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Confusion of the Inverse Using the same events F and H described in Exercise 3, describe confusion of the inverse.

Short Answer

Expert verified

The confusion of the inverse arises when PH|Fis considered equal to PF|Hwhich are the probabilities of two different events.

  • PH|Fis the probability of selecting a high school classmate, given that she is a female friend.
  • PF|His the probability of selecting a female friend, given that he/she is a high school classmate.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

Refer to exercise 3, where a random Facebook friend is selected. H is the event of selecting a high school classmate, while F is the event of selecting a female friend.

02

Define conditional probability 

Let A and B be two events.

Given that A has already occurred, the probability that B occurs is called theconditional probability of B given A. It has the notation PB|A.

When PB|Ais considered the same as PA|B, it is called the confusion of the inverse. In general,PB|A≠PA|B .

03

Confusion of the inverse with reference to the given events

The two events H and F are defined as the event of selecting a high school classmate and event of selecting a female friend, respectively.

As per the definition of conditional probability, PH|Fis the probability of selecting a high school classmate, given that the friend is a female, whereas PF|His the probability of selecting a female friend given that he/she is a high school classmate.

The confusion of the inverse states the fact thatPH|F is considered equal toPF|H.

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