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The monthly worldwide average number of airplane crashes of commercial airlines is 3.5.What is the probability that there will be

(a) at least 2such accidents in the next month;

(b) at most1accidents in the next month?

Explain your reasoning!

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability that there will be at least 2such accidents in the next month is0.864.

The probability that will be at most 1accidents in the next month is0.1359.

Step by step solution

01

Given Information (Part-a)

Given in the question that the probability there will be at least 2such accidents in the next month . The monthly worldwide average number of airplane crashes of commercial airlines can be approximated by Poisson distribution as it is a rare event.

Given λ=3.5

02

Solution of the Problem (Part-b)

At least 2accidents ⇒2or more accidents

⇒1-P[X≤1]

=1-e-35(3.5)00!+(3.5)1e-351!

=1-[0.0302+0.1057]

We get,

=0.864

03

Final Answer (Part-a)

The probability that there will be at least 2such accidents in the next month is0.864.

04

Given Information (Part-b)

Given in the question that the probability that will be at most 1accidents in the next month. The monthly worldwide average number of airplane crashes of commercial airlines can be approximated by Poisson distribution as it is a rare event.

Givenλ=3.5

05

Solution of the Problem (Part-b)

At most 1 accident =0or 1accident

=P(X=0)+P(X=1)

=e-3.5+3.5e-3.5

We get,

=0.1359

06

Final Answer (Part-b)

The probability that will be at most1accidents in the next month is0.1359.

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