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In Exercises 5鈥20, conduct the hypothesis test and provide the test statistic and the P-value and, or critical value, and state the conclusion.

Baseball Player Births In his book Outliers, author Malcolm Gladwell argues that more baseball players have birth dates in the months immediately following July 31, because that was the age cutoff date for nonschool baseball leagues. Here is a sample of frequency counts of months of birth dates of American-born Major League Baseball players starting with January: 387, 329, 366, 344, 336, 313, 313, 503, 421, 434, 398, 371. Using a 0.05 significance level, is there sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that American-born Major League Baseball players are born in different months with the same frequency? Do the sample values appear to support Gladwell鈥檚 claim?

Short Answer

Expert verified

There is enough evidence to conclude thatbaseball players are not born with the same frequency in different months of the year.

Sample data does not support the author鈥檚 claim.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The frequencies of baseball players born in different months are provided.

02

Check the requirements

Let O denote the observed frequencies of the players born in the 12 months.

Jan\(\left( {{O_1}} \right)\)

Feb\(\left( {{O_2}} \right)\)

March\(\left( {{O_3}} \right)\)

April\(\left( {{O_4}} \right)\)

May\(\left( {{O_5}} \right)\)

June\(\left( {{O_6}} \right)\)

387

329

366

344

336

313

July\(\left( {{O_7}} \right)\)

Aug\(\left( {{O_8}} \right)\)

Sep\(\left( {{O_9}} \right)\)

OcT\(\left( {{O_{10}}} \right)\)

Nov\(\left( {{O_{11}}} \right)\)

Dec\(\left( {{O_{12}}} \right)\)

313

503

421

434

398

371

The sum of all observed frequencies is computed below:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}n = 387 + 329 + ...... + 371\\ = 4515\end{aligned}\)

Let E denote the expected frequencies.

It is given that the number of births is expected to occur with equal frequency in all of the 12 months.

The expected frequency for each of the 12 months is the same and is equal to:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}E = \frac{{4515}}{{12}}\\ = 376.25\end{aligned}\)

As the expected value is greater than 5, the requirements for the test are satisfied.

03

State the hypotheses

The null hypothesis for conducting the given test is as follows:

\({H_0}:\)The frequency of baseball players鈥 births is equal in different months of the year.

The alternative hypothesis is as follows:

\({H_a}:\)The frequency of baseball players鈥 births is not equal in different months of the year.

The test is right-tailed.

04

Conduct the test

The table below shows the necessary calculations:

Months

O

E

\(\left( {O - E} \right)\)

\({\left( {O - E} \right)^2}\)

\(\frac{{{{\left( {O - E} \right)}^2}}}{E}\)

January

387

376.25

10.75

115.5625

0.307143

February

329

376.25

-47.25

2232.563

5.933721

March

366

376.25

-10.25

105.0625

0.279236

April

344

376.25

-32.25

1040.063

2.764286

May

336

376.25

-40.25

1620.063

4.305814

June

313

376.25

-63.25

4000.563

10.63272

July

313

376.25

-63.25

4000.563

10.63272

August

503

376.25

126.75

16065.56

42.69917

September

421

376.25

44.75

2002.563

5.322425

October

434

376.25

57.75

3335.063

8.863953

November

398

376.25

21.75

473.0625

1.257309

December

371

376.25

-5.25

27.5625

0.073256

The value of the test statistic is equal to:

\[\begin{aligned}{c}{\chi ^2} = \sum {\frac{{{{\left( {O - E} \right)}^2}}}{E}} \\ = 0.307143 + 5.933721 + ... + 0.073256\\ = 93.07176\end{aligned}\]

Thus,\({\chi ^2} = 93.072\).

Let k be the number of months, which is 12.

The degrees of freedom for\({\chi ^2}\)is computed below:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}df = k - 1\\ = 12 - 1\\ = 11\end{aligned}\)

05

State the decision

The critical value of\({\chi ^2}\)at\(\alpha = 0.05\)with 11 degrees of freedom is equal to 19.675.

The p-value is equal to 0.000.

Since the test statistic value is greater than the critical value and the p-value is less than 0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected.

