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Denomination Effect. In Exercises 13鈥16, use the data in the following table. In an experiment to study the effects of using four quarters or a \(1 bill, college students were given either four quarters or a \)1 bill and they could either keep the money or spend it on gum. The results are summarized in the table (based on data from 鈥淭he Denomination Effect,鈥 by Priya Raghubir and Joydeep Srivastava, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 36).

Purchased Gum

Kept the Money

Students Given Four Quarters

27

46

Students Given a $1 bill

12

34

Denomination Effect

a. Find the probability of randomly selecting a student who spent the money, given that the student was given four quarters.

b. Find the probability of randomly selecting a student who kept the money, given that the student was given four quarters.

c. What do the preceding results suggest?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a. The probability of selecting a student who spent the money, given that the student was provided four quarters, is equal to 0.628.

b. The probability of selecting a studentwho kept the money, given that the student was provided four quarters, is equal to 0.372.

c. If students are given four quarters, they tend to spend the money rather than keeping it.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The number of students who were given four quarters as well as a $1 bill is tabulated based on whether they kept the money or spent it.

02

Conditional probability

As the name suggests, the conditional probability of an eventis the probability of the event happening subject to a condition that an event has already occurred. It has the following formula:

03

Compute the conditional probability

Let A be the event of selecting a student who was given four quarters.

Let B be the event of selecting a student who was given a $1 bill.

Let C be the event of selecting a student who spent the money (purchased gum).

Let D be the event of selecting a student who kept the money.

The following table shows the necessary totals:

Purchased Gum

Kept the Money

Totals

Students Given Four Quarters

27

16

43

Students Given a $1 bill

12

34

46

Totals

39

50

89

a.

The total number of students is equal to 89.

The number of students who were given four quarters is equal to 43.

The probability of selecting a student who was provided four quarters is given by:

PA=4389

The number of students who were given four quarters and spent the money is equal to 27.

The probability of selecting a student who was provided four quarters and spent the money is given by:

PAandC=2789

The probability of selecting a student who spent the money, given that he/she was provided four quarters, is computed as follows:

PC|A=PAandCPA=27894389=2743=0.628

Therefore, the probability of selecting a student who spent the money, given that he/she was provided four quarters, is equal to 0.628.

b.

The number of students who were given four quarters and kept the money is equal to 16.

The probability of selecting a student who was given four quarters and kept the money is given by:

PAandD=1689

The probability of selecting a student who kept the money, given that he/she was provided four quarters, is computed as follows:

PD|A=PAandDPA=16894389=1643=0.372

Therefore, the probability of selecting a student who kept the money, given that he/she was provided four quarters, is equal to 0.372.

04

 Step 4: Interpret the results

c.

As the probability of selecting a student who spent the money is greater than that of a student who kept the money when offered with four quarters, it can be concluded that students tend to spend money rather than keep it.

Thus, it is suggestive that there is a significantly higher tendency to purchase gum rather than keep the money if offered four quarters.

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