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The distribution of grade point averages GPAs for medical school applicants in 2017 were approximately Normal, with a mean of \(3.56\) and a standard deviation of \(0.34\). Suppose a medical school will only consider candidates with GPAs in the top \(15 \%\) of the applicant pool. An applicant has a GPA of \(3.71\). Does this GPA fall in the top \(15 \%\) of the applicant pool?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The answer will be determined by comparing the calculated z-score with the critical z-score for the top 15%. If the calculated score is larger, then the GPA falls in the top 15%. To be sure, one has to calculate the z-score using the given values and the formula explained, then compare with the critical z-score.

Step by step solution

01

Calculation of z-score

Firstly, calculate the z-score using the formula \(z = \frac{{X - \mu}}{{\sigma}}\), where \(X\) represents the grade point average of an individual applicant, \(\mu\) represents the mean GPA, and \(\sigma\) represents the standard deviation of GPAs. Substituting the given values, we have \(z = \frac{{3.71 - 3.56}}{{0.34}}\).
02

Evaluation of z-score

Calculate the value of the z-score. An online z-score calculator (or a calculator with statistical functions) could be helpful with this.
03

Comparison with Critical Z-Score

Refer to the z-table or use an online calculator to find the z-score corresponding to the top 15% (or 85th percentile). The critical z-score for the 85th percentile is approximately \(z = 1.036\). If the computed z-score is greater than 1.036, then the GPA falls within the top 15%.
04

Conclusion

Based on the comparison of the calculated z-score with the critical z-score for the 85th percentile (top 15%), make a conclusion whether the applicant's GPA falls within the top 15%

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Normal Distribution
The concept of a normal distribution, also known as a Gaussian distribution, is pivotal in statistics. It describes how the values of a variable are distributed. Imagine the shape of a bell — this is what a normal distribution looks like, with most values clustering around the mean (average) and fewer occuring as they move farther away.

For example, in the case of GPAs for medical school applicants, we'd expect most GPAs to be around the mean of 3.56, with fewer and fewer individuals having much higher or lower GPAs. Why is this shape so common? It often emerges naturally when a variable is influenced by many small, random disturbances, making it a foundational model in the study of statistics.
Standard Deviation Simplified
Standard deviation (denoted as \(\sigma\)) measures how spread out numbers are in a set of data. The smaller the standard deviation, the closer the data points tend to be to the mean (or average). Conversely, a larger standard deviation indicates more variability and a wider range of values.

Let’s unravel it with the GPA example: A standard deviation of 0.34 means that most GPAs are within 0.34 points above or below the average score of 3.56. This gives us a view into the variability of applicants' GPAs around the average, providing context to individual scores.
Decoding Percentiles
Percentiles are useful for understanding how a particular value compares to the rest of the data set. For instance, being in the 85th percentile means that 85% of the data points are below your value and 15% are above it.

In our GPA scenario, if you wanted to be in the top 15% of the applicant pool, you would need a GPA higher than what 85% of the applicants scored. Percentiles are particularly helpful in academic and professional settings where ranking individuals in relation to their peers is important.
The Role of Statistical Significance
Statistical significance comes into play when determining whether a result (like a GPA) is likely due to chance, or if it represents a real finding. In a broader sense, it helps us make decisions based on the data at hand. For instance, a medical school may use statistical significance to draw a line between candidates they consider for admission and those they do not.

If an applicant’s GPA falls within the top 15% of the pool, this could be deemed statistically significant, leading the school to conclude the applicant is a strong candidate and worth considering for admission. On the other hand, being below this percentile may signify a less competitive GPA, possibly due to the randomness of scores within the applicant pool.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Use the table or technology to find the answer to each question. Include an appropriately labeled sketch of the Normal curve for each part. Shade the appropriate region. A section of the Normal table is provided in the previous exercise. a. Find the area to the left of a \(z\) -score of \(0.92\). b. Find the area to the right of a z-score of \(0.92\).

For each question, find the area to the right of the given \(z\) -score in a standard Normal distribution. In this question, round your answers to the nearest \(0.000\). Include an appropriately labeled sketch of the \(N(0,1)\) curve. a. \(z=-4.00\) b. \(z=-8.00\) c. \(z=-30.00\) d. If you had the exact probability for these right proportions, which would be the largest and which would be the smallest? e. Which is equal to the area in part b: the area below (to the left of) \(z=8.00\) or the area above (to the right of) \(z=8.00 ?\)

In a standard Normal distribution, if the area to the left of a z-score is about \(0.6666\), what is the approximate z-score? First locate, inside the table, the number closest to \(0.6666 .\) Then find the z-score by adding \(0.4\) and \(0.03\); refer to the table. Draw a sketch of the Normal curve, showing the area and the \(z\) -score.

Whales have one of the longest gestation periods of any mammal. According to whalefacts.org, the mean gestation period for a whale is 14 months. Assume the distribution of gestation periods is Normal with a standard deviation of \(1.2\) months. a. Find the standard score associated with a gestational period of \(12.8\) months. b. Using the Empirical Rule and your answer to part a, what percentage of whale pregnancies will have a gestation period between \(12.8\) months and 14 months? c. Would it be unusual for a whale to have a gestation period of 18 months? Why or why not?

The distribution of spring high temperatures in Los Angeles is approximately Normal, with a mean of 75 degrees and a standard deviation of \(2.5\) degrees. a. What is the probability that the high temperature is less than 70 degrees in Los Angeles on a day in spring? b. What percentage of Spring day in Los Angeles have high temperatures between 70 and 75 degrees? c. Suppose the hottest spring day in Los Angeles had a high temperature of 91 degrees. Would this be considered unusually high, given the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution? Why or why not?

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