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In a clinical trial of the effectiveness of echinacea for preventing

colds, the results in the table below were obtained (based on data from 鈥淎n Evaluation of Echinacea Angustifoliain Experimental Rhinovirus Infections,鈥 by Turner et al., NewEngland Journal of Medicine,Vol. 353, No. 4). Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that getting a cold is independent of the treatment group. What do the results suggest about the

effectiveness of echinacea as a prevention against colds?

Treatment Group


Placebo

Echinacea:

20% Extract

Echinacea:

60% Extract

Got a Cold

88

48

42

Did Not Get a Cold

15

4

10

Short Answer

Expert verified

Getting a cold is independent of the treatment group. Thus, Echinacea is not effective to prevent colds.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The data forthe effectiveness of Echinacea for preventing colds is provided.

The level of significance is 0.05.

02

Compute the expected frequencies

Assume that random selections are done for subjects, and each subject is assigned randomly to each group.

Theexpected frequency formulais computed as,

\(E = \frac{{\left( {row\;total} \right)\left( {column\;total} \right)}}{{\left( {grand\;total} \right)}}\)

The row and column total for the observed frequencies is represented as,


Placebo

Echinacea:

20% Extract

Echinacea:

60% Extract

Row Total

Got a Cold

88

48

42

178

Did Not Get a Cold

15

4

10

29

Column Total

103

52

52

207

Theexpected frequency tableis represented as,


Placebo

Echinacea:

20% Extract

Echinacea:

60% Extract

Got a Cold

88.5700

44.7150

44.7150

Did Not Get a Cold

14.4300

7.2850

7.2850

Each expected value is greater than 5.

Thus, the requirements for the test are satisfied.

03

State the null and alternate hypothesis

The hypotheses are stated as:

\({H_0}:\)Getting a cold is independent of the treatment group.

\({H_1}:\)Getting a cold is dependent on the treatment group.

04

Compute the test statistic

The value of the test statistic is computed as,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}{\chi ^2} = \sum {\frac{{{{\left( {O - E} \right)}^2}}}{E}} \\ = \frac{{{{\left( {88 - 88.5700} \right)}^2}}}{{88.5700}} + \frac{{{{\left( {48 - 44.7150} \right)}^2}}}{{44.7150}} + ... + \frac{{{{\left( {10 - 7.2850} \right)}^2}}}{{7.2850}}\\ = 2.925\end{aligned}\)

Therefore, the value of the test statistic is 2.925.

05

Compute the degrees of freedom

The degrees of freedomare computed as,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\left( {r - 1} \right)\left( {c - 1} \right) = \left( {2 - 1} \right)\left( {3 - 1} \right)\\ = 2\end{aligned}\)

Therefore, the degrees of freedom are 2.

06

Compute the critical value

From the chi-square table, the critical value for the row corresponding to 2 degrees of freedom and at 0.05 level of significance 5.991.

Therefore, the critical value is 5.991.

The P-value is obtained as 0.232.

07

State the decision

Since the critical value (5.991) is greater than the value of the test statistic (2.925). In this case, the null hypothesis fails to be rejected.

Therefore, the decision is that null hypothesis is failed to be rejected.

The P-value is obtained as 0.2316.

08

State the conclusion

There issufficient evidence to support the claimthat getting a cold is independent of the treatment group.

Thus, it can be said that Echinacea is not effective to prevent colds.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A case-control (or retrospective) study was conductedto investigate a relationship between the colors of helmets worn by motorcycle drivers andwhether they are injured or killed in a crash. Results are given in the table below (based on datafrom 鈥淢otorcycle Rider Conspicuity and Crash Related Injury: Case-Control Study,鈥 by Wellset al., BMJ USA,Vol. 4). Test the claim that injuries are independent of helmet color. Shouldmotorcycle drivers choose helmets with a particular color? If so, which color appears best?

Color of helmet


Black

White

Yellow/Orange

Red

Blue

Controls (not injured)

491

377

31

170

55

Cases (injured or killed)

213

112

8

70

26

In Exercises 5鈥20, conduct the hypothesis test and provide the test statistic and the P-value and, or critical value, and state the conclusion.

Baseball Player Births In his book Outliers, author Malcolm Gladwell argues that more baseball players have birth dates in the months immediately following July 31, because that was the age cutoff date for nonschool baseball leagues. Here is a sample of frequency counts of months of birth dates of American-born Major League Baseball players starting with January: 387, 329, 366, 344, 336, 313, 313, 503, 421, 434, 398, 371. Using a 0.05 significance level, is there sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that American-born Major League Baseball players are born in different months with the same frequency? Do the sample values appear to support Gladwell鈥檚 claim?

Benford鈥檚 Law. According to Benford鈥檚 law, a variety of different data sets include numbers with leading (first) digits that follow the distribution shown in the table below. In Exercises 21鈥24, test for goodness-of-fit with the distribution described by Benford鈥檚 law.

Leading Digits

Benford's Law: Distributuon of leading digits

1

30.10%

2

17.60%

3

12.50%

4

9.70%

5

7.90%

6

6.70%

7

5.80%

8

5.10%

9

4.60%

Author鈥檚 Computer Files The author recorded the leading digits of the sizes of the electronic document files for the current edition of this book. The leading digits have frequencies of 55, 25, 17, 24, 18, 12, 12, 3, and 4 (corresponding to the leading digits of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, respectively). Using a 0.05 significance level, test for goodness-of-fit with Benford鈥檚 law.

The table below includes results from polygraph (lie detector) experiments conducted by researchers Charles R. Honts (Boise State University) and Gordon H. Barland (Department of Defense Polygraph Institute). In each case, it was known if the subject lied or did not lie, so the table indicates when the polygraph test was correct. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that whether a subject lies is independent of the polygraph test indication. Do the results suggest that polygraphs are effective in distinguishing between truths and lies?

Did the subject Actually Lie?


No (Did Not Lie)

Yes (Lied)

Polygraph test indicates that the subject lied.


15

42

Polygraph test indicates that the subject did not lied.


32

9

Do World War II Bomb Hits Fit a Poisson Distribution? In analyzing hits by V-1 buzz bombs in World War II, South London was subdivided into regions, each with an area of 0.25\(k{m^2}\). Shown below is a table of actual frequencies of hits and the frequencies expected with the Poisson distribution. (The Poisson distribution is described in Section 5-3.) Use the values listed and a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the actual frequencies fit a Poisson distribution. Does the result prove that the data conform to the Poisson distribution?

Number of Bomb Hits

0

1

2

3

4

Actual Number of Regions

229

211

93

35

8

Expected Number of Regions

(from Poisson Distribution)

227.5

211.4

97.9

30.5

8.7

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