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Refer to the following story: The city of Cleansburg has 8325 registered voters. There is an election for mayor of Cleansburg, and there are three candidates for the position: Smith, Jones, and Brown. The day before the election a telephone poll of 680 randomly chosen registered voters produced the following results: 306 people surveyed indicated that they would vote for Smith, 272 indicated that they would vote for Jones and 102 indicated that they would vote for Brown. (a) Give the sampling proportion for this survey. (b) Give the sample statistic estimating the percentage of the vote going to Smith.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sampling proportion of the survey is approximately \(0.08165\) or \(8.165 percent\). The estimated percentage of vote going to Smith is \(0.45\) or \(45 percent\).

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the sampling proportion

Sampling proportion can be determined by dividing the number of people surveyed by the total number of registered voters. For this problem, we have \(680\) surveyed voters out of a total of \(8325\) registered voters. The calculation is as follows: \( \frac{680}{8325} = 0.08165 \). This is the sampling proportion. Hence, about \(8.165 \%\) of the total registered voters were surveyed.
02

Calculate the vote estimate for Smith

To get an estimate of the likely percentage of vote that Smith could get, we take the number of people (out of the sampled voters) who indicated that they would vote for Smith and divide by the total number of sampled voters. Hence, the calculation is \( \frac{306}{680} = 0.45 \). This means that about \(45 \%\) of voters from the sample are likely to vote for Smith.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sampling Proportion
Understanding sampling proportion is essential when dealing with survey data. It simply represents the fraction or portion of the total population that has been surveyed. In our scenario with Cleansburg's election, the sampling proportion is determined by dividing the number of surveyed voters (680) by the total number of registered voters (8325).
Mathematically, it's expressed as: \[ \text{Sampling Proportion} = \frac{680}{8325} \] This gives us a sampling proportion of approximately 0.08165, or 8.165%.
This percentage tells us that a small fraction of the total voters were included in the poll. This proportion ensures that the sample is representative of the entire population, assuming random sampling methods were used.
This basic concept helps gauge the breadth and reliability of any survey results.
Sample Statistic
A sample statistic is a numerical value summarizing some aspect of a sample from the population. Here, it's about estimating voting percentages for each candidate based on those who participated in the survey.
For Smith, out of the 680 people surveyed, 306 stated they would vote for him. So, Smith's sample statistic is \[ \text{Sample Statistic for Smith} = \frac{306}{680} \] This results in approximately 0.45, or 45%.
The sample statistic is insightful as it provides an estimate of what the actual voter support might be for Smith in the entire population, given similar voting patterns.
It's important to note that because this is derived from a sample, there's always some degree of uncertainty. But, a well-chosen sample with an accurate sample statistic can be a powerful forecasting tool in political polling, among other fields.
Survey
A survey acts like a vital tool for collecting data, especially when it comes to understanding trends and opinions within a population. In Cleansburg's context, a telephone survey was conducted to assess voter preferences for an upcoming mayoral election.
Surveys are often used because they offer a way to gather insights into large populations without needing to talk to everyone. Key characteristics often include:
  • Random selection, aiming to make the sample representative.
  • Flexibility in questions, allowing for specific information collection.
  • Quick administration, especially with methods like phone calls or online forms.
In this case, 680 registered voters were polled, and their responses were used to estimate broader voter tendencies for the candidates—Smith, Jones, and Brown.
Precision in how surveys are designed and conducted profoundly affects the reliability and accuracy of their results. Well-conducted surveys are indispensable in fields ranging from political analysis to market research, enabling informed decision-making.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Refer to the following story: The city of Cleansburg has 8325 registered voters. There is an election for mayor of Cleansburg, and there are three candidates for the position: Smith, Jones, and Brown. The day before the election a telephone poll of 680 randomly chosen registered voters produced the following results: 306 people surveyed indicated that they would vote for Smith, 272 indicated that they would vote for Jones and 102 indicated that they would vote for Brown. Given that in the actual election Smith received \(42 \%\) of the vote, Jones \(43 \%\) of the vote, and Brown \(15 \%\) of the vote, find the sampling errors in the survey expressed as percentages.

To estimate the population in a rookery, 4965 fur seal pups were captured and tagged in early August. In late August, 900 fur seal pups were captured. Of these, 218 had been tagged. Based on these figures, estimate the population of fur seal pups in the rookery. [Source: Chapman and Johnson, "Estimation of Fur Seal Pup Populations by Randomized Sampling," Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 97 (July 1968), 264-270.

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As part of a sixth-grade class project the teacher brings to class a large jar containing 200 gumballs of two different colors: red and green. Brianna is asked to draw a sample of her own choosing and estimate the number of red gumballs in the jar. Brianna draws a sample of 40 gumballs, of which 14 are red and 26 are green. Use Brianna's sample to estimate the number of red gumballs in the jar.

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