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Chapter 4: Q5 (page 178)
Subjective Probability Estimate the probability that the next time you ride in a car, the car gets a flat tire.
The estimated probability value that the car gets a flat tire the next time you ride in it is equal to 0.001.
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Subjective Probability Estimate the probability that the next time you turn on a light switch, you discover that a bulb does work.
In Exercises 9鈥�12, assume that 50 births are randomly selected. Use subjective judgment to describe the given number of girls as (a) significantly low, (b) significantly high, or (c) neither significantly low nor significantly high.
26 girls.
Confusion of the Inverse Using the same events F and H described in Exercise 3, describe confusion of the inverse.
Denomination Effect. In Exercises 13鈥�16, use the data in the following table. In an experiment to study the effects of using a \(1 bill or a \)1 bill, college students were given either a \(1 bill or a \)1 bill and they could either keep the money or spend it on gum. The results are summarized in the table (based on data from 鈥淭he Denomination Effect,鈥� by Priya Raghubir and Joydeep Srivastava, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 36).
Purchased Gum | Kept the Money | |
Students Given A \(1 bill | 27 | 46 |
Students Given a \)1 bill | 12 | 34 |
Denomination Effect
a. Find the probability of randomly selecting a student who kept the money, given that the student was given four quarters.
b. Find the probability of randomly selecting a student who kept the money, given that the student was given a $1 bill.
c. What do the preceding results suggest?
In Exercises 21鈥�24, use these results from the 鈥�1-Panel-THC鈥� test for marijuana use, which is provided by the company Drug Test Success: Among 143 subjects with positive test results, there are 24 false positive results; among 157 negative results, there are 3 false negative results. (Hint: Construct a table similar to Table 4-1, which is included with the Chapter Problem.)
Testing for Marijuana Use If one of the test subjects is randomly selected, find the probability that the subject tested negative or used marijuana.
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