/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Q20 In Exercises 17鈥20, refer to t... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91影视

91影视

In Exercises 17鈥20, refer to the accompanying table showing results from a Chembio test for hepatitis C among HIV-infected patients (based on data from a variety of sources).

Positive Test Result

Negative Test Result

Hepatitis C

335

10

No Hepatitis C

2

1153

Negative Predictive Value Find the negative predictive value for the test. That is, find the probability that a subject does not have hepatitis C, given that the test yields a negative result. Does the result make the test appear to be effective?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability of selecting a subject who does not have Hepatitis C, given that the test result is negative, is equal to 0.9914.

As the probability is close to one, it can be concluded that the test is highly effective in correctly diagnosing the absence of Hepatitis C.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The given data consists of the number of people with and without Hepatitis C categorized as per the test results; negative or positive.

02

Conditional probability

Conditional probability is computed for an event whose occurrence is based on another event.

The conditional probability of B, given A, has the following notation:

PB|A=PAandBPA

Here,PAandB refers to the probability of events A and B happening together.

03

Compute the conditional probability

Let A be the event of selecting a subject who has Hepatitis C

Let B be the event of selecting a subject who does not have Hepatitis C.

Let C be the event of selecting a subject who has a positive test result.

Let D be the event of selecting a subject who has a negative test result.

The following table consists of the total frequency under each category:

Positive Test Result

Negative Test Result

Totals

Hepatitis C

335

10

345

No Hepatitis C

2

1153

1155

Totals

337

1163

1500

The total number of subjects is equal to 1500.

The number of subjects who tested negative is equal to 1163.

The probability of selecting a subject who tested negative is given as follows:

PD=11631500

The number of subjects without Hepatitis C who have tested negative is equal to 1153.

The probability of selecting a subject who tested negative and does not have Hepatitis C is given by:

PBandD=11531500

The probability of selecting a subject who does not have Hepatitis C, given that he/she tested negative, is calculated as follows:

PB|D=PBandDPD=1153150011631500=11531163=0.9914

Therefore, the probability of selecting a subject who does not have Hepatitis C, given that he/she tested negative, is equal to 0.9914.

04

Interpret the effectiveness of the result

The event of not having Hepatitis C, given that the test result is negative, indicates one aspect of the effectiveness of the test, which is correctly detecting the disease.

As the probability value is very high (close to one), it can be said that the test is effective in detecting the disease.

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91影视!

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

Penicillin 鈥淲ho discovered penicillin: Sean Penn, William Penn, Penn Jillette, Alexander Fleming, or Louis Pasteur?鈥 If you make a random guess for the answer to that question, what is the probability that your answer is the correct answer of Alexander Fleming?

In Exercises 9鈥20, use the data in the following table, which lists drive-thru order accuracy at popular fast food chains (data from a QSR Drive-Thru Study). Assume that orders are randomly selected from those included in the table.

惭肠顿辞苍补濒诲鈥檚

Burger King

奥别苍诲测鈥檚

Taco Bell

Order Accurate

329

264

249

145

OrderNotAccurate

33

54

31

13

Fast Food Drive-Thru Accuracy If one order is selected, find the probability of getting food that is not from 惭肠顿辞苍补濒诲鈥檚.

Composite Water Samples The Fairfield County Department of Public Health tests water for the presence of E. coli (Escherichia coli) bacteria. To reduce laboratory costs, water samples from 10 public swimming areas are combined for one test, and further testing is done only if the combined sample tests positive. Based on past results, there is a 0.005 probability of finding E. coli bacteria in a public swimming area. Find the probability that a combined sample from 10 public swimming areas will reveal the presence of E. coli bacteria. Is that probability low enough so that further testing of the individual samples is rarely necessary?

In Exercises 25鈥32, find the probability and answer the questions.. Guessing Birthdays On their first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year.

a. What is the probability that Mike will guess correctly? (Ignore leap years.)

b. Would it be unlikely for him to guess correctly on his first try?

c. If you were Kelly, and Mike did guess correctly on his first try, would you believe his claim that he made a lucky guess, or would you be convinced that he already knew when you were born?

d. If Kelly asks Mike to guess her age, and Mike鈥檚 guess is too high by 15 years, what is the probability that Mike and Kelly will have a second date?

In Exercises 5鈥36, express all probabilities as fractions.

Mendel鈥檚 Peas Mendel conducted some of his famous experiments with peas that were either smooth yellow plants or wrinkly green plants. If four peas are randomly selected from a batch consisting of four smooth yellow plants and four wrinkly green plants, find the probability that the four selected peas are of the same type.

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.