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Chapter 4: Q4 (page 143)

Subjective Probability Estimate the probability that the next time you turn on a light switch, you discover that a bulb does work.

Short Answer

Expert verified

An estimate of the probability that the next time the bulb will glow when the light switch is turned on is equal to 0.998.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

Consider an event that a bulb does not glows when the light switch is pressed.

02

Describe the probability

The ratio of the number of favorable outcomes of an event to the total number of outcomes is theprobability of that event.

Subjective probabilityis determined by an estimated belief of a person and not by conducting an experiment and noting the outcomes.

It is considered a rough estimate and is based onprevious experience.

The subjective probability is random and may vary per the experiences of events in the past.

03

Estimating the probability

Consider a situation thatthe individual believes that 2 in 1000 attempts, the switch does not work.

The probability that the bulb would not work on any arbitrary attempt is 0.002.

Based on this experience, it can be estimated that the next time a light switch is pressed, there is a fairly high chance equal to 0.998 that the bulb will glow.

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