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Harrison Clothiers' stock currently sells for \(\$ 20\) a share. The stock just paid a dividend of \(\$ 1.00\) a share (i.e., \(D_{0}=\$ 1.00\) ). The dividend is expected to grow at a constant rate of 10 percent a year. What stock price is expected 1 year from now? What is the required rate of return on the company's stock?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected stock price in one year is $20, and the required rate of return is 15.5%.

Step by step solution

01

Calculating Expected Dividend Next Year

The dividend next year, denoted as \(D_{1}\), can be calculated using the growth rate. Since the dividend is expected to grow at a rate of 10%, we have:\[D_{1} = D_{0} \times (1 + g) = 1.00 \times (1 + 0.10) = 1.10.\]This means the dividend expected next year is \(\$1.10\).
02

Using Gordon Growth Model to Determine Stock Price

Next, we need to calculate the stock price a year from now, denoted as \(P_{1}\). We use the Gordon Growth Model (or Dividend Discount Model), which states\[P_{1} = \frac{D_{1}}{r - g}\]We know \(D_{1} = 1.10\), \(P_{0} = 20\), and \(g = 0.10\). Using this information allows us to rearrange the equation to solve for the required rate of return \(r\) and later find \(P_{1}\).
03

Finding the Required Rate of Return

Given the current stock price \(P_{0} = 20\), we rearrange the Gordon Growth Model to solve for \(r\):\[20 = \frac{1.10}{r - 0.10}\]Multiply both sides by \(r - 0.10\):\[20(r - 0.10) = 1.10\]Solving for \(r\):\[20r - 2 = 1.10 \20r = 3.10 \r = \frac{3.10}{20} \r = 0.155\]So, the required rate of return is 15.5%.
04

Calculating the Expected Stock Price 1 Year From Now

To find \(P_{1}\), the expected stock price 1 year from now, substitute \(r = 0.155\) and other known values into the model:\[P_{1} = \frac{D_{1}}{r - g} = \frac{1.10}{0.155 - 0.10} = \frac{1.10}{0.055}\]Calculating this gives:\[P_{1} = 20\]Thus, the expected stock price 1 year from now is \(\$20\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Gordon Growth Model
The Gordon Growth Model, often synonymous with the Dividend Discount Model, is a straightforward method used to determine the intrinsic value of a stock that pays dividends. It assumes that dividends will increase at a constant growth rate endlessly, which makes it particularly useful for companies with stable dividend growth patterns. The formula for the Gordon Growth Model is:
  • \[ P_0 = \frac{D_1}{r - g} \]
where:
  • \(P_0\) = Current stock price
  • \(D_1\) = Dividend for the next year
  • \(r\) = Required rate of return
  • \(g\) = Growth rate of the dividend
This model is particularly useful for valuing mature companies with predictable dividend growth. It's important to note that for the model to work effectively, the required rate of return must be greater than the growth rate (\(r > g\)). Otherwise, the formula would not be applicable.
Required Rate of Return
The required rate of return is the minimum percentage return an investor expects to receive on an investment. This rate compensates for the risk undertaken and is critical in valuing stocks using the Gordon Growth Model. To derive this rate for a stock, you can rearrange the Gordon Growth Model formula as shown below:
  • \[ r = \frac{D_1}{P_0} + g \]
In the practical example given, the solution involved back-calculating the required rate of return by inputting known values into the Gordon Growth Model. By knowing the current stock price \(P_0\), the expected dividend \(D_1\), and the dividend growth rate \(g\), you rearrange to find:
  • \( r = 0.155 \text{ or } 15.5\% \)
Understanding this rate helps investors decide if the stock return aligns with their investment objectives.
Stock Price Calculation
Stock price calculation, via the Gordon Growth Model, involves estimating the future price of a stock based on expected dividends and growth rates. The process hinges on the assumption that dividends will grow at a consistent rate. To calculate the expected stock price one year from now, the formula used is:
  • \[ P_1 = \frac{D_1}{r - g} \]
Here, you use the dividend for the next year \(D_1\), and subtract the growth rate \(g\) from the required rate of return \(r\). The example provided shows that:
  • Given \(D_1 = 1.10\), \(r = 0.155\), and \(g = 0.10\), the stock price calculated is \(P_1 = 20\).
This calculation illustrates that, despite changes in dividends, the price expectations might stabilize when growth and interest rates remain constant. By evaluating expected prices, investors can make informed decisions about holding or selling stocks.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Investors require a 15 percent rate of return on Levine Company's stock \(\left(\mathrm{k}_{\mathrm{s}}=15 \%\right)\) a. What will be Levine's stock value if the previous dividend was \(D_{0}=\$ 2\) and if investors expect dividends to grow at a constant compound annual rate of \((1)-5\) percent, (2) 0 percent, (3) 5 percent, and (4) 10 percent? b. Using data from part a, what is the Gordon (constant growth) model value for Levine's stock if the required rate of return is 15 percent and the expected growth rate is (1) 15 percent or (2) 20 percent? Are these reasonable results? Explain. c. Is it reasonable to expect that a constant growth stock would have \(g>k_{s}\) ?

