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Chapter 14: Problem 72

Consider the following hypothetical survey designed to find out what percentage of people cheat on their income taxes. Fifteen hundred taxpayers are randomly selected from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) rolls. These individuals are then interviewed in person by representatives of the IRS and read the following statement. (a) Explain why the above figure might be unreliable. (b) Can you think of ways in which a survey of this type might be designed so that more reliable information could be obtained? In particular, discuss who should be sponsoring the survey and how the interviews should be carried out.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The existing survey conducted by the IRS might not yield reliable results due to respondent biases. For instance, fear of penalties or legal trouble might deter respondents from being truthful. To enhance reliability, the survey could be carried out by an independent third party and be conducted in a way that ensures respondent anonymity and comfort. Different survey methods such as mail, online, or telephone surveys can also be considered to increase comfort and reduce biases.

Step by step solution

01

Identifying Flaws in the Original Survey

The primary reason why the results of this survey might be unreliable is due to the interviewers and the setting. If taxpayers are being interviewed by IRS representatives, they are less likely to admit to cheating on their taxes due to fear of punishment or legal trouble. Even though the participants were randomly selected, the environment and context of the interviews could cause dishonest or reluctant responses, leading to biased or inaccurate results.
02

Enhancing Survey Design

To garner more reliable information, the survey should be designed in a way that mitigates the feeling of potential consequences for the respondents. This could involve having the survey conducted by an independent third-party organization instead of the IRS directly, to reduce the intimidation factor. Also, the responses should be anonymous to encourage honesty. The interview could be conducted via phone or online instead of in person, to further increase comfort and reduce biases.
03

Considering Different Survey Methods

Various types of survey methods can be used to improve reliability. Anonymous mail surveys, online surveys, and telephone surveys can reduce the sense of direct scrutiny and make the respondents more comfortable. Also, the questions need to be structured in a non-judgmental manner, to encourage respondents to provide honest answers. The survey should focus on behavior and not personal characteristics. By doing this, the respondents may feel more secure about the anonymity of their responses and therefore be more candid in their responses.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Survey Design
Designing an effective survey is essential for obtaining accurate and reliable data. When creating a survey, several key aspects should be considered to ensure it meets its objectives:
  • Objective Definition: Clearly define what information you aim to gather. This guides how the survey is structured and the type of questions to be included.
  • Target Audience: Know who your respondents should be, as it affects how questions are interpreted and answered. Random sampling can help ensure a representative sample.
  • Question Development: Craft questions carefully to avoid leading respondents towards certain answers. Use straightforward and non-biased language.
  • Survey Method: Consider how the survey will be administered, such as online, in-person, by phone, or mail. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages.
Surveys tailored with these elements can minimize errors and produce valuable insights for decision-makers.
Response Bias
Response bias occurs when survey respondents provide inaccurate answers, often influenced by the way questions are presented or the survey environment. This type of bias can significantly distort survey results.
Here are a few common causes of response bias:
  • Social Desirability: Respondents may alter their answers to appear more favorable in social contexts, which can be a major issue when sensitive topics, like tax evasion, are discussed.
  • Interviewer Influence: The presence or behavior of an interviewer, especially if they represent an authoritative body like the IRS, can intimidate respondents, leading them to answer dishonestly.
  • Question Wording: Leading or ambiguous questions can push respondents towards certain answers. It is crucial to ask questions in a neutral manner.
To reduce response bias, it鈥檚 important to create a comfortable environment where respondents can answer honestly without fear of judgment or repercussions.
Anonymous Surveys
Conducting anonymous surveys can greatly encourage more truthful responses, especially for sensitive topics such as tax compliance. Anonymity in surveys ensures that the identity of respondents is not revealed, promoting a sense of security.
Here鈥檚 why anonymous surveys are beneficial:
  • Encourages Honest Answers: When respondents know their identities are concealed, they are more likely to answer frankly.
  • Reduces Fear of Repercussion: Anonymity minimizes concerns about potential negative consequences from their responses being disclosed.
  • Improves Data Quality: With increased respondent candor, the data collected is likely to be more accurate and reliable.
To implement effective anonymous surveys, it might be helpful to use online platforms that do not track IP addresses, or mail-in surveys without identifiable information. This way, participants feel secure while providing important insights.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Refer to a clinical study conducted at the Houston Veterans Administration Medical Center on the effectiveness of knee surgery to cure degenerative arthritis (osteoarthritis) of the knee. Of the 324 individuals who met the inclusion criteria for the study, 144 declined to participate. The researchers randomly divided the remaining 180 subjects into three groups: One group received a type of arthroscopic knee surgery called debridement; a second group received a type of arthroscopic knee surgery called lavage; and a third group received skin incisions to make it look like they had had arthroscopic knee surgery, but no actual surgery was performed. The patients in the study did not know which group they were in and in particular did not know if they were receiving the real surgery or simulated surgery. All the patients who participated in the study were evaluated for two years after the procedure. In the two-year follow-up, all three groups said that they had slightly less pain and better knee movement, but the "fake" surgery group often reported the best results. (a) Was the sample chosen by random sampling? Explain. (b) Was this study a controlled placebo experiment? Explain.

