/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 22 Tree-ring dating from archaeolog... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

Tree-ring dating from archaeological excavation sites is used in conjunction with other chronologic evidence to estimate occupation dates of prehistoric Indian ruins in the southwestern United States. It is thought that Burnt Mesa Pueblo was occupied around 1300 A.D. (based on evidence from potsherds and stone tools). The following data give tree-ring dates (A.D.) from adjacent archaeological sites (Bandelier Archaeological Excavation Project: Summer 1990 Excavations at Burnt Mesa Pueblo, edited by T. Kohler, Washington State University Department of Anthropology): $$\begin{aligned} &\begin{array}{ccccc} 1189 & 1267 & 1268 & 1275 & 1275 \end{array}\\\ &1271 \quad 1272 \quad 1316 \quad 1317 \quad1230 \end{aligned}$$ i. Use a calculator with mean and standard deviation keys to verify that \(\bar{x}=1268\) and \(s \approx 37.29\) years. ii. Assuming the tree-ring dates in this excavation area follow a distribution that is approximately normal, does this information indicate that the population mean of tree-ring dates in the area is different from (either higher or lower than) that in 1300 A.D.? Use a \(1 \%\) level of significance.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The test leads to failing to reject the null hypothesis, suggesting no significant evidence that the mean date differs from 1300 A.D.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Mean

The mean of a set of numbers is the sum of all the values divided by the count of the values. First, sum all the given tree-ring dates, then divide by the total number of dates.\[ \bar{x} = \frac{1189 + 1267 + 1268 + 1275 + 1275 + 1271 + 1272 + 1316 + 1317 + 1230}{10} = 1268 \] which matches the provided mean.
02

Calculate the Standard Deviation

Standard deviation measures the amount of variation in the dataset. The formula is: \( s = \sqrt{\frac{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2}{n-1}} \). Calculate the deviation of each datum from the mean, square it, sum those squares, divide by \( n-1 \), and take the square root. This gives \( s \approx 37.29 \), verifying the given standard deviation.
03

Set Up the Hypotheses

We want to test whether the mean tree-ring date is significantly different from 1300 A.D. The null hypothesis is \( H_0: \mu = 1300 \) and the alternative hypothesis is \( H_a: \mu eq 1300 \). This is a two-tailed test at a \(1\%\) significance level.
04

Calculate the Test Statistic

Use the formula for the t-test statistic: \[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{s/\sqrt{n}} \] where \( \bar{x} = 1268 \), \( \mu = 1300 \), \( s = 37.29 \), and \( n = 10 \). \[ t = \frac{1268 - 1300}{37.29/\sqrt{10}} = \frac{-32}{11.79} \approx -2.71 \]
05

Determine the Critical Value

For a two-tailed test with \( n - 1 = 9 \) degrees of freedom at a \(1\%\) significance level, the critical t-value is approximately \( \pm 3.250 \). You would reject the null hypothesis if the test statistic falls beyond the critical values.
06

Make a Decision

Since the calculated \( t \approx -2.71 \) does not fall outside the range \([-3.250, 3.250]\), we fail to reject the null hypothesis at the \(1\%\) significance level. This suggests there is not enough evidence to conclude that the mean tree-ring date is different from 1300 A.D.

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91Ó°ÊÓ!

Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean Calculation
The calculation of the mean is an essential step in summarizing a dataset. It provides a central value that represents all the data points. To find the mean, also known as the average, you add up all the values in the set and then divide by the total number of values. In the case of the tree-ring dates given in the problem, the sum of the years is 12,680, and there are 10 values. So, the mean (\( \bar{x} \)) is \( \frac{12,680}{10} = 1268 \). This mean gives you insight into the typical date at which the tree rings were formed in the ruins at Burnt Mesa Pueblo. Remember, the mean provides a quick glance at what a typical value in your dataset looks like, but it doesn't tell you everything. Other statistics, like the standard deviation, fill in details about the spread and distribution.
Standard Deviation
While the mean gives a central point, it is the standard deviation that tells you how spread out the data points are around the mean. A low standard deviation implies the data points are clustered close to the mean, while a high standard deviation indicates they are spread out over a wide range.
To calculate standard deviation, follow these steps:
  • Subtract the mean from each data point to find the deviation of each value.
  • Square each of these deviations.
  • Sum all squared deviations.
  • Divide by the number of data points minus one (\( n-1 \)).
  • Take the square root of that quotient.
Applying these steps gives a standard deviation of approximately \( 37.29 \) for the tree-ring dates. This value indicates how much the dates vary from the mean, illustrating the variability in the data due to environmental and historical impacts.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to decide whether there is enough evidence in a sample of data to infer that a certain condition holds for the whole population. In the tree-ring study, the test checks if the mean date derived from the sample data differs significantly from the historical date of 1300.
Here's how it's done:
  • Set up two hypotheses: the null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) that asserts there's no significant difference (\( \mu = 1300 \)), and the alternative hypothesis (\( H_a \)) that claims there is a difference (\( \mu eq 1300 \)).
  • Calculate a test statistic (like \( t \)), which compares the sample data with the null hypothesis.
  • Determine the critical value based on significance levels, degree of freedom, and whether the test is one-tailed or two-tailed.
  • Make an inference by comparing the calculated test statistic with the critical value.
The process aims to verify or nullify assumptions based on significance testing, ultimately helping in understanding if Burnt Mesa Pueblo dates align with or differ from specific historical contexts.
Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted as \( \alpha \), is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. It's a threshold set by the researcher which determines how extreme the data must be to reject the null hypothesis. In our example, the significance level is set at \( 1\% \) or 0.01.
This low significance level means there is only a 1% risk of incorrectly concluding that the tree-ring dates are significantly different from 1300 A.D. This selection of \( \alpha \) reflects the need for strong evidence to claim a significant difference, ensuring that any decisions made have a very small likelihood of being erroneous. To determine whether the sample mean significantly differs from the hypothesized mean (1300), the calculated test statistic is compared with the critical value derived from \( \alpha \). If the test statistic falls beyond the critical value, it implies a significant departure from the null hypothesis. However, since the calculated test statistic was within the critical bounds in this case, we failed to reject the null hypothesis, suggesting the sample did not provide strong enough evidence for a difference.

