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Card If you draw a card from a fair deck of cards and the first five draws (after replacement each time) are black cards, are you more likely to get a red card on the next draw, more likely to draw a black card again, or equally likely to get a red or a black card?

Short Answer

Expert verified
You are equally likely to draw a red or a black card on the next draw.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Independent Events

Events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. Here, drawing a card and replacing it is an independent event. The card drawn in one event does not impact the card drawn in any other.
02

Calculate the Probability of Drawing a Black Card

The number of black cards in the deck is 26, and total cards are 52. Therefore, the probability of drawing a black card is \(\frac{26}{52}\) or \(0.5\). This probability remains the same for every draw since the card is replaced each time.
03

Calculate the Probability of Drawing a Red Card

Similar to the calculation for black cards, there are also 26 red cards in the deck, and the total cards are 52. Hence, the probability of drawing a red card is \(\frac{26}{52}\) or \(0.5\).
04

Compare the Probabilities

The probability of drawing a black card and the probability of drawing a red card are both \(0.5\). Hence, regardless of the prior draws, the probability of drawing a red card or a black card on the next draw is always equally likely.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
In probability, independent events are a crucial concept that help us understand how different events interact with each other. An event is considered independent if the outcome of one event does not alter or influence the probability of the other events occurring. This means that each event stands alone, unaffected by any previous events.

In the context of drawing cards from a deck, when you replace the card back into the deck before drawing again, each draw is an independent event. This is because the total number of cards remains the same throughout, maintaining consistent probabilities for each draw.

Understanding independent events is vital for accurately calculating probabilities in scenarios like this. It assures us that each draw is a fresh event, uninfluenced by what happened on prior draws, leading to a clear and fair understanding of probabilities.
Deck of Cards
A standard deck of cards is a fascinating tool in probability problems. It comprises 52 cards divided into four suits: spades, hearts, diamonds, and clubs. Each suit contains 13 cards, with spades and clubs being black, while hearts and diamonds are red.

This structure helps us explore various probability scenarios. For instance, when talking about drawing a black card, we refer to either a club or a spade. Knowing that there are 26 red cards and 26 black cards allows us to perform straightforward probability calculations.

When used in probability exercises, the deck of cards helps illustrate concepts like equally likely outcomes and the importance of replacement to maintain an independent event status. This ensures that the probabilities remain constant across multiple draws, adding consistency to our calculations.
Equally Likely Outcomes
In probability, equally likely outcomes imply that each possible result has the same chance of occurring. This concept is pivotal in solving many probability problems, including those involving a deck of cards.

When you draw a card from a deck and replace it, each new draw does not favor any specific outcome. In the context of our problem, since there are 26 black cards and 26 red cards, each draw has a \(\frac{26}{52}\) probability for black and a \(\frac{26}{52}\) probability for red, both equating to 0.5.

Equally likely outcomes ensure that every event has the same probability, reflecting fairness and balance. This understanding helps us predict that, despite previous draws being black, each new draw will still have an equal chance of being red or black when the card is replaced.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Coin (Example 14) Imagine flipping three fair coins. a. What is the theoretical probability that all three come up heads? b. What is the theoretical probability that the first toss is tails AND the next two are heads?

Coin Flips Imagine flipping a fair coin many times. Explain what should happen to the proportion of heads as the number of coin flips increases.

Simulation: Six-Sided Die a. Explain how you could use a random number table to simulate rolling a fair six-sided die 20 times. Assume you wish to find the probability of rolling a 1 . Then report a line or two of the random number table (or numbers generated by a computer or calculator) and the values that were obtained from it. b. Report the empirical probability of rolling a 1 from part \(a\), and compare it with the theoretical probability of rolling a 1 .

Recidivism (Example 16) Norway's recidivism rate is one of the lowest in the world at \(20 \%\). This means that about \(20 \%\) of released prisoners end up back in prison (within three years). Suppose three randomly selected prisoners who have been released are studied. a. What is the probability that all three of them go back to prison? What assumptions must you make to calculate this? b. What is the probability that neither of them goes back to prison? c. What is the probability that at least two go back to prison?

Coin Flips Let H stand for heads and let T stand for tails in an experiment where a fair coin is flipped twice. Assume that the four outcomes listed are equally likely outcomes: \(\mathrm{HH}, \mathrm{HT}, \mathrm{TH}, \mathrm{TT}\) What are the probabilities of getting: a. 0 heads? b. Exactly 1 head? c. Exactly 2 heads? d. At least 1 head? e. Not more than 2 heads?

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