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In Problem 4.15, let team number 1be the team with the worst record, let team number 2be the team with the second-worst record, and so on. Let Yidenote the team that gets the draft pick number i. (Thus, Y1=3if the first ball chosen belongs to team number 3.) Find the probability mass function of

(a) Y1

(b) Y2

(c)Y3.

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a)12-i66

(b)ji12-i54+j12-j66

(c)kjji1142+k+j12-k54+j12-i66

Step by step solution

01

Given information Part (a)  

It is given that 66balls placed in an urn such that 11 have the name of the team with the worst record, 10have the name of the team with the 2ndworst record, and so on; finally, we have 1ball with the 11thworst record.

That means, we have the balls in the following pattern.

TeamNumber of balls111(=12-1)210(=12-2)i12-i111(=12-11)

Thus, team iconsists of 12-iballs.

02

Explanation Part (a)  

Find the probability mass function of Y1.

Let Yidenote the team that gets the draft pick number i. That means Yidenotes the event of choosing team i.

From the given, we have 12-iballs for the team i.

If we choose a team 1, then i=1

Therefore, the probability mass function of Y1is PY1=i=12-i66

03

Given information Part (b)  

It is given that 66 balls are placed in an urn such that 11 have the name of the team with the worst record, 10 have the name of the team with the 2ndworst record, and so on; finally, we have 1a ball with the 11thworst record.

That means, we have the balls in the following pattern.

TeamNumber of balls111(=12-1)210(=12-2)i12-i111(=12-11)

Thus, the team i consists of12-iballs.

04

Explanation Part (b)  

Find the probability mass function of Y2.

In the 2nddraft pick Y2=i, we have to select a team other than the team selected in the first draft pick.

That means, if we pick a team iin the 1stdraft pick, then the 2nddraft pick is made from the remaining balls 66-(12-j)(as we have (12-i)balls in the name of team i).

Thus, the probability of second draft pick is given as

PY2=i=jiPY2=2Y1=i

=jiPY2=2teamichosen firstP(teamichosen first)

=ji12-i66-(12-j)12-j66

=ji12-i54+j12-j66

Therefore, the probability mass function ofY2isPY2=i=ji12-i54+j12-j66

05

Given information Part (c)  

It is given that 66balls are placed in an urn such that 11have the name of the team with the worst record, 10have the name of the team with the 2ndworst record, and so on; finally, we have 1 a ball with the 11thworst record.

That means, we have the balls in the following pattern.

TeamNumber of balls111(=12-1)210(=12-2)i12-i111(=12-11)

Thus, the team iconsists of 12-iballs.

06

Explanation Part (c)  

Find the probability mass function of Y3.

In the 3rddraft pick Y3=i, we have to select a team other than the teams selected in the first two draft picks.

That means, if we pick a team iin the 1stdraft pick and a team jin the 2nddraft pick, then the 3rddraft pick is made from the remaining balls 66-(12-k)-(12-j)(as we have (12-i)balls in the name of team iand (12-j)balls in the name of team j).

Thus, the probability of third draft pick is given as

PY3=i=kjjiPY3=i,Y1=j,Y2=k

PY3=i=kjjiPY3=i,Y1=j,Y2=k

=kjjiP{X=3}teamjchosen2nd&teamichosen1stPteamjchosen2ndteamichosen1stP(teamichosen first)

=kjji1166-(12-k)-(12-j)12-k66-(12-j)12-j66

=kjji1142+k+j12-k54+j12-i66

Therefore, the probability mass function of Y3is

PY3=i=kjji1142+k+j12-k54+j12-i66

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