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In addition to behind-the-wheel tests, states require written tests before issuing drivers licenses. The failure rate for the written driving test in Florida is about \(60 \%\). (Source: tampabay.com) Suppose three drivers' license test-takers in Florida are randomly selected. Find the probability of the following: a. all three fail the test b. none fail the test c. only one fails the test

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that all three test-takers fail the test is approximately 0.216, that none fails the test is approximately 0.064 and that only one fails the test is about 0.288.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the probability that all three fail the test

To find the probability that all three fail the test, we use the formula for binomial distribution with n=3 (three test-takers), k=3 (all three fail), and p=0.6 (probability of failure). So we get \[P(X=3) = C(3, 3) * (0.6^3) * ((1-0.6)^(3-3)) = 1 * 0.216 * 1 = 0.216\]
02

Calculate the probability that none fail the test

Again we use the formula for binomial distribution, but this time with k=0 (none fail). This results in \[P(X=0) = C(3, 0) * (0.6^0) * ((1-0.6)^(3-0)) = 1 * 1 * 0.064 = 0.064. \]
03

Calculate the probability that only one fails the test

\[P(X=1) = C(3, 1) * (0.6^1) * ((1-0.6)^(3-1)) = 3 * 0.6 * 0.16 = 0.288. \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Failure Rate
The failure rate in a probability context is simply the probability of an event not achieving its desired outcome. Here, the failure rate refers to how often drivers do not pass the written test. In Florida, the failure rate for this written driving test is a whopping 60%. This means if you randomly pick someone taking the test, there’s a 60% chance they won't pass. Understanding the failure rate is crucial because it sets the stage for calculating the likelihood of different possible outcomes for a group of test-takers.
  • If the failure rate is high, like 60%, it indicates that most people do not pass.
  • This information helps in determining the various probabilities of how many might fail or pass when you have a group of candidates.
Knowing the failure rate allows us to apply it in statistical methods, such as the binomial distribution, to find out probabilities of different scenarios involving multiple attempts.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation involves using mathematical concepts to measure how likely an event is to occur. It is expressed in fractions, decimals, or percentages. For this exercise, we are specifically interested in finding the probability of test-takers failing the written driving test in Florida.To calculate the probability:
  • We apply the principles of binomial distribution, which considers two outcomes: pass or fail.
  • The probability of failure is represented by \(p\) (in this case, 0.6).
  • The complementary probability of passing is \(1-p\) (here, 0.4).
Each probability calculation can be done using the binomial formula to find different cases:- The probability that all fail.- The probability that none fail.- The probability that only one fails.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a statistical method used to model the probability of a certain number of successes (or failures) in a series of independent trials. Each trial has two possible outcomes, making it a suitable model for our problem about passing or failing a driving test. With binomial distribution:
  • The number of trials is represented by \(n\), which is 3 here as there are three test-takers.
  • The number of desired outcomes, like all failing or only one failing, is represented by \(k\).
  • The binomial coefficient, \(C(n, k)\), explains how many ways \(k\) successes can occur in \(n\) trials.
The general binomial formula is \[P(X = k) = C(n, k) \times p^k \times (1-p)^{n-k}\]This formula allows us to find the probability of various scenarios:- For all three failing the test, where \(k=3\), \(P(X=3)\).- For none failing, \(k=0\), \(P(X=0)\).- For only one failing, \(k=1\), \(P(X=1)\).By plugging in the values, we can compute each probability and understand the distribution and likelihood of outcomes.

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