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Greece has faced a severe economic crisis since the end of \(2009 .\) A Gallup poll surveyed 1,000 randomly sampled Greeks in 2011 and found that \(25 \%\) of them said they would rate their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering". (a) Describe the population parameter of interest. What is the value of the point estimate of this parameter? (b) Check if the conditions required for constructing a confidence interval based on these data are met. (c) Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of Greeks who are "suffering". (d) Without doing any calculations, describe what would happen to the confidence interval if we decided to use a higher confidence level. (e) Without doing any calculations, describe what would happen to the confidence interval if we used a larger sample.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) True proportion of Greeks suffering; 0.25. (b) Conditions are met. (c) [0.2232, 0.2768]. (d) Wider interval. (e) Narrower interval.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Population Parameter

The population parameter of interest is the true proportion of Greeks who were suffering in 2011. This is the proportion of the entire population of Greece that would describe themselves as suffering at the time of the survey.
02

Determine the Point Estimate

The point estimate for the population proportion is the sample proportion. Given in the survey data, 25% of the 1,000 Greeks surveyed said they were suffering. Thus, the point estimate \( \hat{p} = 0.25 \).
03

Check Conditions for Confidence Interval

To construct a confidence interval for a proportion, we need to verify that:\( n\hat{p} \geq 10 \) and \( n(1-\hat{p}) \geq 10 \). Here, \( n = 1000 \) and \( \hat{p} = 0.25 \). Calculate \( n\hat{p} = 1000 \times 0.25 = 250 \) and \( n(1-\hat{p}) = 1000 \times 0.75 = 750 \). Both conditions are satisfied.
04

Construct 95% Confidence Interval

The general formula for a confidence interval for a proportion is \( \hat{p} \pm Z^* \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \), where \( Z^* \) is the critical value from the standard normal distribution corresponding to the desired confidence level. For a 95% confidence interval, \( Z^* \approx 1.96 \). Thus, the interval is: \[ 0.25 \pm 1.96 \times \sqrt{\frac{0.25 \times 0.75}{1000}} \] \[ 0.25 \pm 1.96 \times \sqrt{0.0001875} \] \[ 0.25 \pm 1.96 \times 0.01369 \] \[ 0.25 \pm 0.02682 \] The confidence interval is \([0.2232, 0.2768]\).
05

Describe Effect of Higher Confidence Level

If a higher confidence level is chosen (e.g., 99% instead of 95%), the critical value \( Z^* \) increases, leading to a wider confidence interval. This is because a higher confidence level requires a larger range to ensure it captures the true population parameter.
06

Describe Effect of Larger Sample Size

With a larger sample size, the standard error \( \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \) decreases because the denominator \( n \) increases. This reduction in the standard error results in a narrower confidence interval, assuming the confidence level remains unchanged.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Parameter
Imagine you're interested in knowing the true proportion of a country's population experiencing a particular issue, like Greek citizens suffering during their economic crisis. This is where the term "population parameter" comes in. The population parameter is a statistical measure that describes an entire population. In this case, it's the true proportion of all Greeks who were "suffering" back in 2011.

It's important to note that although the entire population's data isn't available, this parameter helps us understand the collective state of the population. Thus, even if we can't access every individual's response, the population parameter gives us the big picture insight we need for research and decision-making.
Point Estimate
When we can't collect data from everyone in a population, we rely on a **point estimate** from a sample. A point estimate gives us a single best estimate of the population parameter. It's like taking a sneak peek into a movie by watching a preview. It gives you an idea, even though you haven’t seen the whole film.

The point estimate is calculated from a sample, like how 1,000 Greeks were surveyed in our study. Here, the point estimate is the proportion of this sample who said they were suffering, which is 25%. This 25% serves as our best estimate of the percentage of all Greeks who might have felt the same at that time.
By understanding the point estimate from a sample, we glean insights into the broader population, making it an invaluable tool in statistics.
Sample Size
The sample size, represented by the symbol "n", plays a crucial role in the accuracy of statistical findings. It refers to the number of observations or participants included in a study. In our example, the sample size is 1,000 Greeks, a segment representing the larger population.

A larger sample size provides more reliable and stable results because it better approximates the entire population. When the sample size is large enough:
  • There is a better chance of the sample closely resembling the population.
  • Statistical estimates, such as point estimates, are more precise.
  • There's a reduction in the margin of error in confidence intervals.
Understanding sample size is essential when evaluating any study or survey, as it deeply influences the reliability of the conclusions drawn.
Standard Error
Every statistical estimate comes with some uncertainty, and that's where the **standard error** enters the picture. It's like a small cloud of doubt hanging over the sample proportion estimate. The standard error gauges how far the sample statistic, such as our 25% from the survey, is likely to diverge from the true population parameter.

In mathematical terms, the standard error for a proportion is computed using the formula: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \] Where \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, and \( n \) is the sample size. This will give us an idea of the variability or dispersion in our point estimate.
The role of standard error is crucial as it influences the width of the confidence interval. A smaller standard error indicates a more precise estimate, leading to a narrower confidence interval, thereby providing a more accurate reflection of the population parameter.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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As discussed in Exercise 6.10, the General Social Survey reported a sample where about \(61 \%\) of US residents thought marijuana should be made legal. If we wanted to limit the margin of error of a \(95 \%\) confidence interval to \(2 \%\), about how many Americans would we need to survey?

We are interested in estimating the proportion of students at a university who smoke. Out of a random sample of 200 students from this university, 40 students smoke. (a) Calculate a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of students at this university who smoke, and interpret this interval in context. (Reminder: Check conditions.) (b) If we wanted the margin of error to be no larger than \(2 \%\) at a \(95 \%\) confidence level for the proportion of students who smoke, how big of a sample would we need?

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Lymphatic filariasis is a disease caused by a parasitic worm. Complications of the disease can lead to extreme swelling and other complications. Here we consider results from a randomized experiment that compared three different drug treatment options to clear people of the this parasite, which people are working to eliminate entirely. The results for the second year of the study are given below: $$ \begin{array}{lcc} \hline & \text { Clear at Year 2 } & \text { Not Clear at Year 2 } \\ \hline \text { Three drugs } & 52 & 2 \\ \text { Two drugs } & 31 & 24 \\ \text { Two drugs annually } & 42 & 14 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) Set up hypotheses for evaluating whether there is any difference in the performance of the treatments, and also check conditions. (b) Statistical software was used to run a chi-square test, which output: $$ X^{2}=23.7 \quad d f=2 \quad \text { p-value }=7.2 \mathrm{e}-6 $$ Use these results to evaluate the hypotheses from part (a), and provide a conclusion in the context of the problem.

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