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Individuals 1through n,n > 1, are to be recruited into a 铿乺m in the following manner: Individual 1starts the 铿乺m and recruits individual 2. Individuals 1and 2will then compete to recruit individual 3. Once individual 3is recruited, individuals 1,2, and 3will compete to recruit individual 4, and so on. Suppose that when individuals 1,2,...,i compete to recruit individual i + 1, each of them is equally likely to be the successful recruiter.

(a) Find the expected number of the individuals 1,...,n who did not recruit anyone else.

(b) Derive an expression for the variance of the number of individuals who did not recruit anyone else, and evaluate it for n=5.

Short Answer

Expert verified

From the information,

a) The expected number of the individuals 1,...,n who did not recruit anyone else is =(i1)(n1)(n1)2

b) An expression for the variance of the number of individuals who did not recruit anyone else is

Var(i=1nXi)=1(n1)2i=1n(i1)(ni)1(n2)(n1)2i=1n1(i1)(ni)(ni1)

Step by step solution

01

GIven Information (part a)

Find the expected number of the individuals 1...,n who did not recruit anyone else.

02

Explanation (part a)

Let Xi=1If individual i don't recruit anyone

=0otherwise

E[Xi]=P{idoesn't recruit any ofi+1,i+2,n}

=(i1i)(ii+1)(n2n1)

E[Xi]=i1n1

E[i=1nXi]=i=1n(i1)(n1)

=n2

Var(Xi)=(i1)(n1)[1(i1)(n1)]

=(i1)(n1)(n1)2

03

Final Answer (part a)

Find the expected number of the individuals 1...,n who did not recruit anyone else is=(i1)(n1)(n1)2

04

Given Information (part b)

Derive an expression for the variance of the number of individuals who did not recruit anyone else, and evaluate it for n=5.

05

Explanation (part b)

Fori<j,E[XiXj]=i1ij2j1j2jj1j+1,+n3n1

=(i1)(j2)(n2)(n1)

Cov[Xi,Xj]=(i1)(j2)(n2)(n1)(i1)(j1)(n1)(n1)

=(i1)(jn)(n2)(n1)2

Var(i=1nXi)=i=1nVar(Xi)+2i=1n1j=i+1nCov(Xi,Xj)

=i=1n(i1)(ni)(n1)2+2i=1n1j=i+1n(i1)(jn)(n2)(n1)2

Var(i=1nXi)=1(n1)2i=1n(i1)(ni)1(n2)(n1)2i=1n1(i1)(ni)(ni1)

06

Final Answer(part b)

Derive an expression for the variance of the numberof individuals who did not recruit anyone else is

Var(i=1nXi)=1(n1)2i=1n(i1)(ni)1(n2)(n1)2i=1n1(i1)(ni)(ni1)

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