/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 21 A classmate offers to play the f... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

A classmate offers to play the following game: He will roll a 10 -sided die; if it comes up between 1 and \(9,\) he will pay you \(\$ 10 ;\) if it comes up a \(10,\) he will pay you \(\$ 110 .\) a. If you are risk-neutral, and base all decisions on expected monetary value, what is the most you will pay to play this game? b. Your classmate Risa has a utility function that depends on wealth. Specifically, \(U=W^{2}\) If Risa bases her decisions on expected utility, what is the most she would pay to play this game? What can you ascertain about Risa's attitude toward risk?

Short Answer

Expert verified
A risk-neutral player will pay $20; Risa will pay $0, indicating risk aversion.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Expected Monetary Value for a Risk-Neutral Player

To find out the most a risk-neutral person will pay, we calculate the expected monetary value of the game. This involves finding the probability of each outcome and multiplying it by its respective monetary gains, and then finding the sum of these values. The die can land on any number from 1 to 10. Therefore, there are 9 outcomes where the die lands on numbers 1 to 9, and 1 outcome where it lands on 10.1. Probability of rolling 1 to 9: \[ \text{Probability} = \frac{9}{10} \]2. Probability of rolling 10: \[ \text{Probability} = \frac{1}{10} \]Calculate the expected monetary value:\[ \text{EMV} = \left( \frac{9}{10} \times 10 \right) + \left( \frac{1}{10} \times 110 \right) \]\[ \text{EMV} = 9 + 11 = 20 \]Thus, the most a risk-neutral player would pay to play the game is $20.
02

Analyze Risa's Utility from the Game

To determine Risa's maximum payment, we need to consider her utility function, which is given by \( U = W^2 \). Her decision is based on expected utility rather than expected monetary value.Suppose she pays \( X \) to play the game. Her wealth after the payment is \( W - X \).For rolling numbers 1 to 9, her wealth becomes \( W - X + 10 \) with probability \( \frac{9}{10} \), and for rolling 10, her wealth becomes \( W - X + 110 \) with probability \( \frac{1}{10} \).Calculate the expected utility:\[ EU = \left( \frac{9}{10} \times (W - X + 10)^2 \right) + \left( \frac{1}{10} \times (W - X + 110)^2 \right) \]
03

Solve for Maximum Payment for Risa

Determine the maximum \( X \) such that Risa's expected utility from playing the game equals her current utility, \( W^2 \).\[ (W - X + 10)^2 = W^2 \]\[ (W - X + 110)^2 = W^2 \]Solving these equations for \( X \) requires setting up the inequality so that Risa's expected utility matches the utility without the game (i.e., \( W^2 \)), which would yield:Upon simplification, her maximum payment can be solved numerically to ensure: \[ X = 0 \] This means Risa is only willing to play if it doesn't cost her anything, indicating she is risk-averse or indifferent.

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91Ó°ÊÓ!

Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Risk-Neutral Decisions
Risk-neutral decisions are made when a decision-maker is indifferent to risk. They focus solely on the expected monetary value (EMV) of an outcome, without considering any potential variability in the outcomes.
  • This approach assumes the decision-maker values all outcomes based merely on their monetary value.
  • For a risk-neutral person, the gamble's attractiveness hinges on whether its EMV exceeds its cost.
In the context of the dice game, a risk-neutral player computes the expected payoff by multiplying each outcome by its probability. If the EMV of playing is higher than the entry cost, a risk-neutral player will choose to play. In this case, the calculation showed an EMV of $20. Therefore, a risk-neutral individual would not pay more than $20 to participate in the game.
Utility Function
A utility function is a mathematical representation that measures satisfaction or utility derived from different levels of wealth. In economics, utility functions help explain how an individual's choices relate to their preferences.
  • Utility functions often reflect the satisfaction an individual gains from certain income or wealth levels.
  • They are used to determine decisions based on expected utility rather than pure monetary gain.
For instance, Risa's utility function, given as \( U = W^2 \), implies that her utility increases quadratically with wealth. Thus, her satisfaction grows at an increasing rate with each additional dollar earned. When Risa makes decisions, she will maximize her expected utility rather than expected monetary outcomes.
Risk Aversion
Risk aversion describes a situation where decision-makers prefer to avoid risk and uncertainty, preferring stable outcomes over those with potentially higher but uncertain returns.
  • Risk-averse individuals value security and certainty more than potential but risky gains.
  • They typically require compensation for taking on additional risk.
In the dice game, Risa's behavior illustrates her risk aversion. Although the expected monetary gain from playing is positive, her concern lies in the variability of outcomes. Given her utility function \( U = W^2 \), Risa prefers the certainty of her current wealth over the uncertain benefits of participating in the game. This concern for variability means that the most she would pay is $0, supporting her risk-averse nature.
Expected Monetary Value
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is an essential concept in decision theory that calculates the anticipated value of an uncertain event by weighing possible outcomes by their probabilities.
  • It provides a single figure to represent the average result of different probabilities and payoffs.
  • EMV helps in making objective decisions based on profitability or cost effectiveness.
In the presented game, computing the EMV involves multiplying the payout of each dice roll by its probability of occurring and summing these products. As shown, the probabilities are \( \frac{9}{10} \) for rolling 1-9 and \( \frac{1}{10} \) for rolling 10. The resulting EMV is $20, which guides a risk-neutral player in deciding how much to pay for a chance to play the game.

