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The heights of 18 -year-old men are approximately normally distributed, with mean 68 inches and standard deviation 3 inches (based on information from Statistical Abstract of the United States, 112 th edition (a) What is the probability that an 18 -ycar-old man selected at random is between 67 and 69 inches tall? (b) If a random sample of nine 18 -ycar-old men is selected, what is the probability that the mean height \(\bar{x}\) is between 67 and 69 inches? (c) Interpretation Compare your answers to parts (a) and (b). Is the probability in part (b) much higher? Why would you expect this?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Probability of an individual height is 0.2586, while for sample mean it's 0.6826. The sample mean probability is higher due to smaller standard error.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Normal Distribution

The problem states that the heights are normally distributed with a mean \( \mu = 68 \) inches and a standard deviation \( \sigma = 3 \) inches. We will use this information to find the probability for various scenarios.
02

Calculating Probability for Individual Heights

For part (a), we need to find the probability that an 18-year-old man is between 67 and 69 inches tall. We convert the heights to z-scores using the formula \( z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \). For 67 inches, \( z_1 = \frac{67 - 68}{3} = -\frac{1}{3} \). For 69 inches, \( z_2 = \frac{69 - 68}{3} = \frac{1}{3} \). The probability that an individual's height is between these two z-scores can be found using the standard normal distribution table.
03

Using Z-Table for Part (a)

From the Z-table, the probability for \( z = -\frac{1}{3} \) is approximately 0.3707, and for \( z = \frac{1}{3} \) is approximately 0.6293. The probability that an 18-year-old man's height is between 67 and 69 inches is the difference: \( 0.6293 - 0.3707 = 0.2586 \).
04

Calculating Probability for Sample Mean

For part (b), we need to determine the probability that the sample mean height \( \bar{x} \) of a sample of 9 men is between 67 and 69 inches. The standard deviation of the sample mean, called the standard error, is \( \sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{3}{3} = 1 \) where \( n = 9 \) is the sample size. Convert both 67 and 69 inches to z-scores using the sample mean standard deviation: \( z_1 = \frac{67 - 68}{1} = -1 \) and \( z_2 = \frac{69 - 68}{1} = 1 \).
05

Using Z-Table for Part (b)

Consulting the Z-table, the probability corresponding to \( z = -1 \) is approximately 0.1587 and for \( z = 1 \) it is approximately 0.8413. The probability that \( \bar{x} \) is between 67 and 69 is \( 0.8413 - 0.1587 = 0.6826 \).
06

Comparing the Two Probabilities

In Part (a), the probability of selecting an individual with height between 67 to 69 inches was about 0.2586. In Part (b), the probability that the mean height of samples is between 67 and 69 inches was 0.6826. The probability in part (b) is much higher because distribution of sample means has smaller standard deviation, hence the sample means are more concentrated around the population mean.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a special case of the normal distribution. It has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. This distribution is immensely useful because it allows us to determine probabilities for any normal distribution by converting to z-scores.

When we deal with any normally distributed data, we can transform the values into z-scores and use the standard normal distribution table (Z-table) to find probabilities. A z-score tells us how many standard deviations away a given datum point is from the mean. This is the foundation of calculating probabilities for both single data points and sample means.

In the exercise, we transform the heights of 18-year-old men into z-scores to find out the probabilities of certain height ranges. This involves using the z-score formula:
  • The formula is: \( z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \)
  • Here, \( x \) is the value in interest, \( \mu \) is the mean, and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation.
Converting to the standard normal distribution is a powerful technique because it simplifies probabilistic calculations across a variety of scenarios.
Sample Mean
The sample mean is the average of a sample, which offers a glimpse into the population from which the sample was drawn. In statistics, the central limit theorem tells us that the distribution of sample means approaches a normal distribution if the sample size is sufficiently large, even if the original population distribution is not normal.

This concept is crucial in the exercise when dealing with the mean height of nine 18-year-old men. Here, the distribution of these sample means will be approximately normal with the mean equal to the population mean and a standard deviation known as the standard error (SE). The standard error is calculated using:
  • The formula is: \( \sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \)
  • \( \sigma_{\bar{x}} \) represents the standard error of the mean.
  • \( \sigma \) is the original population standard deviation.
  • \( n \) is the sample size.
Because the standard error is always less than the population standard deviation (due to the square root of the sample size in the denominator), sample means tend to cluster more closely around the population mean than individual data points do.
Z-Score Calculation
The z-score calculation is an essential statistical tool for understanding how a particular data point, or a mean of data points, compares to the average of a distribution. As covered earlier, a z-score tells us the number of standard deviations a value is from the mean.

During the process of finding the z-score, you take the specific value you’re interested in, subtract the mean, and divide by the standard deviation. When calculating probabilities for a range, such as heights between 67 and 69 inches, we calculate a z-score for each endpoint and use a Z-table. The Z-table provides the probability that a value falls below a certain z-score in a standard normal distribution.
  • Important steps include:
    • Determine the z-scores for your values of interest.
    • Use the Z-table to look up the probabilities that correspond to these z-scores.
    • Subtract the probabilities to find the probability that a value falls within that range.
Understanding z-scores and their calculations allows effectively working with any normally distributed data, simplifying the process of assessing probabilities for different events.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Find the \(z\) value described and sketch the area described.Find \(z\) such that \(97.5 \%\) of the standard normal curve lies to the left of \(z\).

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