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The number of years that a washing machine functions is a random variable whose hazard rate function is given by

(t)=.2鈥呪赌呪赌呪赌0<t<2.2+.3(t2)鈥呪赌呪赌呪赌2t<51.1鈥呪赌呪赌呪赌t>5

(a)What is the probability that the machine will still be working 6years after being purchased?

(b) If it is still working 6years after being purchased, what is the conditional probability that it will fail within the next

2years?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(A) The probability of machine when it is working 6years after purchased is P(X>6)=e3.450.0317

(B) The conditional probability that it will fail within the next 6yearsP(X>8)=e5.650.003517

Step by step solution

01

Step :1 A random variables 

Create a random variable. The number Xrepresents the machine's lifetime. It is assumed that the provided hazard function defines X.

We'll use the relationship between the hazard rate and the cumulative function provided by

F(t)=1exp0t(s)ds

02

Step : 2 The probability that the machine will still be working 6 years after being purchased (part a)

The task at hand is to locate P(X>6). We can deduce from the above link that

P(X>6)=1P(X6)=1F(6)=exp06(s)ds

Let's calculate 06(s)ds. We have that

06(s)ds=020.2ds+25(0.2+0.3(s2))ds+561.1ds

=0.4+1.95+1.1=3.45

So we have that

P(X>6)=e3.450.0317

03

Step :3 Conditional probability  (part b)

We are required to find P(X8X>6).. It is equal to

P(X8X>6)=P(6<X<8)P(X>6)

The probability in the denominator is equal to

Probability P(X>8) is calculated similarly as in (a). We have that

08(s)ds=020.2ds+25(0.2+0.3(s2))ds+581.1ds

=0.4+1.95+3.3=5.65

So,

P(X>8)=e5.650.003517

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