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An honest coin is tossed 10 times in a row. The result of each toss ( \(H\) or \(T\) ) is observed. Find the probability of the event \(E="\) a \(T\) comes up at least once." (Hint: Find the probability of the complementary event.)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least one tails comes up when a coin is tossed 10 times is approximately \(0.999\).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

A fair coin is tossed 10 times. The possible outcomes of each toss are heads (H) or tails (T). The probability of getting either is exactly a half since the coin is fair. The event \(E\) is that a \(T\) comes up at least once.
02

Calculate the Complementary Probability

To calculate the probability of getting at least one tails, it is easier to first calculate the probability of the complementary event, i.e., getting no tails at all (which means getting only heads). The probability of getting a head in a single toss is \(0.5\). Since we have 10 independent tosses, the probability of getting heads in all tosses is \(0.5^{10} = 0.0009765625\).
03

Calculate the Desired Probability

Since the event \(E\) and its complement constitute all possible outcomes, their probabilities sum to 1. Thus, the probability of the event that at least one tails comes up is \(1 - 0.0009765625 = 0.9990234375\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Complementary Probability
In probability theory, understanding complementary events can simplify solving complex problems. A complementary event includes all outcomes that aren't part of the original event. For instance, when calculating the probability of getting at least one tail in a series of coin tosses, it's often easier to calculate what happens if we get no tails at all.

In the original exercise, the event of interest is getting at least one tail in 10 coin tosses. The complementary event is getting no tails (only heads) in those tosses. By finding the probability of this complementary event, we learn that its probability is quite low, specifically \(0.0009765625\). Thus, to find the probability of getting at least one tail, we subtract the probability of the complementary event from one:
  • Complements cover all possible outcomes together.
  • Always add up to 1 when combined with their opposing event.
This method often streamlines calculations and helps to clearly visualize the relationship between distinct outcomes.
Independent Events
Independent events occur when the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. In simpler terms, each event happens independently.

A classic example of independent events is the tossing of a fair coin multiple times. In the exercise, the 10 tosses represent independent events because each toss does not influence the next. The probability of getting a head (H) or tail (T) remains constant at \(0.5\) regardless of prior results.

For independent events, if you want to find the combined probability of multiple events happening in sequence, you simply multiply the probabilities of each independent event:
  • Example: The probability of getting all heads (H) in 10 independent tosses: \((0.5)^{10}\).
  • This multiplication shows how the probability decreases with each additional independent event.
Recognizing when events are independent helps in calculating probabilities, especially in sequential formats like repeated experiments.
Fair Coin Toss
A fair coin is one that does not favor heads or tails—it is completely unbiased. In probability terms, this means that each side of the coin has an equal likelihood, namely 50% or \(0.5\).

When using a fair coin in experiments, like the ones in the exercise, each toss is seen as a simple probability model with two possible outcomes. The fairness ensures that over multiple tosses, the number of heads and tails should statistically balance out.

Understanding how fair coin tosses work helps establish a foundation for more complex probability theories:
  • Simple probability: Each toss gives heads or tails with a probability of \(0.5\).
  • Applied to multiple tosses: Fundamental conditions stay constant, ensuring each outcome remains unbiased.
Fair coins are a starting point for many probability problems, illustrating basic principles in a clear manner.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

On an American roulette wheel, there are 38 numbers: \(00,0,1,2, \ldots, 36 .\) If you bet \(\$ N\) on any one number-say. for example, on 10 - you win \(\$ 36 N\) if 10 comes up (i.e., you get \(\$ 37 N\) back - your original bet plus your \(\$ 36 N\) profit \() ;\) if any other number comes up, you lose your \(\$ N\) bet. Find the expected payoff of a \(\$ 1\) bet on 10 (or any other number).

There are 347 NCAA Division I college basketball teams. (a) How many different top-25 rankings are possible? [Assume that every team has a chance to be a top-25 team. (b) How many ways are there to choose 64 teams (unseeded) to make it to the NCAA tournament? [Assume every combination of 64 teams is possible.]

Consider the sample space \(S=\left\\{o_{1}, o_{2}, o_{3}, o_{4}\right\\} .\) Suppose that \(\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{1}\right)+\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{2}\right)=\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{3}\right)+\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{4}\right)\) and that \(\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{1}\right)=0.15\) (a) Find the probability assignment for the probability space when \(o_{2}\) and \(o_{3}\) have the same probability. (b) Find the probability assignment for the probability space when \(\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{3}\right)=0.22\)

Consider the sample space \(S=\left\\{o_{1}, o_{2}, o_{3}, o_{4}, o_{5}\right\\} .\) Suppose that \(\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{1}\right)=0.22\) and \(\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{2}\right)=0.24\) (a) Find the probability assignment for the probability space when \(o_{3}, o_{4},\) and \(o_{5}\) all have the same probability. (b) Find the probability assignment for the probability space when \(\operatorname{Pr}\left(o_{5}\right)=0.1\) and \(o_{3}\) has the same probability as \(o_{4}\) and \(o_{5}\) combined.

The sample spaces are too big to write down in full. In these exercises, you should describe the sample space either by describing a generic outcome or by listing some outcomes and then using the ... notation. In the latter case, you should write down enough outcomes to make the description reasonably clear. A die is rolled four times in a row. The observation is the number that comes up on each roll. Describe the sample space.

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