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91Ó°ÊÓ

Babies. Is the gestational age (time between conception and birth) of a low birth-weight baby useful in predicting head circumference at birth? Twenty- five low birth-weight babies were studied at a Harvard teaching hospital; the investigators calculated the regression of head circumference (measured in centimeters) against gestational age (measured in weeks). The estimated regression line is head circumference \(=3.91+0.78 \times\) gestational age (a) What is the predicted head circumference for a baby whose gestational age is 28 weeks? (b) The standard error for the coefficient of gestational age is 0. \(35,\) which is associated with \(d f=23 .\) Does the model provide strong evidence that gestational age is significantly associated with head circumference?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) The predicted head circumference is 25.75 cm. (b) Yes, there is strong evidence of association.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We have a linear regression model predicting head circumference based on gestational age. We need to calculate the predicted head circumference for a given gestational age and test the significance of the association.
02

Calculate Predicted Head Circumference

To find the head circumference for a baby with a gestational age of 28 weeks, substitute 28 into the regression equation: \(\text{head circumference} = 3.91 + 0.78 \times 28\).
03

Perform the Calculation

Perform the arithmetic: \(0.78 \times 28 = 21.84\). Add this to 3.91: \(3.91 + 21.84 = 25.75\). The predicted head circumference is 25.75 cm.
04

Set Up Hypothesis Test for Significance

The null hypothesis is that the slope coefficient is zero: \(H_0: \beta_1 = 0\). The alternative hypothesis is that the slope is not zero: \(H_a: \beta_1 eq 0\).
05

Calculate Test Statistic

Compute the test statistic as \(t = \frac{b_1}{SE(b_1)} = \frac{0.78}{0.35}\).
06

Perform the Calculation

Calculate the test statistic: \(t = 2.229\).
07

Compare with Critical Value

With \(df = 23\), find the critical t-value for a 95% confidence level (two-tailed test). The critical value is approximately 2.069.
08

Make a Decision

Since the calculated \(t\) statistic of 2.229 is greater than the critical t-value of 2.069, we reject the null hypothesis, indicating significant evidence of association.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Linear Regression
Linear regression is a powerful tool in statistics to understand the relationship between two variables. In this exercise, the goal was to predict head circumference based on gestational age using a linear regression model. The regression equation provided is:
  • head circumference = 3.91 + 0.78 × gestational age
This equation comprises two parts:
  • A constant (3.91), representing the expected head circumference when gestational age is 0. This value is often referred to as the intercept.
  • A coefficient (0.78), indicating how much the head circumference is expected to increase for each additional week of gestational age. This is known as the slope of the regression line.
Overall, the model suggests an upward trend where longer gestational age tends to result in a larger head circumference at birth.
Head Circumference
Head circumference at birth is a vital measure in newborns, as it can indicate normal growth or potential health concerns. In this study, it's the outcome variable or dependent variable that researchers are trying to predict. The head circumference is measured in centimeters, providing a quantitative scale for analysis. Measurements like head circumference during the early newborn period may contribute to assessments in pediatrics to ensure the healthy development of infants.
In the context of the given regression model, we calculated the predicted head circumference for a gestational age of 28 weeks, finding it to be 25.75 cm. This prediction helps clinical practitioners and researchers gauge how closely a newborn's measurements align with expected growth patterns.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to determine the likelihood that a given hypothesis about a data sample is true. In this exercise, we applied it to test the significance of the gestational age coefficient in the regression model. We set up the following hypotheses:
  • Null hypothesis ( H_0 ): There is no association between gestational age and head circumference, implying the slope ( β_1 ) is zero.
  • Alternative hypothesis ( H_a ): There is an association, meaning the slope ( β_1 ) is not zero.
The results from hypothesis testing allow us to infer whether our sample findings can be generalized to the larger population. In this case, determining whether changes in gestational age significantly affect head circumference is the core question being tested.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a critical concept in hypothesis testing as it determines whether the observed association in data, such as between gestational age and head circumference, is due to chance or represents a true effect. The calculated test statistic, a t-value of 2.229, was compared against a critical value of 2.069 for a 95% confidence level.
Because the t-value is larger than the critical value, we can reject the null hypothesis, concluding that there is statistically significant evidence supporting an association between gestational age and head circumference. This provides confidence that the results are reliable and not random, justifying further investigation and potential practical application in understanding newborn growth patterns.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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