06

State the conclusion

There is enough evidence to conclude thatbaseball players are not born with the same frequency in different months of the year.

The sample data for verifying the author鈥檚 claim,

August

503

September

421

October

434

November

398

December

371

Total

2127

January

387

February

329

March

366

April

344

May

336

June

313

July

313

Total

2388

The sum is higher in case of births before july 31.

Thus, it does not support the claim of the author.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Questions 6鈥10 refer to the sample data in the following table, which describes the fate of the passengers and crew aboard the Titanic when it sank on April 15, 1912. Assume that the data are a sample from a large population and we want to use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that surviving is independent of whether the person is a man, woman, boy, or girl.


Men

Women

Boys

Girls

Survived

332

318

29

27

Died

1360

104

35

18

Is the hypothesis test left-tailed, right-tailed, or two-tailed?

Forward Grip Reach and Ergonomics When designing cars and aircraft, we must consider the forward grip reach of women. Women have normally distributed forward grip reaches with a mean of 686 mm and a standard deviation of 34 mm (based on anthropometric survey data from Gordon, Churchill, et al.).

a. If a car dashboard is positioned so that it can be reached by 95% of women, what is the shortest forward grip reach that can access the dashboard?

b. If a car dashboard is positioned so that it can be reached by women with a grip reach greater than 650 mm, what percentage of women cannot reach the dashboard? Is that percentage too high?

c. Find the probability that 16 randomly selected women have forward grip reaches with a mean greater than 680 mm. Does this result have any effect on the design?

Do World War II Bomb Hits Fit a Poisson Distribution? In analyzing hits by V-1 buzz bombs in World War II, South London was subdivided into regions, each with an area of 0.25\(k{m^2}\). Shown below is a table of actual frequencies of hits and the frequencies expected with the Poisson distribution. (The Poisson distribution is described in Section 5-3.) Use the values listed and a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the actual frequencies fit a Poisson distribution. Does the result prove that the data conform to the Poisson distribution?

Number of Bomb Hits

0

1

2

3

4

Actual Number of Regions

229

211

93

35

8

Expected Number of Regions

(from Poisson Distribution)

227.5

211.4

97.9

30.5

8.7

Is the hypothesis test described in Exercise 1 right tailed, left-tailed, or two-tailed? Explain your choice.

Critical Thinking: Was Allstate wrong? The Allstate insurance company once issued a press release listing zodiac signs along with the corresponding numbers of automobile crashes, as shown in the first and last columns in the table below. In the original press release, Allstate included comments such as one stating that Virgos are worried and shy, and they were involved in 211,650 accidents, making them the worst offenders. Allstate quickly issued an apology and retraction. In a press release, Allstate included this: 鈥淎strological signs have absolutely no role in how we base coverage and set rates. Rating by astrology would not be actuarially sound.鈥

Analyzing the Results The original Allstate press release did not include the lengths (days) of the different zodiac signs. The preceding table lists those lengths in the third column. A reasonable explanation for the different numbers of crashes is that they should be proportional to the lengths of the zodiac signs. For example, people are born under the Capricorn sign on 29 days out of the 365 days in the year, so they are expected to have 29/365 of the total number of crashes. Use the methods of this chapter to determine whether this appears to explain the results in the table. Write a brief report of your findings.

Zodiac sign

Dates

Length(days)

Crashes

Capricorn

Jan.18-Feb. 15

29

128,005

Aquarius

Feb.16-March 11

24

106,878

Pisces

March 12-April 16

36

172,030

Aries

April 17-May 13

27

112,402

Taurus

May 14-June 19

37

177,503

Gemini

June 20-July 20

31

136,904

Cancer

July21-Aug.9

20

101,539

Leo

Aug.10-Sep.15

37

179,657

Virgo

Sep.16-Oct.30

45

211,650

Libra

Oct.31-Nov 22

23

110,592

Scorpio

Nov. 23-Nov. 28

6

26,833

Ophiuchus

Nov.29-Dec.17

19

83,234

Sagittarius

Dec.18-Jan.17

31

154,477

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