/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 70 An article in the Providence Jou... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

An article in the Providence Jourmal about automobile accident fatalities includes the following observation: "Fortytwo percent of all fatalities occurred on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, apparently because of increased drinking on the weekends." (a) Give a possible argument as to why the conclusion drawn may not be justified by the data. (b) Give a different possible argument as to why the conclusion drawn may be justified by the data after all.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The conclusion may not be justified by the data because correlation does not imply causation; there could be other factors leading to more accidents on weekends. However, it may be justified by the fact that weekends typically involve more social events with alcohol consumption, which is known to impair driving.

Step by step solution

01

Analyzing the Data and Conclusion

The observation notes that 42% of fatalities occurred on the weekend and suggests increased drinking as a possible cause. It's important to consider other factors that could contribute to the data.
02

Argument Against Justification

One argument against the justification is the assumption of causation from correlation. Just because more accidents happen on the weekends does not inherently mean they are caused by increased drinking. Other factors like increased traffic, longer travel distances, or more recreational activities could also contribute to the higher fatality rates.
03

Argument For Justification

An argument for justification could point out that the weekends are typically when people have more leisure time, leading to more social gatherings where alcohol is consumed. Studies have shown that drinking impairs driving ability, making the conclusion that increased drinking leads to more fatalities plausible.

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91Ó°ÊÓ!

Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Causation versus Correlation
Understanding the difference between causation and correlation is crucial in interpreting data accurately. In the case of the observed data on car fatalities during weekends, a correlation is noted between the days and the number of accidents. However, correlation does not imply causation. While it's true that there is a higher occurrence of accidents on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, attributing this to increased drinking is an assumption and might not directly cause the accidents.

Multiple factors could influence the uptick in accidents during weekends, such as more cars on the road due to people traveling for trips or attending events. It's also possible that the increase in accidents could correlate with any number of unconsidered variables, such as poor weather or road conditions unique to the weekends. Thus, establishing a causal relationship necessitates a closer examination beyond the surface-level observation of the data.
Data Analysis
Data analysis involves scrutinizing information to draw conclusions or make predictions. In the provided example, the initial analysis reveals a 42% increase in automobile fatalities during weekends, which prompts further investigation. It is imperative to approach data with a critical mindset and consider all possible variables that could affect the outcomes. This process may entail exploring the context of the data, such as the timing of occurrences, regional driving habits, or any special events that may have been taking place during the collection period.

When analyzing data, one should also be wary of biases or underlying assumptions that may lead to misconceptions about the causes of observed patterns. For instance, if there was an assumption that increased drinking always occurs on weekends, one might unjustly conclude that it leads to more fatalities. But effective data analysis would require examining all the relevant evidence, perhaps through studies or additional data that specifically link alcohol consumption to accident rates on weekends.
Argument Construction
Creating a well-structured argument is a central skill, especially when interpreting data and forming conclusions. An argument must be based on logic and supported by evidence. In the case of the Providence Journal article, one can construct arguments both for and against the conclusion that increased drinking on weekends causes more fatalities.

To argue against the conclusion, one might present alternative explanations for the accident data such as changes in traffic flow, distractions, or even road construction that are more prevalent on weekends. It is important to cite studies or data points that contradict the drinking hypothesis or show no significant correlation between alcohol consumption and accidents for that specific time period in that specific area.

Conversely, to construct an argument supporting the conclusion, one would need to gather evidence, possibly including statistics on DUI arrests during weekends, to reinforce the notion that drinking is indeed a factor in the increased fatalities. Gathering testimonies from law enforcement or citing research on alcohol-related accidents can solidify this position. In argument construction, one should aim to make the reasoning as tight and coherent as possible, anticipating counterarguments and addressing them within the narrative.

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

Refer to a clinical trial named APPROVe designed to determine whether Vioxx, a medication used for ar. thritis and acute pain, was effective in preventing the recurrence of colorectal polyps in patients with a history of colorectal adenomas. APPROVe was conducted between 2002 and 2003 and involved 2586 participants, all of whom had a history of colorectal adenomas. The participants were randomly divided into two groups: 1287 were given 25 milligrams of Vioxx daily for the duration of the clinical trial (originally intended to last three years), and \(1299 \mathrm{pa}\) tients were given a placebo. Neither the participants nor the doctors involved in the clinical trial knew who was in which group. During the trial, 72 of the participants had cardiovascular events (mostly heart attacks or strokes). Later it was found that 46 of these people were from the group taking the Vioxx and only 26 were from the group taking the placebo. Based on these results, the clinical trial was stopped in 2003 and Vioxx was taken off the market in \(2004 .\) (a) Describe the control and treatment groups in APPROVe.

The critically endangered Maui's dolphin is currently restricted to a relatively small stretch of coastline along the west coast of New Zealand's North Island. The dolphins are "captured" by just collecting samples of DNA and "tagged" by identifying their DNA fingerprint. A 2010 2011 capture- recapture study "captured" and "tagged" 26 Maui's dolphins in \(2010 .\) In 2011,27 Maui's dolphins were "recaptured" and through their DNA, 12 were identified as having been "tagged" in 2010. Based on these figures, estimate the population of Maui's dolphins in 2011. [Source: Oremus, \(\mathbf{M}_{\cdot,}\) et al, "Distribution, group characteristics and movements of the critically endangered Maui's Dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori maui)." Endangered Species Research, preprint.]

Today, most consumer marketing surveys are conducted by telephone. In selecting a sample of households that are representative of all the households in a given geographical area, the two basic techniques used are (1) randomly selecting telephone numbers to call from the local telephone directory or directories and (2) using a computer to randomly generate seven-digit numbers to try that are compatible with the local phone numbers. (a) Briefly discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each technique. In your opinion, which of the two will produce the more reliable data? Explain. (b) Suppose that you are trying to market burglar alarms in New York City. Which of the two techniques for selecting the sample would you use? Explain your reasons.

You are a fruit wholesaler. You have just received 250 crates of pineapples: 75 crates came from supplier \(A, 75\) crates from supplier \(\mathrm{B}\), and 100 crates from supplier \(\mathrm{C}\). You wish to determine if the pineapples are good enough to ship to your best customers by inspecting a sample of \(n=20\) crates. Describe how you might implement each of the following sampling methods. (a) Simple random sampling (b) Convenience sampling (c) Stratified sampling (d) Ouota sampling

Darroch's method. is a method for estimating the size of a population using multiple (more than two) captures. For example, suppose that there are four captures of sizes \(n_{1}, n_{2}, n_{3},\) and \(n_{4},\) respectively, and let \(M\) be the total number of distinct individuals caught in the four captures (i.e., an individual that is captured in more than one capture is counted only once). Darroch's method gives the estimate for \(N\) as the unique solution of the equation \(\left(1-\frac{M}{N}\right)=\left(1-\frac{n_{1}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{2}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{3}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{4}}{N}\right) .\) (a) Suppose that we are estimating the size of a population of fish in a pond using four separate captures. The sizes of the captures are \(n_{1}=30, n_{2}=15, n_{3}=22\), and \(n_{4}=45 .\) The number of distinct fish caught is \(M=75 .\) Estimate the size of the population using Darroch's formula. (b) Show that with just two captures Darroch's method gives the same answer as the capture-recapture method.

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.