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Suppose that 50 sites on a patient might contain lesions. A biopsy selects 8 sites randomly (without replacement). What is the minimum number of sites with lesions so that the probability of at least one selected site contains lesions is greater than or equal to \(0.95 ?\) Rework for greater than or equal to \(0.99 .\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
For a probability ≥ 0.95, at least 15 lesion sites are needed. For a probability ≥ 0.99, at least 22 lesion sites are needed.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We have 50 sites, and we randomly select 8 for biopsy. We want to find the minimum number of lesion sites required such that the probability of selecting at least one lesion site is greater than or equal to a specific threshold (either 0.95 or 0.99).
02

Calculating the Complement Probability

The complement of selecting at least one lesion site is selecting none of the lesion sites. Let's denote the total number of lesion sites as \( n \). The probability of not selecting any of these lesion sites is given by the hypergeometric distribution.
03

Setting Up the Probability Equation

The probability of selecting no lesion sites is given by:\[P(\text{No lesion}) = \frac{\binom{50-n}{8}}{\binom{50}{8}}\]We need this probability to be less than or equal to the complement of the given threshold (either 0.05 or 0.01).
04

Solving for Probability ≥ 0.95

We want the complement probability to be less than or equal to 0.05:\[\frac{\binom{50-n}{8}}{\binom{50}{8}} \leq 0.05\]We solve this inequality by trying different values of \( n \).
05

Determining the Minimum Lesion Sites for 0.95

By trial-and-error or systematic calculation, we find that for \( n = 15 \), the probability of selecting no lesion sites is approximately 0.048, which satisfies the condition \( \leq 0.05 \).
06

Solving for Probability ≥ 0.99

Now, we require the complement probability to be less than or equal to 0.01:\[\frac{\binom{50-n}{8}}{\binom{50}{8}} \leq 0.01\]We solve this inequality by testing various values of \( n \).
07

Determining the Minimum Lesion Sites for 0.99

Again, through calculation or by trying different values, we determine that for \( n = 22 \), the probability of selecting no lesions is approximately 0.009, satisfying the condition \( \leq 0.01 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability Theory is a mathematical framework for quantifying the uncertainty and likelihood of various outcomes. It's an essential part of analyzing events, especially when dealing with random selections, like picking biopsy sites in this exercise.
To determine probabilities in scenarios, understanding different distributions is vital. In our example, the Hypergeometric Distribution is used because we're randomly selecting sites without replacement. This specific kind of distribution applies to situations like drawing from a deck of cards without putting them back.
In probability theory, the interest often lies in finding the probability of a certain event happening, like the appearance of lesions in our selected biopsy. By using an equation derived from this theory, we assess the chances and make informed predictions about the medical samples, helping in crucial decision-making.
Binomial Coefficients
Binomial Coefficients are foundational elements of combinatorics, used to determine the number of possible combinations of items. For anyone familiar with binomials, these coefficients represent the number of ways you can pick 'k' items from a set of 'n' items without regard to order. This is written as \( \binom{n}{k} \).
In our biopsy problem, these coefficients help us understand how many different ways we can select biopsy sites from the patient’s total number of sites. For instance, \( \binom{50}{8} \) calculates the number of ways to choose 8 sites out of 50. Understanding this is crucial, as it forms the basis of the probability computations in the exercise.
The concept of binomial coefficients extends far beyond this problem, having applications in algebra, probability, and even computer science, evidencing its versatility and importance.
Complement Rule
The Complement Rule is a basic yet powerful concept in probability. It states that the probability of an event happening is 1 minus the probability of it not happening. Formally, if \( P(A) \) is the probability of event A, then \( P(A') = 1 - P(A) \), where \( P(A') \) is the probability that event A does not occur.
In the context of the biopsy problem, we use the complement rule to focus initially on the opposite event: the probability of selecting zero lesion sites. By calculating this, we can then find the probability of selecting at least one lesion site by subtracting it from 1.
This idea simplifies complex probability calculations and is indispensable when tackling questions where finding the probability of something not happening is easier than finding the probability of it actually occurring.

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