Today is December \(31,2001 .\) The following information applies to Vermeil Airlines: \(\bullet\) After-tax, operating income \([\mathrm{EBIT}(1-\mathrm{T})]\) for 2002 is expected to be \(\$ 500\) million. \(\bullet\) The company's depreciation expense for 2002 is expected to be \(\$ 100\) million. \(\bullet\) The company's capital expenditures for 2002 are expected to be \(\$ 200\) million. \(\bullet\) No change is expected in the company's net operating working capital. \(\bullet\) The company's free cash flow is expected to grow at a constant rate of 6 percent per year. \(\bullet\) The company's cost of equity is 14 percent. \(\bullet\) The company's WACC is 10 percent. \(\bullet\) The market value of the company's debt is \(\$ 3\) billion. \(\bullet\) The company has 200 million shares of stock outstanding. Using the free cash flow approach, what should the company's stock price be today?

A company currently pays a dividend of \(\$ 2\) per share, \(D_{0}=\$ 2 .\) It is estimated that the company's dividend will grow at a rate of 20 percent per year for the next 2 years, then the dividend will grow at a constant rate of 7 percent thereafter. The company's stock has a beta equal to \(1.2,\) the risk- free rate is 7.5 percent, and the market risk premium is 4 percent. What would you estimate is the stock's current price?

The risk-free rate of return, \(\mathrm{k}_{\mathrm{RF}},\) is 11 percent; the required rate of return on the market, \(k_{M},\) is 14 percent; and Upton Company's stock has a beta coefficient of 1.5 a. If the dividend expected during the coming year, \(D_{1},\) is \(\$ 2.25,\) and if \(g=a\) constant \(5 \%,\) at what price should Upton's stock sell? b. Now, suppose the Federal Reserve Board increases the money supply, causing the risk-free rate to drop to 9 percent and \(\mathrm{k}_{\mathrm{M}}\) to fall to 12 percent. What would this do to the price of the stock? c. In addition to the change in Part b, suppose investors' risk aversion declines; this fact, combined with the decline in \(\mathrm{k}_{\mathrm{RF}},\) causes \(\mathrm{k}_{\mathrm{M}}\) to fall to 11 percent. At what price would Upton's stock sell? d. Now, suppose Upton has a change in management. The new group institutes policies that increase the expected constant growth rate to 6 percent. Also, the new management stabilizes sales and profits, and thus causes the beta coefficient to decline from 1.5 to \(1.3 .\) Assume that \(\mathrm{k}_{\mathrm{RF}}\) and \(\mathrm{k}_{\mathrm{M}}\) are equal to the values in part c. After all these changes, what is Upton's new equilibrium price? (Note: \(D_{1}\) is now \(\$ 2,27,2\)

It is now January \(1,2002 .\) Wayne-Martin Electric Inc. (WME) has just developed a solar panel capable of generating 200 percent more electricity than any solar panel currently on the market. As a result, WME is expected to experience a 15 percent annual growth rate for the next 5 years. By the end of 5 years, other firms will have developed comparable technology, and WME's growth rate will slow to 5 percent per year indefinitely. Stockholders require a return of 12 percent on WME's stock. The most recent annual dividend (D) , which was paid yesterday, was \(\$ 1.75\) per share. a. Calculate WME's expected dividends for \(2002,2003,2004,2005,\) and 2006 b. Calculate the value of the stock today, \(\hat{\mathrm{P}}_{0}\). Proceed by finding the present value of the dividends expected at the end of \(2002,2003,2004,2005,\) and 2006 plus the present value of the stock price that should exist at the end of \(2006 .\) The year-end 2006 stock price can be found by using the constant growth equation. Notice that to find the December \(31,2006,\) price, you use the dividend expected in \(2007,\) which is 5 percent greater than the 2006 dividend. c. Calculate the expected dividend yield, \(D_{1} / P_{0}\), the capital gains yield expected in 2002 , and the expected total return (dividend yield plus capital gains yield) for 2002 . (Assume that \(\mathrm{P}_{0}=\mathrm{P}_{0},\) and recognize that the capital gains yield is equal to the total return minus the dividend yield.) Also calculate these same three yields for 2007 . d. How might an investor's tax situation affect his or her decision to purchase stocks of companies in the early stages of their lives, when they are growing rapidly, versus stocks of older, more mature firms? When does WME's stock become "mature" in this example? e. Suppose your boss tells you she believes that WME's annual growth rate will be only 12 percent during the next 5 years and that the firm's normal growth rate will be only 4 percent. Without doing any calculations, what general effect would these growthrate changes have on the price of WME's stock? f. Suppose your boss also tells you that she regards WME as being quite risky and that she believes the required rate of return should be 14 percent, not 12 percent. Again, without doing any calculations, how would the higher required rate of return affect the price of the stock, its capital gains yield, and its dividend yield? Again, assume that the firm's normal growth rate will be 4 percent.

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