/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 75 If you flip a fair coin repeated... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

If you flip a fair coin repeatedly and the first four results are tails, are you more likely to get heads on the next flip, more likely to get tails again, or equally likely to get heads or tails?

Short Answer

Expert verified
You are equally likely to get heads or tails on the next flip, each with a probability of 0.5 or 50%, regardless of previous results.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the problem

The exercise deals with the misconception that previous results would affect the outcome of the next event. But in this case, as we are dealing with independent events, the result of the coin flip won’t be affected by the outcomes of the prior flips. The probability of each outcome of a fair coin flip is equal — 50% heads and 50% tails, no matter what has happened before.
02

Considering Fairness of Coin

As we are dealing with a fair coin, meaning it's not biased, the probabilities of landing on heads or tails are equal. The probability of heads is 0.5, or 50%, and so is the probability of tails. Thus, P(Heads) = P(Tails) = 0.5
03

Considering Coin Flip Independence

This is crucial: coin flips are independent. So, the outcome of the 5th flip is unaffected by the results of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th flip. The previous results have no effect on the probability of the next coin flip, as the coin has no memory of previous flips.
04

Determining Likelihood of Next Outcome

Results of previous flips do not affect the result of the next flip. Thus, having flipped tails four times in a row has no bearing on the likelihood of getting heads or tails on the fifth flip. That is, you are equally likely to get heads or tails on the next flip.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
In probability, the idea of independent events is fundamental. Independent events are those whose outcomes do not affect one another. This means that the result of one event has no influence on the result of another event. When flipping a coin, each flip is an independent event.

Imagine you're flipping a coin. Whether you get heads or tails on one flip does not change the 50% probability of heads on the next flip. The coin does not have a memory, and each flip resets the probability to the same 50-50 chance.

Understanding this concept is crucial for solving problems that involve sequences of events, such as flipping a "fair coin" multiple times. Always remember that past results don't alter the probability of future independent outcomes.
Fair Coin
A fair coin is a coin that has no bias; this means that it has an equal chance of landing on either side when tossed. In mathematical terms, the probability of getting a head is 0.5, and the probability of getting a tail is also 0.5.
  • Because these probabilities are equal, we assume the coin is fair.
  • Regardless of how many times you flip the coin, the chance remains the same: 50% for heads and 50% for tails.

The concept of a fair coin is crucial in probability exercises because it provides a simple context to learn about probability distributions and concepts like randomness and fairness. A fair coin means each outcome (heads or tails) is equally likely, and it's a perfect tool for exploring probability basics.
Misconceptions in Probability
Probability can often be counterintuitive, leading to misconceptions. One widespread misconception is that past events can influence the outcomes of future independent events. This is false for independent events like coin flips.

One common error people make is the "gambler's fallacy," where they believe if something happens frequently in the past, like getting tails four times in a row, the opposite outcome is somehow "due" to occur. In reality, each coin flip resets the probabilities.
  • People also sometimes think that unlikely events are less likely to repeat, but each event's probability remains independent.
  • It's important to rely on probability principles rather than gut feelings when working with statistics.
Correcting these misconceptions helps in understanding that in the case of a fair coin, each flip remains an independent 50/50 chance regardless of past flips.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In addition to behind-the-wheel tests, states require written tests before issuing drivers licenses. The failure rate for the written driving test in Florida is about \(60 \%\). (Source: tampabay.com) Suppose three drivers' license test-takers in Florida are randomly selected. Find the probability of the following: a. all three fail the test b. none fail the test c. only one fails the test

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