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

Many college graduates feel as if their student loan payments drag on forever. Suppose that the government offers the following arrangement: It will pay for your college in its entirety, and in return you will make annual payments until the end of time. a. Suppose the government asks for \(\$ 6,000\) each year for all of eternity. If interest rates currently sit at \(4 \%,\) what is the present value of the payments you will make? b. Your college charges \(\$ 140,000\) for four years of quality education. Should you take the government up on its offer to pay for your college? What if your college charges \(\$ 160,000 ?\)

Evie is a 20 -year-old social media influencer who earns lots of income from her YouTube channel. She brags to her friends, "I'm going to be a millionaire by the time I'm \(40, "\) but seems to spend money as fast as it comes in. a. If interest rates are currently \(9 \%\), how much should Evie set aside today to guarantee her millionaire status by \(40 ?\) b. How much should Evie set aside if she decides she wants to reach millionaire status by 30 instead of \(40 ?\) c. Does the amount Evie must set aside double when she decides she needs to achieve millionaire status twice as quickly?

You are considering the purchase of an old fire station, which you plan to convert to an indoor playground. The fire station can be purchased for \(\$ 200,000\), and the playground will generate lifetime profits (excluding the cost of the building) of \(\$ 700,000\). (Assume that those profits are all realized one year after opening.) However, there is a \(20 \%\) chance that the city council will rezone the district to exclude establishments such as yours; a hearing is scheduled for the coming year, and if your building is rezoned, your profit will be zero. Assume that there is no other building currently under consideration. a. Assume an interest rate of \(10 \% .\) Calculate the net present value of opening the playground today. Note that the cost of purchasing the building today is certain, but the benefits are uncertain. b. Calculate the net present value today of opening the playground in one year, after the zoning issues have been decided. Note that the benefits of opening the playground are uncertain today, but will be certain in one year. c. Based on your answers to (a) and (b), should you open the playground today, or should you wait until the zoning commission reaches its decision?

You have \(\$ 832.66\) in a savings account that offers a \(5.25 \%\) interest rate. a. If you leave your money in that account for 20 years, how much will you have in the account? b. Suppose that inflation is expected to run at \(3.25 \%\) for the next 20 years. Use the real interest rate to calculate the inflation-adjusted amount your account will contain at the end of the 20 -year period. c. The amount you calculated in (b) is smaller than the amount you calculated in (a). Explain exactly what the amount you calculated in (b) tells you, and why the difference arises.

Imagine that you have \(\$ 100\) of ill-gotten gains stashed in an offshore bank account. Lest the IRS get too nosey, you plan to leave that account idle until your retirement in 45 years. a. If your bank pays you \(3 \%\) annual interest, what will your account balance be upon retirement? b. If your bank pays you \(6 \%\) interest, what will your account balance be upon retirement? c. Does doubling the interest rate double your accumulated balance at retirement? More than double it? Less? Explain your answer.

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Economics Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.