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\(P(\mathrm{R})=0.5, P(\mathrm{S})=0.3,\) and events \(\mathrm{R}\) and \(\mathrm{S}\) are independent. a. Find \(P(\mathrm{R} \text { and } \mathrm{S})\) b. \(\quad\) Find \(P(\mathrm{R} \text { or } \mathrm{S})\) c. Find \(P(\bar{S})\) d. \(\quad\) Find \(P(\mathbf{R} | \mathbf{S})\) e. Find \(P(\mathrm{S} | \mathrm{R})\) f. Are events \(R\) and \(S\) mutually exclusive? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. \(P(R \text { and } S) = 0.15\) b. \(P(R \text { or } S) = 0.65\) c. \(P(\overline{S})= 0.7\) d. \(P(R | S) = 0.5\) e. \(P(S | R) = 0.3\) f. Events R and S are not mutually exclusive.

Step by step solution

01

Find P(R and S)

In this step, we need to calculate the probability that both events R and S occur. Since R and S are independent events, the probability of both happening is the product of their individual probabilities. Thus, \(P(R \cap S) = P(R) \cdot P(S)\) = 0.5 x 0.3 = 0.15.
02

Find P(R or S)

Now we need to find the probability that either event R or event S occurs (or both). This is the union of two events and it is found by adding the probabilities of R and S and subtracting the intersection (since it's counted twice): Thus, \(P(R \cup S) = P(R) + P(S) - P(R \cap S)\) = 0.5 + 0.3 - 0.15 = 0.65.
03

Find P(not S)

Next we find the probability that event S does not occur, which is simply the complement of S. In other words, \(P(\overline{S}) = 1 - P(S) = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7\).
04

Find P(R | S)

This step requires finding the conditional probability of R given that S has occurred. As per the definition, for independent events, the conditional probability is the same as the original probability. So, \(P(R | S) = P(R) = 0.5\).
05

Find P(S | R)

We are now asked to find the conditional probability of S given that R has occurred. Using the same logic as step 4, \(P(S | R) = P(S) = 0.3\).
06

Determine if R and S are mutually exclusive

Lastly, we need to determine if events R and S are mutually exclusive. Two events are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one event excludes the occurrence of the other. In mathematical terms, two events are mutually exclusive if their intersection is 0. From Step 1, we found that \(P(R \cap S) = 0.15\), which is not 0, and so, R and S are not mutually exclusive.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
Understanding the concept of independent events is crucial in probability theory. Independent events are those whose occurrence or non-occurrence does not affect the probability of the occurrence of another event. This means that the outcome of one event has no impact on the outcome of another.

For instance, consider rolling a die and flipping a coin. The result of the coin flip has no bearing on the number that rolls up on the die. In our original exercise, events R and S are stated as independent. Knowing this, we can find the probability of both events occurring by simply multiplying their individual probabilities: \[ P(R \cap S) = P(R) \times P(S) = 0.5 \times 0.3 = 0.15. \]
This multiplication rule only applies to independent events, which is a key feature to remember.
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability refers to the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already occurred. It's a fundamental concept that helps us understand the relationship between two events. To denote conditional probability, we use the notation \( P(A|B) \), which reads as 'the probability of A given B'.

In the context of our original problem, the conditional probability of event R happening given that S has occurred is denoted by \( P(R|S) \). For independent events, such as R and S in our exercise, the conditional probability is equal to the original probability of the event that is being conditioned on. Therefore, \[ P(R|S) = P(R) = 0.5 \] and similarly, \[ P(S|R) = P(S) = 0.3. \]

This indicates that the occurrence of one event does not change the likelihood of the other, reinforcing their independence.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive events are those that cannot occur simultaneously; when one event occurs, it prevents the other from happening. Imagine you're drawing a card from a standard deck; you cannot draw a card that is both a heart and a club at the same time.

To determine if events are mutually exclusive, we check if their intersection (the probability of both events happening together) is zero. That is, \( P(A \cap B) = 0 \). In the exercise, we're asked to evaluate if events R and S are mutually exclusive. Based on the calculation in Step 1 of the solution, we found \( P(R \cap S) = 0.15 \), which is not zero. Therefore, we conclude that R and S are not mutually exclusive since there is a non-zero probability that they can occur together.

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