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Because serum cholesterol is related to age and sex, some investigators prefer to express it in terms of \(z\) -scores. If \(X=\) raw serum cholesterol, then $$Z=\frac{X-\mu}{\sigma}$$, where \(\mu\) is the mean and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation of serum cholesterol for a given age-gender group. Suppose \(Z\) is regarded as a standard normal random variable. What is \(\operatorname{Pr}(Z>0.5) ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > 0.5) \) is approximately 0.3085.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Z-score

The Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relation to the mean of a group of values. It is measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. The formula \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \) represents the transformation of raw serum cholesterol \( X \) into a Z-score, where \( \mu \) is the mean and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation.
02

Determine the Distribution

We know from the problem statement that \( Z \) is a standard normal random variable. This means it follows a normal distribution with a mean \( \mu = 0 \) and a standard deviation \( \sigma = 1 \). Standard normal distribution tables approximate probabilities for various Z-score values.
03

Convert Probability Statement

The problem asks for \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > 0.5) \). This represents the probability that the standard normal variable \( Z \) is greater than 0.5.
04

Use Z-table to Find Probability

Standard normal distribution tables provide the probability \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z \leq z) \) for a given \( z \). To find \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > 0.5) \), we use the table to find \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z \leq 0.5) \) and then subtract from 1 because \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > z) = 1 - \operatorname{Pr}(Z \leq z) \).
05

Calculate \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > 0.5) \)

According to standard normal distribution tables, \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z \leq 0.5) \approx 0.6915 \). Therefore, \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > 0.5) = 1 - 0.6915 = 0.3085 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a special type of normal distribution that has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Normal distributions are symmetric, bell-shaped curves that are very useful in statistics because they describe how data is dispersed around a mean. In the context of our problem, we are looking at a standard normal variable, denoted as \( Z \). The beauty of the standard normal distribution is that it simplifies calculations. Whenever we convert a raw score to a Z-score with the formula \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \), where \( \mu \) is the mean and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation, the resulting Z-score can be placed onto the standard normal distribution. These transformations allow statisticians to use a single, universal table of values to determine probabilities for any normal distribution problem.
The Art of Probability Calculation
Probability calculations are central to understanding data and making predictions. When we're asked to find \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > 0.5) \), we're essentially determining how much of the normal distribution curve lies to the right of the Z-score 0.5. To perform this calculation, we use the standard normal distribution table, commonly known as the Z-table. This table lists the probabilities of a Z-score being less than or equal to a particular value.
By using the Z-table, we find \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z \leq 0.5) \). This is the area under the curve to the left of 0.5, which in this case is approximately 0.6915.
  • Finally, because we're interested in \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > 0.5) \), we need the area to the right of 0.5.
  • We calculate it by subtracting \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z \leq 0.5) \) from 1.
  • Thus, \( \operatorname{Pr}(Z > 0.5) = 1 - 0.6915 = 0.3085 \).
Diving Into Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a crucial concept in statistics that measures the spread or dispersion of a set of values. If the data points are close to the mean, the standard deviation will be small, indicating less variability. Conversely, if data points are spread out over a wider range, the standard deviation will be large.
In our serum cholesterol example, \( \sigma \) (standard deviation) tells us how much the cholesterol levels vary within a specific group. This variability is crucial when converting raw scores \( X \) into Z-scores. You see, by dividing the deviation of each data point from the mean \( (X - \mu) \) by \( \sigma \), we standardize the score.
  • This makes it possible to relate any raw score to the mean in terms of standard deviations.
  • This relative measure is what constitutes a Z-score.
The smaller the standard deviation, the more closely packed the data are around the mean, and the larger the standard deviation, the more spread out the data are. This makes standard deviation an essential statistic for assessing data variability.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A study was conducted assessing the effect of observer training on measurement of blood pressure based on NHANES data from \(1999-2000\) (Ostchega, et al., [1] ). A goal was that the difference in recorded blood pressure between the observer and trainer be \(\leq 2 \mathrm{mm}\) Hg in absolute value. It was reported that the mean difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) between observers and trainers (i.e., mean observer SBP minus trainer SBP) = mean (\Delta) was \(0.189 \mathrm{mm} \mathrm{Hg}\) with \(\mathrm{sd}=2.428 \mathrm{mm} \mathrm{Hg}\). If we assume that the distribution of \(\Delta\) is normally distributed, then what \% of (observer, trainer) pairs have a mean difference of \(\geq 2 \mathrm{mm} \mathrm{Hg}\) in absolute value (i.e., either \(\geq 2 \mathrm{mm} \mathrm{Hg}\) or \(\leq-2 \mathrm{mm} \mathrm{Hg}\) )?

In pharmacologic research a variety of clinical chemistry measurements are routinely monitored closely for evidence of side effects of the medication under study. Suppose typical blood-glucose levels are normally distributed, with mean \(=90 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{dL}\) and standard deviation \(=38 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{dL}\). If the normal range is \(65-120\) mg/dL, then what percentage of values will fall in the normal range?

The Diabetes Prevention Trial (DPT) involved a weight loss trial in which half the subjects received an active intervention and the other half a control intervention. For subjects in the active intervention group, the average reduction in body mass index (BMI, i.e., weight in kg/height\(^2\) in \(\mathrm{m}^{2}\) ) over 24 months was \(1.9 \mathrm{kg} / \mathrm{m}^{2}\). The standard deviation of change in BMI was \(6.7 \mathrm{kg} / \mathrm{m}^{2}\). If the distribution of BMI change is approximately normal, then what is the probability that a subject in the active group would lose at least 1 BMI unit over 24 months?

It is also known that over a large number of 30 - to 49 -year-old Caucasian women, their true mean SBP is normally distributed with mean \(=120 \mathrm{mm}\) Hg and standard deviation \(=14\) mm Hg. Also, over a large number of African American 30- to 49-year-old women, their true mean SBP is normal with mean \(=130 \mathrm{mm} \mathrm{Hg}\) and standard deviation \(=20 \mathrm{mm} \mathrm{Hg}\). Suppose we select a random \(30-\) to 49 -year-old Caucasian woman and a random 30 - to 49 -year-old African American woman. What is the probability that the African American woman has a higher true SBP?

In pharmacologic research a variety of clinical chemistry measurements are routinely monitored closely for evidence of side effects of the medication under study. Suppose typical blood-glucose levels are normally distributed, with mean \(=90 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{dL}\) and standard deviation \(=38 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{dL}\). Suppose that in a pharmacologic study involving 6000 patients, 75 patients have blood-glucose levels at least 1.5 times the upper limit of normal on one occasion. What is the probability that this result could be due to chance?

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