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The suicide rate in a certain state is 1 suicide per 100,000 inhabitants per month.

(a) Find the probability that in a city of 400,000 inhabitants within this state, there will be 8 or more suicides in a given month.

(b) What is the probability that there will be at least 2 months during the year that will have 8 or more suicides?

(c) Counting the present month as month number 1, what is the probability that the first month to have 8 or more suicides will be month number i,i1? What assumptions are you making?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a)The probability that in a city of 400,000inhabitants within this state, there will be 8or more suicides in a given month is 0.05113.

(b)The probability that there will be at least 2months during the year that will have 8or more suicides islocalid="1646896220319" 0.125.

(c)The probability that the first month to have 8 or more suicides will be month number i,i1is localid="1646896387558" P(Z=i)=(1-p)i-1p

Step by step solution

01

Given Information (Part a)

The suicide rate in a certain state is 1 suicide per 100,000 inhabitants per month.

02

Calculation (Part a)

Since we are given that there is a rate of 1suicide per 100,000inhabitants, we hold that there is the rate of 4suicides per 400,000inhabitants. So, the number of suicides is can be expressed as a random variable Xwith allocation X~Pois(4).

So,

P(X8)=1-j=07P(X=j)=1-j=074jj!e-40.05113

03

Final answer (Part a)

The probability of given city found to be0.05113.

04

Given information (Part b)

The suicide rate in a certain state is 1suicide per 100,000inhabitants per month.

05

 Step 5: Calculation (Part b)

Every month has the probability of p=0.05113that there will be more or similar to eight suicides that month. If we mark Yas the random variable that marks the number of months that have that property, it has approximately Poisson distribution with parameter 120.05113=0.61.

Hence

P(Y2)=1-P(Y=0)-P(Y=1)=1-e-0.61-0.61e-0.610.125

06

Final answer(Part b)

The probability of suicides found to be0.125.

07

Given information (Part c)

The suicide rate in a certain state is 1 suicide per 100,000 inhabitants per month.

08

Calculation (Part c)

Define random variable Zthat marks the first month in which there were 8or more suicides. Observe that because of the nature of the problem, We have that Z~Geom(p), where pis the probability calculated in (a).

So,

P(Z=i)=(1-p)i-1p

09

Final answer (Part c)

The assumption of probability found to beP(Z=i)=(1-p)i-1p

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