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The General Social Survey asked the question: "After an average work day, about how many hours do you have to relax or pursue activities that you enjoy?" to a random sample of 1,155 Americans. \(^{26}\) A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean number of hours spent relaxing or pursuing activities they enjoy was (1.38,1.92) (a) Interpret this interval in context of the data. (b) Suppose another set of researchers reported a confidence interval with a larger margin of error based on the same sample of 1,155 Americans. How does their confidence level compare to the confidence level of the interval stated above? (c) Suppose next year a new survey asking the same question is conducted, and this time the sample size is 2,500 . Assuming that the population characteristics, with respect to how much time people spend relaxing after work, have not changed much within a year. How will the margin of error of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval constructed based on data from the new survey compare to the margin of error of the interval stated above?

Short Answer

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(a) We are 95% confident the average is between 1.38 and 1.92 hours. (b) Their confidence level is higher than 95%. (c) The margin of error will be smaller.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Confidence Interval

In part (a), the given interval (1.38, 1.92) means that we are 95% confident that the true average number of hours Americans have to relax or pursue activities after an average workday lies between 1.38 and 1.92 hours.
02

Relating Margin of Error to Confidence Level

For part (b), if a margin of error is larger, it implies that the confidence interval is wider. To achieve a wider interval with the same sample size, the confidence level must be higher. Therefore, the other researchers likely used a confidence level greater than 95%.
03

Effect of Increasing Sample Size on Margin of Error

In part (c), increasing the sample size in a survey reduces the margin of error. Thus, a sample size of 2,500 compared to 1,155 will have a smaller margin of error, assuming other survey conditions remain the same.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Margin of Error
The margin of error is an important aspect of understanding confidence intervals. It reflects how much the sample result might differ from the true population parameter. Essentially, it provides a range of uncertainty around the sample statistic. It is represented by half the width of the confidence interval. For the interval (1.38, 1.92), the margin of error is calculated as:\[\text{Margin of Error} = \frac{1.92 - 1.38}{2} = 0.27\]This implies that the estimated average relaxation time might differ by up to 0.27 hours from the true population value.
Understanding the margin of error is critical because it influences how precise or reliable our estimates are. A larger margin of error indicates less precision, meaning that the estimate could be further away from the actual population parameter. On the other hand, a smaller margin of error suggests more confidence in the closeness of our estimate to the actual value. Always remember, the margin of error gives us the scope of possible deviation while maintaining the stated confidence level.
Sample Size
The sample size significantly impacts the margin of error and the confidence interval's precision. When we talk about survey samples, a larger sample size tends to give more accurate estimates of the population parameters.
Having a sample size of 1,155 provides a certain level of confidence and precision in the results. If the sample size were increased to 2,500, the margin of error would naturally decrease. This is because larger samples tend to capture more information about the population, reducing uncertainty. Let's simplify this: with a larger number of observations, the variability within the data tends to average out, resulting in tighter (narrower) confidence intervals. Keeping other factors constant, like the confidence level, increasing the sample size is one of the most effective strategies for improving the reliability and precision of survey results.
Confidence Level
The confidence level is a key concept in the world of statistics, especially when constructing confidence intervals. It represents the probability that the interval calculated from the sample data contains the true population parameter. Generally expressed as a percentage, common confidence levels include 90%, 95%, and 99%.
A 95% confidence interval, like in the exercise, implies that if we were to take 100 different samples and construct a confidence interval from each, we would expect about 95 of these intervals to contain the true mean relaxation time for Americans. Higher confidence levels, such as 99%, would result in wider intervals because they require more certainty (i.e., they capture a larger range of possible values). This trade-off for greater certainty is a broader margin of error. Keep this in mind: as the confidence level increases, so does the margin of error, making the intervals wider. Overall, understanding these nuances helps in interpreting statistical data better, enabling more informed decisions based on survey findings.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A study suggests that \(60 \%\) of college student spend 10 or more hours per week communicating with others online. You believe that this is incorrect and decide to collect your own sample for a hypothesis test. You randomly sample 160 students from your dorm and find that \(70 \%\) spent 10 or more hours a week communicating with others online. A friend of yours, who offers to help you with the hypothesis test, comes up with the following set of hypotheses. Indicate any errors you see. $$ \begin{array}{l} H_{0}: \hat{p}<0.6 \\ H_{A}: \hat{p}>0.7 \end{array} $$

A patient named Diana was diagnosed with Fibromyalgia, a long-term syndrome of body pain, and was prescribed anti-depressants. Being the skeptic that she is, Diana didn't initially believe that anti-depressants would help her symptoms. However after a couple months of being on the medication she decides that the anti-depressants are working, because she feels like her symptoms are in fact getting better. (a) Write the hypotheses in words for Diana's skeptical position when she started taking the anti-depressants. (b) What is a Type 1 Error in this context? (c) What is a Type 2 Error in this context?

In 2013, the Pew Research Foundation reported that " \(45 \%\) of U.S. adults report that they live with one or more chronic conditions". \(^{12}\) However, this value was based on a sample, so it may not be a perfect estimate for the population parameter of interest on its own. The study reported a standard error of about \(1.2 \%\), and a normal model may reasonably be used in this setting. Create a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults who live with one or more chronic conditions. Also interpret the confidence interval in the context of the study.

A study suggests that the \(25 \%\) of 25 year olds have gotten married. You believe that this is incorrect and decide to collect your own sample for a hypothesis test. From a random sample of 25 year olds in census data with size 776 , you find that \(24 \%\) of them are married. A friend of yours offers to help you with setting up the hypothesis test and comes up with the following hypotheses. Indicate any errors you see. $$ \begin{array}{l} H_{0}: \hat{p}=0.24 \\ H_{A}: \hat{p} \neq 0.24 \end{array} $$

Suppose you conduct a hypothesis test based on a sample where the sample size is \(n=50,\) and arrive at a p-value of 0.08 . You then refer back to your notes and discover that you made a careless mistake, the sample size should have been \(n=500\). Will your p-value increase, decrease, or stay the same? Explain.

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