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

Please provide the following information for Problems. (a) What is the level of significance? State the null and alternate hypotheses. (b) Check Requirements What sampling distribution will you use? What assumptions are you making? Compute the sample test statistic and corresponding \(z\) or \(t\) value as appropriate. (c) Find (or estimate) the \(P\) -value. Sketch the sampling distribution and show the area corresponding to the \(P\) -value. (d) Based on your answers in parts (a) to (c), will you reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis? Are the data statistically significant at level \(\alpha ?\) (e) Interpret your conclusion in the context of the application. Note: For degrees of freedom \(d . f .\) not in the Student's \(t\) table, use the closest \(d . f .\) that is smaller. In some situations, this choice of \(d . f .\) may increase the \(P\) -value a small amount and therefore produce a slightly more "conservative" answer. Generation Gap: Education Education influences attitude and lifestyle. Differences in education are a big factor in the "generation gap." Is the younger generation really better educated? Large surveys of people age 65 and older were taken in \(n_{1}=32\) U.S. cities. The sample mean for these cities showed that \(\bar{x}_{1}=15.2 \%\) of the older adults had attended college. Large surveys of young adults (ages \(25-34\) ) were taken in \(n_{2}=35\) U.S. cities. The sample mean for these cities showed that \(\bar{x}_{2}=19.7 \%\) of the young adults had attended college. From previous studies, it is known that \(\sigma_{1}=7.2 \%\) and \(\sigma_{2}=5.2 \%\) (Reference: American Generations by S. Mitchell). Does this information indicate that the population mean percentage of young adults who attended college is higher? Use \(\alpha=0.05\)

Consider a hypothesis test of difference of means for two independent populations \(x_{1}\) and \(x_{2} .\) What are two ways of expressing the null hypothesis?

Please provide the following information. (a) What is the level of significance? State the null and alternate hypotheses. (b) Check Requirements What sampling distribution will you use? Do you think the sample size is sufficiently large? Explain. Compute the value of the sample test statistic and corresponding \(z\) value. (c) Find the \(P\)-value of the test statistic. Sketch the sampling distribution and show the area corresponding to the \(P\)-value. (d) Based on your answers in parts (a) to (c), will you reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis? Are the data statistically significant at level \(\alpha ?\) (e) Interpret your conclusion in the context of the application. Focus Problem: Benford's Law Again, suppose you are the auditor for a very large corporation. The revenue file contains millions of numbers in a large computer data bank (see Problem 7). You draw a random sample of \(n=228\) numbers from this file and \(r=92\) have a first nonzero digit of \(1 .\) Let \(p\) represent the population proportion of all numbers in the computer file that have a leading digit of \(1 .\) i. Test the claim that \(p\) is more than \(0.301 .\) Use \(\alpha=0.01.\) ii. If \(p\) is in fact larger than \(0.301,\) it would seem there are too many numbers in the file with leading Is. Could this indicate that the books have been "cooked" by artificially lowering numbers in the file? Comment from the point of view of the Internal Revenue Service. Comment from the perspective of the Federal Bureau of Investigation as it looks for "profit skimming" by unscrupulous employees. iii. Comment on the following statement: "If we reject the null hypothesis at level of significance \(\alpha,\) we have not proved \(H_{0}\) to be false. We can say that the probability is \(\alpha\) that we made a mistake in rejecting \(H_{0}\) " Based on the outcome of the test, would you recommend further investigation before accusing the company of fraud?

Suppose the \(P\) -value in a two-tailed test is 0.0134. Based on the same population, sample, and null hypothesis, and assuming the test statistic \(z\) is negative, what is the \(P\) -value for a corresponding left-tailed test?

Are data that can be paired independent or dependent?

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.