at 1 or 2).
04

Identify Outcomes for Event C

Event C specifically states finding copy 1 (first-edition) regardless of the order. Outcomes include where sequence ends with a 1: 1, 31, 31, 41, 51, 341, 351, 431, 451, 531. Any outcome that ends with 1 is valid.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
In probability theory, the sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a given experiment or problem. In the context of our exercise, the problem involves searching through copies of books to find a first-edition book. Thus, our sample space includes all sequences of attempts where one finally finds a first-edition book.

The critical aspect of the sample space here is recognizing that the order in which the books are checked matters. Since outcomes are determined by when a first-edition book is found, each outcome is a sequence that ends with a specific number (1 or 2, as these indicate first editions). For instance, ending with "1" means the search ended when the first-edition book copy 1 was found, and ending with "2" means it was copy 2. By listing all possible permutations through which a first-edition book could be discovered (like 1, 2, 31, 32, etc.), we fully outline our sample space.

Understanding sample space is crucial to organizing any probability analysis in a structured way. It allows one to clearly identify all potential outcomes and helps lay the groundwork for further probability event analysis.
Events in Probability
Events in probability are specific outcomes or groups of outcomes within a sample space. Each event is a collection of possible outcomes that share a common property or characteristic. In this exercise, we have certain events that focus on particular criteria when searching for the first-edition book.

  • Event A: This encompasses sequences where the first-edition book is found on the second trial, implying the first book checked is a second edition while the second is a first (e.g., outcomes like 31, 32, 41, etc.).
  • Event B: This event includes scenarios where a first-edition book is found on either the second or a later attempt. It adds to Event A all possible cases where the book is found after checking more than two books (such as 341, 342, 351, 352, etc.).
  • Event C: This focuses solely on finding copy 1 of the first edition. Any sequence that concludes with "1" signifies this event (e.g., 1, 31, 41, 51).

Each event's outcome provides insights into specific conditions and is an essential component of understanding probability theory. By defining events carefully, one can calculate probabilities efficiently and accurately for different scenarios.
Sequential Search
Sequential search is a straightforward and intuitive way to find an item in a list or a set. It involves checking elements one by one in a sequence until the desired item is found. This approach is analogous to the process described in the exercise, where books are checked sequentially to find a first-edition copy.

When using a sequential search in probability theory, every step of the search can represent an outcome, or a series of outcomes, in a defined sample space. For example, if the search stops at the second book, this directly impacts which event it belongs to—highlighting how sequential searches map to probabilistic analysis.

Sequential search is generally easy to implement and understand, making it especially useful in scenarios with smaller datasets or where the search process is part of more complex probabilistic models. However, its simplicity comes with a time cost as it may require examining each element until a match is located, making it inefficient with larger datasets. Thus, while optimal in smaller datasets or simple problems like checking a few books, in other situations, more sophisticated algorithms might be preferred for efficiency.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A hospital codes patients according to whether they have health insurance or no insurance, and according to their condition. The condition of the patient is rated as good (g), fair ( \(f\) ), serious (s), or critical (c). The clerk at the front desk marks 0 , for non-insured patients, and 1 for insured, and uses one of the letters for the condition. \(\$ 0,(1, c)\) means an insured patient with critical condition. a) List the sample space of this experiment. b) What is the event'not insured, in serious or critical condition? c) What is the event patient in good or fair condition? d) What is the event patient has insurance?

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Driving tests in a certain city are not easy to pass the first time you take them. After going through training, the percentage of new drivers passing the test the first time is \(60 \% .\) If a driver fails the first test, there is a chance of passing it on a second try, two weeks later. \(75 \%\) of the second- chance drivers pass the test. Otherwise, the driver has to retrain and take the test after 6 months. Find the probability that a randomly chosen new driver will pass the test without having to wait 6 months.

In each of the following situations, state whether or not the given assignment of probabilities to individual outcomes is legitimate. Give reasons for your answer. a) A die is loaded such that the probability of each face is according to the following assignment ( \(x\) is the number of spots on the upper face and \(P(x)\) is its probability.) $$\begin{array}{c|cccccc} \hline x & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 \\ \hline P(x) & 0 & \frac{1}{6} & \frac{1}{3} & \frac{1}{3} & \frac{1}{6} & 0 \\\ \hline \end{array}$$ b) A student at your school categorized in terms of gender and whether they are diploma candidates or not. P(female, diploma candidate) \(=0.57,\) P(female, not a diploma candidate) \(=0.23\) \(\mathrm{P}\) (male, diploma candidate) \(=0.43, \mathrm{P}\) (male, not a diploma candidate) \(=0.18\) c) Draw a card from a deck of 52 cards ( \(x\) is the suit of the card and \(P(x)\) is its probability). $$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline x & \text { Hearts } & \text { Spades } & \text { Diamonds } & \text { Clubs } \\ \hline P(x) & \frac{12}{52} & \frac{15}{52} & \frac{12}{52} & \frac{13}{52} \\\ \hline \end{array}$$

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