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A market chain in Germany accepts only Mastercard and Visa. It estimates that \(21 \%\) of its customers use Mastercard, \(57 \%\) use Visa and \(13 \%\) use both cards. a) What is the probability that a customer will have an acceptable credit card? b) What proportion of their customers has neither card? c) What proportion of their customers has exactly one acceptable card?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.65 b) 0.35 c) 0.52.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the given information

We are given that 21% of customers use Mastercard, 57% use Visa, and 13% use both. We need to find the probabilities for three different conditions regarding card usage.
02

Calculate probability of having an acceptable card

A customer has an acceptable card if they have Mastercard, Visa, or both. This can be calculated as the union of two probabilities: using_probability = Mastercard_probability + Visa_probability - Both_probability. Thus, \( P(M \cup V) = 0.21 + 0.57 - 0.13 \),resulting in \( P(M \cup V) = 0.65 \).
03

Calculate proportion with neither card

Since 65% of customers have at least one card, the proportion with neither card is the complement of having a card: \( P'(M \cup V) = 1 - 0.65 \), resulting in \( P'(M \cup V) = 0.35 \).
04

Calculate proportion with exactly one card

The proportion of customers with exactly one card can be found by subtracting those with both from each card individually. \( P(M \text{ only}) = 0.21 - 0.13 = 0.08 \) and \( P(V \text{ only}) = 0.57 - 0.13 = 0.44 \).Adding these results gives \( P(M \text{ only}) + P(V \text{ only}) = 0.08 + 0.44 = 0.52 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Union of Events
The concept of the "Union of Events" in probability refers to the scenario where either or both of two or more events occur. Mathematically, for two events, A and B, the union is represented as \( P(A \cup B) \). This signifies the probability that either event A happens, event B happens, or both happen.
In the context of the exercise, customers using any acceptable credit card would be an example of a union event. Here, event A is customers using Mastercard, while event B is customers using Visa. Since both cards are acceptable, the union of these events is calculated by adding their individual probabilities and then subtracting the probability of customers using both cards. This avoids counting the dual cardholders twice. Thus, \( P(M \cup V) = 0.21 + 0.57 - 0.13 = 0.65 \).
This means there is a 65% probability of a customer having at least one acceptable credit card.
Complement Rule
The "Complement Rule" in probability is a straightforward but powerful principle. It states that the probability of an event not occurring is just 1 minus the probability of the event occurring, represented as \( P'(A) = 1 - P(A) \).
This concept was used in the exercise to determine the likelihood that a customer has neither a Mastercard nor a Visa card. Once the probability of a customer having at least one card was calculated as 65%, the complement rule was applied: subtract this from 1 to find the probability of the opposite event, having neither card.
By applying \( P'(M \cup V) = 1 - 0.65 \), we find that there is a 35% probability that a customer does not possess an acceptable credit card. The complement rule thus provides a quick and reliable way to find the probability of events that are the opposite of those directly given or calculated.
Set Theory
Set Theory is a branch of mathematical logic that studies collections of objects or 'sets'. It has crucial applications in probability, particularly when dealing with multiple events.
In probability, sets can represent groups of outcomes. For example, in the exercise, events like customers who use Mastercard or Visa are sets of individuals. Set operations, such as unions and intersections, allow us to calculate probabilities involving these groups.
The intersection of two sets involves elements common to both. In the context of credit card holders, the set of customers who use both Mastercard and Visa (13%) represents such an intersection. Set theory rules also help in establishing relationships like union, intersection, and difference between events, making calculations easier.
This mathematical framework is essential for understanding and solving many probability problems, offering a clear, logical approach to handling complex event relationships.
Venn Diagrams
Venn Diagrams are simple visual tools used in set theory and probability to represent relationships between sets. They consist of circles or ellipses that overlap, illustrating the intersections and unions of different sets.
In the exercise, a Venn Diagram could effectively illustrate how the percentages of Mastercard, Visa, and joint cardholders interrelate. Each circle would represent a set: one for Mastercard users, another for Visa users. The overlapping section would show customers who hold both cards, representing the intersection (13%). The non-overlapping sections depict customers using only one type, helping clarify the union of the events.
Venn Diagrams help in visualizing complex data relationships simply and understandably. They are invaluable for solving problems involving multiple events, allowing us to intuitively interpret and validate our calculated probabilities, such as those for the union and complement of events.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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