Refer to the following story: The city of Cleansburg has 8325 registered voters. There is an election for mayor of Cleansburg, and there are three candidates for the position: Smith, Jones, and Brown. The day before the election a telephone poll of 680 randomly chosen registered voters produced the following results: 306 people surveyed indicated that they would vote for Smith, 272 indicated that they would vote for Jones and 102 indicated that they would vote for Brown. (a) Give the sampling proportion for this survey. (b) Give the sample statistic estimating the percentage of the vote going to Smith.

Refer to the following story: The 1250 students at Eureka High School are having an election for Homecoming King. The candidates are Tomlinson (captain of the football team), Garcia (class president), and Marsalis (member of the marching band). At the football game a week before the election, a pre- election poll was taken of students as they entered the stadium gates. Of the students who attended the game, 203 planned to vote for Tomlinson, 42 planned to vote for Garcia, and 105 planned to vote for Marsalis. (a) Give the sample statistics estimating the percentage of the vote going to each candidate. (b) A week after this survey, Garcia was elected Homecoming King with \(51 \%\) of the vote, Marsalis got \(30 \%\) of the vote, and Tomlinson came in last with \(19 \%\) of the vote. Find the sampling errors in the survey expressed as percentages.

Refer to a study conducted between 2008 and 2010 on the effectiveness of saw palmetto fruit extracts at treating lower urinary tract symptoms in men with prostate enlargement. (Saw palmetto is a widely used over-the-counter supplement for treating urinary tract symptoms.) In the study, 369 men aged 45 years or older were randomly divided into a group taking a daily placebo and a group taking saw palmetto. Participants were nonpaid volunteers recruited at 11 North American sites. All had moderately impaired urinary flow. Because the saw palmetto extract has a mild odor, the doses were administered using gelcaps to eliminate the odor. In an analysis of the 306 men who completed the 72 -week trial, both groups had similar small improvements in mean symptom scores, but saw palmetto conferred no benefit over placebo on symptom scores or on any secondary outcomes. (a) Describe as specifically as you can the target population for the study. (b) Compare and contrast the sampling frame and target population for the study.

Refer to the following story: The city of Cleansburg has 8325 registered voters. There is an election for mayor of Cleansburg, and there are three candidates for the position: Smith, Jones, and Brown. The day before the election a telephone poll of 680 randomly chosen registered voters produced the following results: 306 people surveyed indicated that they would vote for Smith, 272 indicated that they would vote for Jones and 102 indicated that they would vote for Brown. Do you think that the sampling error in this example was due primarily to sampling bias or to chance? Explain your answer
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