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Each of nboys andngirls, independently and randomly, chooses a member of the other sex. If a boy and girl choose each other, they become a couple. Number the girls, and let Gibe the event that girl number iis part of a couple. Let P0=1-P∪i=1nGibe the probability that no couples are formed.

(a) What is PGi?

(b) What is PGi∣Gj?

(c) When nis large, approximate P0.

(d) When nis large, approximate Pk, the probability that exactly kcouples are formed.

(e) Use the inclusion-exclusion identity to evaluate P0.

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) PGi=1n

(b) PGi∣Gj=1n-1

(c) P0≈P(X=0)=e-1

(d) Pk≈P(X=k)=1kk!e-1=1k!·e

(e)P0=1-1-12+13!-14!+⋯+(-1)n+1n!

Step by step solution

01

Step 1:Given information

Each of nboys andngirls, independently and randomly, chooses a member of the other sex. If a boy and girl choose each other, they become a couple. Number the girls, and let Gibe the event that girl number iis part of a couple. Let P0=1-P∪i=1nGibe the probability that no couples are formed.

02

Step 2:Explanation

We have that,

PGi=∑k=1nPGi∣ith girl chooses kth boy )P(ith girl chooses kth boy )

=∑k=1n1n·1n=n·1n2=1n

We know thatPGi∣ith girl chooses kth boy )=1nsince if ithgirl chooses kth boy )=1nsince if ithgirl chooses kthboy, they will become a couple if any only if kthboy has chosen ithgirl and probability for that is1/n.

03

Step 3:Final answer

PGi=1n

04

Step 4:Given information(part b)

Each of n boys and n girls, independently and randomly, chooses a member of the other sex. If a boy and girl choose each other, they become a couple. Number the girls, and letGi be the event that girl number i is part of a couple. Let P0=1-P∪i=1nGi be the probability that no couples are formed.

05

Explanation

If we are given that jgirl is in a couple with some boy, we can exclude them from the story. So, we remain with n-1boys and n-1girls. Here we can repeat the story from part (a), so the required probability is

PGi∣Gj=1n-1

06

Step 6:Final answer

The required probability is

PGi∣Gj=1n-1

07

Given information(part c)

Each of nboys and n girls, independently and randomly, chooses a member of the other sex. If a boy and girl choose each other, they become a couple. Number the girls, and letGi be the event that girl number iis part of a couple. Let P0=1−P(∪ni=1Gi) be the probability that no couples are formed.

08

Step 8:Explanation

Define random variable Xthat counts how many of events Giare active. The average number of active events is 1 since we have that each of Giis active with the probability 1/n. So, we can approximate X~Pois (1). Hence

P0≈P(X=0)=e-1

09

Final answer

P0≈P(X=0)=e-1

10

Given information(part d)

Each of nboys and ngirls, independently and randomly, chooses a member of the other sex. If a boy and girl choose each other, they become a couple. Number the girls, and let Gi be the event that girl numberiis part of a couple. LetP0=1−P(∪ni=1Gi)be the probability that no couples are formed.

11

Explanation

Using the same notation and idea from part (c), we get

Pk≈P(X=k)=1kk!e-1=1k!·e

12

Step 12:Final answer

Pk≈P(X=k)=1kk!e-1=1k!·e

13

Step 13:Given information(part e)

Each of nboys and n girls, independently and randomly, chooses a member of the other sex. If a boy and girl choose each other, they become a couple. Number the girls, and letGi be the event that girl number i is part of a couple. Let P0=1−P(∪ni=1Gi) be the probability that no couples are formed.

14

Step 14:Explanation

Use inclusion-exclusion formula to obtain that

P∪i=1nGi=∑i1PGi1-∑i1<i2PGi1,Gi2+⋯+(-1)k+1

∑i1<i2<⋯<ikPGi1,Gi2,…,Gik+⋯+(-1)n+1PG1,G2,…,Gn

=n·PG1-n2PG1,G2+n3PG1,G2,G3

-⋯+(-1)n+1PG1,G2,…,Gn

=n·1n-n(n-1)2·1n(n-1)+n(n-1)(n-2)3!·1n(n-1)(n-2)-…

=1-12+13!-14!+⋯+(-1)n+1n!

The probability $P\left(G_{i_{1}}, G_{i_{2}}, \ldots, G_{i_{k}}\right)$ can be obtained using the similar argument as in part (b). Finally, we have that

P0=1-1-12+13!-14!+⋯+(-1)n+1n!

15

Step 15:Final answer

P0=1-1-12+13!-14!+⋯+(-1)n+1n!

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