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You want to estimate how many fish there are in a small pond. Let's suppose that you first capture \(n_{1}=500\) fish, tag them, and throw them back into the pond. After a couple of days you go back to the pond and capture \(n_{2}=120\) fish, of which \(k=30\) are tagged. Estimate the number of fish in the pond.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Estimate of the total number of fish in the pond is 2000.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Mark and Recapture Method

The problem provides an exercise in population estimation using the mark and recapture method, which is a common technique in wildlife biology for estimating the size of a population. In this method, a sample of individuals is captured, marked, and released. After some time, another sample is captured, and the number of marked individuals in this second sample is counted. The estimate of the total population (N) is derived from the ratio of marked to unmarked individuals in the second sample, assuming that the proportions of marked to unmarked individuals in the second sample reflect the proportions in the entire population.
02

Setting Up the Proportion

Set up a proportion where the number of tagged fish in the second sample (k) over the total number of fish caught in the second sample (n2) is equivalent to the total number of tagged fish in the entire pond (n1) over the estimated total number of fish in the pond (N): \(\frac{k}{n_{2}} = \frac{n_{1}}{N}\).
03

Solving for the Total Number of Fish

Solve the proportion for the estimated total number of fish in the pond (N) by cross-multiplying and dividing: \(N = \frac{n_{1} \times n_{2}}{k}\).
04

Calculating the Estimate

Substitute the given values into the formula and calculate the estimate: \(N = \frac{500 \times 120}{30} = 2000\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mark and Recapture Method
The mark and recapture method is a cornerstone technique of wildlife biology used to estimate the size of animal populations in the wild. Imagine you're a biologist wanting to know how many fish are in a pond without draining the entire body of water. Instead of counting each fish individually, you capture a sample size, mark these fish in a way that doesn't harm them (such as with a small tag or special dye), and release them back into the water.

After allowing some time for the marked fish to mix back into the pond's population, you capture another sample. Within this second batch, some fish will have your mark, indicating they were part of the original group you captured. Using a formula derived from proportions, you can estimate the total population of the pond based on the ratio of marked to unmarked fish in this second sample. This method relies on the key assumption that the marked fish have distributed themselves uniformly among the unmarked ones in the pond.
Wildlife Biology
Wildlife biology is the study of animals and their interactions within their habitats. As a wildlife biologist, you're interested in understanding various aspects of wild animal populations – such as their behavior, genetic diversity, and population dynamics. Monitoring population size is critical to conservation efforts because it allows you to detect changes over time, which could indicate the health of an ecosystem.

For instance, a sudden decline in a certain fish population in a pond might signal environmental stress or issues with water quality. Tools like the mark and recapture method equip biologists with valuable data to make informed decisions about habitat preservation and species protection. Without directly observing every individual, you gather quantitative evidence to back up conservation strategies.
Proportions
Proportions are mathematical statements that express two ratios are equal. They are fundamental to various sampling techniques, including the mark and recapture method. When we set up the proportion \(\frac{k}{n_{2}} = \frac{n_{1}}{N}\), we're essentially stating that the small, observable part of the population (the second sample) reflects the much larger, unseen whole (the total population in the pond).

Understanding ratios and proportions is critical because it helps us establish the connection between the known quantity (the number of marked fish recaptured) and the unknown quantity (the total fish population). By solving this proportion, we extrapolate information gathered from a manageable sample to draw conclusions about the entire population, which could be vast and impractical to measure directly.
Sampling Techniques
Sampling techniques are methods for selecting a part of a population to represent the whole. These techniques are vital in fields such as ecology, where surveying entire populations is often logistically or financially unfeasible. The mark and recapture method is one type of sampling technique. It allows for estimation of population sizes through indirect methods.

In the context of our fish pond example, your initial sample of 500 fish (\(n_{1}\)) and second sample of 120 fish (\(n_{2}\)) allow you to make estimations without the need to capture every single fish. By understanding and applying the principles of sampling, you can estimate not only numbers but also other parameters of populations, like disease prevalence or genetic diversity, which are crucial for scientific study and policy-making in wildlife management and conservation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

An article in the Providence Jourmal about automobile accident fatalities includes the following observation: "Fortytwo percent of all fatalities occurred on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, apparently because of increased drinking on the weekends." (a) Give a possible argument as to why the conclusion drawn may not be justified by the data. (b) Give a different possible argument as to why the conclusion drawn may be justified by the data after all.

Name the sampling method that best describes each situation. Choose your answer from the following (A) simple random sampling, (B) convenience sampling, (C) quota sampling, (D) stratified sampling, (E) census. (a) George wants to know how the rest of the class did on the last quiz. He peeks at the scores of a few students sitting right next to him. Based on what he sees, he concludes that nobody did very well. (b) Eureka High School has 400 freshmen, 300 sophomores, 300 juniors, and 200 seniors. The student newspaper conducts a poll asking students if the football coach should be fired. The student newspaper randomly selects 20 freshmen, 15 sophomores, 15 juniors, and 10 seniors for the poll. (c) For the last football game of the season, the coach chooses the three captains by putting the names of all the players in a hat and drawing three names. (Maybe that's why they are trying to fire him!) (d) For the last football game of the season, the coach chooses the three captains by putting the names of all the seniors in a hat and drawing three names.

Informal surveys. In everyday life we are constantly involved in activities that can be described as informal surveys, often without even realizing it. Here are some examples. (i) Al gets up in the morning and wants to know what kind of day it is going to be, so he peeks out the window. He doesn't see any dark clouds, so he figures it's not going to rain. (ii) Betty takes a sip from a cup of coffee and burns her lips. She concludes that the coffee is too hot and decides to add a tad of cold water to it. (iii) Carla got her first Math 101 exam back with a C grade on it. The students sitting on each side of her also received C grades. She concludes that the entire Math 101 class received a C on the first exam. For each of the preceding examples, (a) describe the population. (b) discuss whether the sample is random or not. (c) discuss the validity of the conclusions drawn. (There is no right or wrong answer to this question, but you should be able to make a reasonable case for your position.)

One implicit assumption when using the capture-recapture method to estimate the size of a population is that the capture process is truly random, with all individuals having the same likelihood of being captured. Sometimes that is not true, and some populations have a large number of individuals that are "trap-happy" individuals (more prone to capture than others, more likely to take the bait, less cagey, slower, dumber, etc.). If that were the case, would the capture-recapture method be likely to underestimate or overestimate the size of the population? Explain your answer.

Refer to the following story: An orange grow. er wishes to compute the average yield from his orchard. The orchard contains three varieties of trees: \(50 \%\) of his trees are of variety \(A, 25 \%\) of variety \(B,\) and \(25 \%\) of variety \(C\) (a) Suppose that in his survey, the grower found that each tree of variety A averages 100 oranges, each tree of variety \(\mathrm{B}\) averages 50 oranges, and each tree of varietyC averages 70 oranges. Estimate the average yield per tree of his orchard. (b) Is the yield you found in (a) a parameter or a statistic? Explain.

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